Cook Political Report Shifts 15 House Races Toward Democrats Six Weeks Before Midterms

The Cook Political Report updated its House ratings on Sept. 25, moving 15 races and putting Republicans in their weakest position of the cycle six weeks before Election Day.

Democrats are now favored in 208 districts, Republicans in 205, according to Cook. The remaining 22 races are toss-ups, 17 of them in Republican-held seats and five in Democratic-held ones. A party needs 218 seats to control the chamber.

"Typically, in midterm cycles the party out of power wins the majority of Toss Up races, which is our expectation this November," Cook's Erin Covey wrote, as reported by the Epoch Times. She noted that even a straight split of the toss-ups would hand Democrats a bare 219-seat majority. A clean sweep would put them at 230.

Covey's most likely scenario: Democrats net five to 15 seats, landing somewhere between 220 and 230. That's a projection from one forecaster, not a guaranteed outcome, but it's the same nonpartisan outfit both parties have historically treated as credible.

Which Seats Moved, and Why

Two races flipped from toss-up to lean-Democrat: Rep. Tom Kean Jr.'s seat in New Jersey's 7th District and the open Arizona 1st District. Three moved from lean-Republican to toss-up, including Rep. Monica De La Cruz's Texas 15th District and open seats in North Carolina's 11th and Florida's 22nd.

Six seats slid from likely-Republican to lean-Republican, among them Reps. Jeff Crank of Colorado, Anna Paulina Luna and Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida, and Bryan Steil of Wisconsin. Four more, including Rep. John McGuire's Virginia 5th District, dropped from solid-Republican to merely likely-Republican.

Covey blamed the economy. "In large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts," she wrote, referring to President Trump. That's Cook's read, not an established fact, but it lines up with what Fox News found in its own reporting.

Gas Prices and an Unpopular War

According to Fox News, the national average for gas is nearing $4.50 a gallon and diesel has topped $6.50, per AAA figures, with prices climbing amid renewed fighting tied to the Iran war and attacks on Russia's diesel industry. Fox reported that public polling puts cost of living as voters' top issue this cycle, and that a Fox News poll found voters trust Democrats more on inflation by a wide margin, even though Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News surveys had the parties roughly tied on the broader economy question.

Trump pushed back on the cost argument directly. "Gas prices were much higher under Biden than under 'TRUMP.' So were almost all other prices," he wrote in a social media post reported by Fox News. He also said this month that fuel costs were "a very inexpensive price to pay for what we've done," referring to strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, a comment Democrats seized on.

The Republican Counter-Case

The NRCC dismissed Cook's ratings shift, arguing Republicans have stronger campaign infrastructure and more money on hand, according to Tipp Insights. Fox News laid out the fuller case for why history might not repeat: Democrats are fighting their own internal war between the party's left flank and its establishment wing, the party's brand remains weak in polling, and Republicans are flooding the airwaves with attack ads Democrats can't currently match dollar for dollar. New Hampshire radio host Jack Heath told Fox that voters are simply looking for "prices to come down across the board," a bar either party could clear or fail to clear by November.

Redistricting cuts both ways. Cook noted that after mid-decade map redraws in seven states, Republicans are positioned to flip three seats easily and compete for more, according to the Epoch Times. But new maps in California and Utah put Democrats in position to flip four seats, offsetting much of that gain.

Missouri's Map Is Dead, for Now

One of the GOP's redistricting wins just evaporated. The Supreme Court blocked a Trump-backed Missouri congressional map that would have added a Republican-leaning seat by reshaping the district held by Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, according to NPR. It's the third time the high court has blocked the plan.

The ruling requires Missouri to use the same districts voters saw in 2022 and 2024, even though a different map was already used in the state's Aug. 4 primary. The Missouri Supreme Court had ruled earlier this month that the 2025 GOP-backed map never legally took effect because it required voter approval on the November ballot, and blamed Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins for using it in the primary anyway. Absentee ballots under the old map were already going out to Missouri voters, according to NPR.

Separately, a federal appeals court's 2-1 ruling this month allowed a voter-ID-style citizenship verification requirement to take effect ahead of Nov. 3, pausing a lower court injunction, according to Tipp Insights. Rep. Riley Moore, R-W.Va., told the Daily Signal the requirement will be key to GOP turnout. Senate Republicans have not been able to move companion legislation, the SAVE America Act, past a Democratic filibuster.

On the Senate side, CBS News' Battleground Tracker lists nine competitive races, including Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, where Republicans hold 53 seats to Democrats' 47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats there to flip that chamber too, a considerably steeper climb than the House math Cook is tracking.

With early voting already underway in some states, the next major data point will be whether gas prices keep climbing as the Iran conflict continues, and whether that keeps showing up in the district-level numbers Cook is set to update again before November.