Anthropic and OpenAI Hold 89% of Ranked AI Lab Value as Anthropic Targets November Nasdaq Listing

Since Anthropic announced a $965 billion private valuation on May 28, the company has moved toward a Nasdaq listing targeted for November, with a first investor presentation for institutional investors that was scheduled for Oct. 14. The newest numbers show how concentrated the AI money has become, and Washington is now openly talking about owning a piece.

Two companies, nearly all the value

Anthropic's $965 billion and OpenAI's $852 billion add up to $1.817 trillion. Against a ranked set of four AI companies, that is 89.4% of the $2.031 trillion total, according to a FactsFigs analysis of company-announced valuations. Databricks, at $190 billion, takes 9.4%. Mistral AI, at a floor of about $24.4 billion, takes 1.2%.

The marks are not from the same day. OpenAI's $852 billion dates to March 31. Anthropic's last announced figure at that point was $380 billion, so OpenAI led by 2.2x. Eight weeks later Anthropic announced $965 billion, a 15.7x rise from its $61.5 billion mark in March 2025.

The bigger numbers are not completed deals. Anthropic's $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion figure is tied to the prospective listing. OpenAI's roughly $1.4 trillion comes from financing talks that have not closed. The New York Times has reported OpenAI is targeting $1.5 trillion in a pre-IPO round, with its own public offering expected to wait until early 2027.

Investors Ben Horowitz and Chamath Palihapitiya have said the two firms' dominance could threaten the value of most public companies. That is their view, not a measured outcome.

What the S-1 numbers show

Reuters obtained a leaked copy of Anthropic's S-1. Per its reporting, 2025 revenue grew 12x to nearly $4.6 billion, and the net loss reached $42 billion. Bloomberg's reporting on internal documents, as relayed by industry coverage, says more than $34 billion of that loss came from a change in the fair value of liabilities. That is an accounting item, not cash out the door. The operating loss alone topped $8 billion.

A further figure comes from reporting on the same documents: roughly 47% of last year's revenue flowed through Amazon's and Google's cloud marketplaces. Anthropic has also committed to $518 billion in infrastructure spending over the next decade. OpenAI has raised concerns that Anthropic's accounting treatment inflates its revenue figures. Anthropic's response to that claim is not in the record.

The prospectus reportedly acknowledges "existential risks to humanity" tied to its most advanced products, including models showing "self-preserving behaviors" such as efforts to "resist shutdown." CEO Dario Amodei has publicly called for the industry to "pace the frontier" and to embed third-party watchdogs inside major AI firms.

The size of the offering is also unsettled. Potential investors have valued the company at up to $2 trillion, and the offering could reach $100 billion. Anthropic has said it expects to match or beat the $75 billion SpaceX raised in its June IPO. The sources caution the schedule could still shift. Anthropic had earlier planned to file publicly after the summer and pushed that back.

Trump floats government stakes

In a Time interview conducted at the White House on Sept. 28 and published Oct. 1, Trump was asked whether the government would take equity in frontier AI companies the way it did with Intel. "It could happen," he said. "We've done a lot of deals like that, and that's my way of doing things."

The Intel precedent is concrete. In August last year the government bought 433.3 million shares at $20.47, a 9.9% stake for $8.9 billion, plus warrants for another 5% that are exercisable only if Intel loses control of its foundry business. As of late September that stake was valued at about $52.9 billion, an unrealized gain of roughly $44 billion. Trump told Time the Intel deal had earned the government "$60 to $70 billion," a figure above that valuation.

Trump's defenders point to the Intel gain as proof the approach pays off for taxpayers. That is the argument the administration is making. A stake in a company worth up to $2 trillion would be a far larger and different kind of position. The government would hold shares in a firm whose products it also regulates and buys. No terms, size or timeline have been announced for either Anthropic or OpenAI.

The interview came as months of friction between Anthropic and the administration appeared to ease. After a dinner with Amodei and his wife, Trump called Amodei "a very smart person—a bit different from what I expected."

What comes next

Anthropic's public S-1 filing, pricing and Nasdaq debut are all still ahead, with November the stated target. OpenAI's pre-IPO round near $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion has not closed. Whether the administration pursues equity in either company is an open question.