Venezuela Talks Begin in Caracas Today Without Machado at the Table

Washington's seven-month experiment in running Venezuela's political transition hits a new phase today. Talks between acting President Delcy Rodriguez's interim government and an opposition delegation are scheduled to begin in Caracas, according to Reuters. The country's best-known opposition leader will not be in the room.

Maria Corina Machado, who won the Nobel Peace Prize and has been in exile since December, announced on July 27 that she will not join. In a joint statement with former presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, reported by Anadolu Ajansı, Machado said her coalition was excluded from the process entirely. "Members of the 2015 National Assembly and representatives of the regime have announced the creation of a mechanism between the two sides in which we did not participate in its design, development, or operation," the statement read.

The Trump administration removed Nicolas Maduro in a January raid and installed Rodriguez as interim president. On the government side, the delegation will be led by Jorge Rodriguez, Delcy's brother and the head of the National Assembly, who has negotiated with the U.S. and opposition before, according to Reuters. The opposition side is led by Dinorah Figuera, who heads the U.S.-recognized 2015 National Assembly cohort and returned to Caracas after years in exile in Spain under a U.S.-coordinated operation.

Three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Washington specifically asked Figuera to lead the opposition delegation because her assembly faction is the one the U.S. still recognizes as Venezuela's last democratically elected legislature. The U.S. is picking who represents the opposition at the table.

Machado wasn't just left out of the delegation. Reuters reported that before a mid-June visit by Figuera to Caracas, Machado wasn't even aware talks were being planned. A separate source told Reuters she was later informed but not invited to join, because she isn't a member of the 2015 assembly. Meanwhile, Machado has said she wants to return to Venezuela to help with the response to June's twin earthquakes, a plan U.S. officials reportedly view as bad timing. President Trump has denied media reports claiming his administration told her to stay away.

The case for excluding Machado is straightforward. She boycotted the 2015 assembly system entirely and built her political identity as an outsider to the old opposition establishment. The U.S. needs a negotiating partner with a functioning legislative pedigree the government side will recognize, and Figuera's faction has that on paper. Washington also argues, according to Reuters, that Machado doesn't have enough organized support within the negotiating apparatus to make talks work, separate from her broad popularity with voters.

But Machado won Venezuela's 2024 opposition primary and is, by every account in these sources, the country's most popular opposition figure. Ground News reported that around 300 pro-Machado demonstrators rallied in Caracas this week demanding a popular vote, arguing that sidelining the person with the most public support hollows out any claim the talks represent the Venezuelan people. A person familiar with the negotiations told Reuters: "Machado is right to distance herself from this process. If the negotiations go well and lead to free elections, she will become Venezuela's first female president. If the negotiations go badly, she will have proven her point: that negotiations need representatives who have legitimacy and who are accepted and viewed positively by the public."

Machado herself isn't trying to blow up the process. She said last week she won't stand in the way of "real progress," according to Reuters, but she wants full restoration of democratic institutions, release of all political prisoners, equal electoral guarantees, and a binding election timeline that respects what she calls the popular sovereignty shown in the 2024 vote.

The agenda for the Caracas talks includes appointing a new National Electoral Council, electing judges, and setting conditions for future elections, according to Anadolu Ajansı. Ground News also reported that Chavista supporters of the late Hugo Chavez have separately gathered in Caracas to voice "very strong unease" about the U.S.-backed process, which they describe as an "invasion." The talks face skepticism from more than one direction.

Associated Press coverage cited by Ground News described Venezuelans watching the talks with "cautious optimism," a notable contrast to a right-leaning Portuguese outlet, Observador, which framed the process sarcastically as being run "under the orders of the 'Vice-King' Rubio," a reference to Secretary of State Marco Rubio's role steering the process. That's a sharper edge than the wire coverage carries, but it raises a real question: how much of this is Venezuelan self-determination versus a Washington-scripted outcome.

No timeline has been announced for when the talks will produce results, and no election date has been set. Whether an agreement negotiated without the country's most popular opposition figure can actually convince Venezuelan voters it's legitimate remains to be seen.