Cook Political Report Moves 18 House Races Toward Democrats, Projects Gains of 9 to 19 Seats

With the Nov. 3 midterms less than four weeks away, the Cook Political Report released a batch of House rating changes on Friday, Oct. 9. All 18 moved in Democrats' direction.

The nonpartisan forecaster now says the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of nine to 19 seats. That would give the party between 224 and 234 of the chamber's 435 seats. A majority is 218.

Erin Covey, Cook's House analyst, wrote that Democrats now need to win only 20 percent of the Toss Up races to reach a majority, assuming every seat rated as favoring them breaks their way.

Where the ratings moved

The biggest shift was five races moving from Toss Up to Lean Democrat. Four are Republican-held:

• Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, facing Democrat Christina Bohannan. Miller-Meeks won by 0.2 percentage points in 2024.
• Rep. Zach Nunn of Iowa, facing state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.
• Rep. Ryan Mackenzie of Pennsylvania, facing retired firefighter Bob Brooks.
• Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, facing former TV anchor Janelle Stelson.

The fifth is Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, who faces Republican state Sen. John Braun. Covey wrote that her race looks closer than it should because some progressives are angry over her vote for the SAVE Act. She expects most of them to come home. Republican candidates combined for 43 percent in the August primary.

Covey wrote that three of the four Republican seats were won by less than two points in 2024 and should be the easiest Democratic pickups.

Four races slid from Lean Republican to Toss Up: Rep. Bill Huizenga of Michigan, Rep. Rob Wittman of Virginia, the open seat in Iowa's 2nd District, and North Carolina's 1st District. In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Don Davis is running in a district Covey wrote Republicans redrew last year to keep him out of Congress.

Three moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican: Kentucky's open 6th District, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, and Maine's 2nd District, where Democrat Matt Dunlap faces former Gov. Paul LePage.

Two once-safe Republican seats, held by Reps. French Hill of Arkansas and Victoria Spartz of Indiana, moved from Solid to Likely Republican. Covey wrote that a super PAC funded by Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker plans to spend more than $1 million on TV ads for Hill's opponent, Chris Jones.

Four Democratic-leaning races also firmed up, moving from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat: Reps. Susie Lee of Nevada, Tom Suozzi of New York and Laura Gillen of New York, plus Nebraska's open 2nd District.

The math

Cook's table lists 185 seats as Solid Democrat and 174 as Solid Republican. Another 16 are Likely Democrat and 18 Likely Republican, with 12 Lean Democrat and 9 Lean Republican. That leaves 21 Toss Ups, according to the PoliticsPA tally of the ratings.

Add the Likely and Lean seats to each side and Democrats lead 213 to 201. They would be five seats short of 218.

Of the 21 Toss Ups, 15 are held by Republicans and six by Democrats. One of the most-watched, Pennsylvania's 8th District between Rep. Rob Bresnahan and Democrat Paige Cognetti, stayed in the Toss Up column.

Republicans' answer

Republicans had hoped a large ad campaign would damage Democratic challengers and let vulnerable incumbents separate themselves from President Trump. Covey wrote that the spending "has yet to move the needle."

The National Republican Congressional Committee rejects the premise that the ratings settle anything. "House races are won in the districts, one by one, with battle-tested candidates and messages that work," NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement. He added that voters have "a clear contrast between common sense and crazy," and said Republicans will win in November.

Axios described the GOP's environment as already weak, tied to an unpopular war and high fuel prices. It noted that Trump is crisscrossing the country for Republican candidates while the midterms function as a referendum on his presidency. Those are Axios's characterizations. Cook's own write-up points to tariffs and Iowa's farm economy as factors in the Iowa races.

The red districts in play

Several entries are in territory Trump carried comfortably. Kentucky's 6th went for Trump by 15 points. Covey wrote that on paper it should be hard for a Democrat to win, yet polling from both parties shows Democratic prosecutor Zach Dembo and former Republican state Sen. Ralph Alvarado neck and neck.

Iowa's open 2nd District, which Trump won by 10, now has Democrat Lindsay James and Republican Joe Mitchell in a Toss Up.

Seat-count caveats apply. A rating is a forecast, not a result. In Cook's final 2024 pre-election analysis, Pennsylvania's 7th, 8th and 10th districts were all Toss Ups. Mackenzie and Bresnahan ousted sitting Democrats, while Perry held on. Fitzpatrick, rated Lean Republican, also kept his seat.

Cook says its ratings weigh district makeup, candidate strengths, the political environment, and interviews with candidates and campaign professionals. Voters decide on Nov. 3, and Cook has not said when its next update will come.

Whether the heavy Republican ad spending eventually moves any of these races is the open question for the final 24 days.