Brazil's Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Locked in Dead Heat as Money-Laundering Probe Hits Bolsonaro Campaign

Since Flávio Bolsonaro accepted the Liberal Party's nomination at São Paulo's Pacaembu stadium on July 25, Brazil's presidential race has gone from a Lula cakewalk to a genuine toss-up. The newest round of polling, released Monday, September 14, shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro within a percentage point or two of each other in every scenario pollsters can construct.

The numbers, pollster by pollster

A BTG Pactual/Nexus survey published Monday put Lula ahead of Bolsonaro 47% to 46% in a simulated runoff, according to Reuters. That's up two points for Lula from the prior week's BTG/Nexus poll, which had Bolsonaro leading 46% to 45%, his strongest showing in that survey since March. Both results sit inside the poll's two-point margin of error, meaning the race is a statistical dead heat either way. The same BTG/Nexus poll gave Lula 42% in a first-round scenario, with Bolsonaro at 37%, Augusto Cury at 6%, Ronaldo Caiado at 5%, and Renan Santos at 2%. BTG Pactual/Nexus interviewed 2,003 people September 11–13.

A separate Quaest poll commissioned by Globo, also released Monday, found Bolsonaro numerically ahead of Lula for the first time, 42% to 40%, in a runoff scenario, according to Reuters and the Buenos Aires Times. That's a shift from Quaest's September 7 poll, which had the two men tied at 41% each, and from a September 2 Quaest poll that had Lula up 42% to 41%. In first-round terms, Quaest's latest survey has Lula at 36% and Bolsonaro at 31%. Quaest surveyed 2,004 people September 10–13.

A Datafolha poll released Friday, September 11 split the difference, showing Lula holding a numerical edge of 46% to 44% in a runoff, unchanged from the prior week, according to Reuters. Datafolha's first-round numbers had Lula at 39% and Bolsonaro at 35%, up from 38% and 33% respectively the week before. Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people September 8–10.

Zoom out further and the trend line is consistent even if the exact numbers bounce around: Quaest's runoff gap was 47%-43% for Lula in mid-August, according to the Latin Times, and has since narrowed to a dead heat or a slight Bolsonaro edge depending on the poll. Undecided voters in Quaest's survey fell from 51% in mid-August to 42% once the official campaign period opened.

The corruption probe

The tightening race is now colliding with a corruption investigation into Bolsonaro himself. Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça declassified court documents on Friday, September 11 revealing that federal police opened an investigation into the 45-year-old senator in July 2025, according to Anadolu Agency. The probe centers on the financing of "Dark Horse," a biopic about Jair Bolsonaro starring American actor Jim Caviezel, and examines allegations of money laundering, corruption and currency evasion.

Investigators are looking at Bolsonaro's dealings with Daniel Vorcaro, the imprisoned controlling shareholder of Banco Master, whom authorities describe as central to what they call the largest financial fraud in Brazil's history, according to Anadolu. Text messages recovered from Vorcaro's phone allegedly show Bolsonaro soliciting donations for the film and pressing the banker to speed up payments to the production team. Anadolu reported Vorcaro disbursed at least 61 million reais, roughly $12 million, toward the film in 2025, with some of those funds allegedly landing in U.S.-based accounts tied to people close to the Bolsonaro family. The New Indian Express, citing AFP, put the transferred amount at $12.3 million from a company indirectly linked to Vorcaro. Police also raided the production company on Thursday, September 10 over alleged embezzlement of public funds, according to the New Indian Express.

Investigators are also examining whether some of that money reached Eduardo Bolsonaro, Flávio's brother, who lives in the United States after a conviction for judicial coercion connected to his father's legal proceedings, according to Anadolu.

Flávio Bolsonaro has denied wrongdoing. "I have nothing to hide; the film is totally legal," he told reporters at a campaign event in Manaus on Friday, saying the project relied strictly on "private sponsorship," according to Anadolu. No charges have been filed against him, and Brazilian law does not bar someone under investigation from running for office, according to both the New Indian Express and Anadolu.

A Supreme Court under scrutiny too

The Vorcaro fallout isn't limited to Bolsonaro. The Buenos Aires Times reports that fresh revelations tying Vorcaro to Supreme Court justices prompted the court's president to unseal the investigations, and that Justice Alexandre de Moraes, seen as close to Lula, is also facing scrutiny over alleged ties to Vorcaro. Lula's own son has separately faced corruption allegations in recent weeks and has denied wrongdoing, according to the Buenos Aires Times. Neither the Lula-son allegations nor the de Moraes scrutiny have produced charges either.

The economic backdrop

Bolsonaro's rise isn't happening in a vacuum. Brazil's economy grew just 0.5% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter, propped up almost entirely by 2.8% growth in agriculture while services and industry stalled, according to the Latin Times. The Central Bank's Focus survey now projects full-year 2026 growth near 1.9%, and the OECD projects 1.6% growth this year before a 2027 rebound. The benchmark Selic rate has come down from 15% to 14% through a cutting cycle that began in March but remains high enough to keep credit expensive. A separate trade dispute with Washington, where President Trump first threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025, has also become entangled with the campaign.

Brazil's first-round vote is scheduled for October 4. If no candidate clears 50% of valid votes, the top two finishers head to an October 25 runoff, which pollsters across BTG/Nexus, Quaest and Datafolha now consider the likely outcome. Whether the Vorcaro-linked investigation produces formal charges before then, and whether it drags in more names on both sides of the aisle, remains an open question three weeks out.