AeroVironment Posts Record Q4 Revenue, But Fiscal 2027 EPS Guidance Misses Analyst Estimates by 15%

The Beat

AeroVironment reported Q4 fiscal 2026 results after the market close on Monday, June 29. Revenue hit $641.62 million against a Wall Street estimate of $558.81 million, according to Benzinga Pro. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.84, topping the $1.46 analyst consensus tracked by LSEG.

Total revenue was up 133% year-over-year, according to Benzinga, driven by $256.7 million in product sales growth and $109.8 million in higher service revenue. Net income reached $63.17 million, or $1.25 per share compared to $16.66 million, or 59 cents per share, in the same quarter a year earlier.

Autonomous systems revenue of $492 million was the standout, handily clearing the $402 million forecast from StreetAccount, per CNBC.

The Backlog

Funded backlog stands at $1.2 billion as of April 30, 2026, up 65% year-over-year. That headline number requires some context. The prior period already showed a $1.1 billion backlog, so the sequential gain was modest. Year-over-year growth is real; quarter-over-quarter momentum is less dramatic than the 65% figure implies.

The Guidance Problem

AeroVironment guided fiscal 2027 revenue in the range of $2.13 billion to $2.23 billion, bracketing the analyst estimate of roughly $2.17 to $2.19 billion and essentially in line.

Adjusted EPS guidance of $3.02 to $3.34, however, fell well short of the $3.94 to $3.98 per share that LSEG analysts were expecting. That is a gap of roughly 15% at the midpoint. Revenue guidance matches; earnings guidance does not. The divergence points to margin pressure, heavier investment spending, or both in the year ahead.

CEO Wahid Nawabi attributed the company's momentum to a structural shift in how modern militaries fight. "We knew that this inflection point was going to happen sooner or later," Nawabi told CNBC. "These last couple of conflicts that have become globally well known has essentially brought this thing to the forefront."

Nawabi called fiscal 2026 "the strongest financial performance in our history" and pointed to the completed BlueHalo acquisition as a key contributor.

The Stock Move

AeroVironment shares rose approximately 15% to 19% in after-hours trading Monday, with Benzinga Pro reporting shares at $160.02 at time of publication. Regular U.S. trading for Monday ended before the earnings release, so the after-hours move reflects investor reaction to the print, not a regular-session close.

Shares are still down more than 40% year-to-date, according to CNBC. Even with the post-earnings pop, holders who bought earlier this year are sitting on significant losses. The after-hours surge does not recover that gap.

The Bull Case

The strongest argument for AeroVironment is simple: the market for what they make is exploding. The U.S. Defense Department's drone budget alone could exceed $75 billion next year, per CNBC. NATO allies are behind in unmanned systems procurement. Nawabi told CNBC directly that "our military is playing catch-up in a very fast pace."

The BlueHalo acquisition, finalized May 1, 2025, added scale and diversified the portfolio. Analysts tracked by one source maintain a unanimous Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $288.17, implying substantial upside from current levels if the defense spending wave materializes as projected.

The Bear Case

Skeptics have a legitimate point. A funded backlog that grew only from $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion sequentially suggests the pipeline is solid but not accelerating as fast as the year-over-year comparison implies. More importantly, the EPS guidance shortfall signals that converting revenue growth into earnings is harder than the top-line numbers suggest, possibly due to acquisition integration costs, supply chain investment, or margin compression on large government contracts.

The stock's 40%-plus decline this year predates Monday's earnings release, meaning the market has spent most of fiscal 2026 discounting something about AeroVironment's execution or valuation. That context matters when evaluating whether the after-hours bounce is a re-rating or a relief rally.

What Comes Next

AeroVironment held its earnings call at 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday, according to Benzinga. Analysts pressed on what is driving the EPS guidance gap versus consensus, how quickly BlueHalo integration costs roll off, and whether the autonomous systems division can sustain $492 million quarterly revenue as a baseline. The answers from that call will determine whether Monday's after-hours pop holds when regular trading resumes Tuesday morning.