US Military Has Drawn Up Iran Strike Plans That Include the MOAB, Officials Tell CNN

Since the US-Iran war began on Feb. 28, the Pentagon has run more than six months of bombing without a negotiated end in sight. On Thursday, Oct. 15, CNN reported that the military has now drawn up strike plans that include the largest non-nuclear bomb in the American arsenal.

The weapon is the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, the MOAB, nicknamed the "mother of all bombs." Multiple US officials familiar with the planning told CNN it is in the mix for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites if President Donald Trump orders combat to resume, either before or after the midterm elections.

No decision to carry out the strikes has been reported.

What the plans reportedly call for

One source told CNN that Trump ordered the military to develop additional strike packages that include "a lot of energy infrastructure" and the potential use of a MOAB. The same source said the planning language described the attack as coming "prior to US retrograde in CENTCOM AOR," meaning before American forces leave the Central Command region.

CNN's read of that phrasing: the administration could hit Iran again, declare victory and pull out fast.

A second source told CNN that plans for striking Iranian nuclear sites, including the facility known as Pickaxe Mountain, explicitly call for the MOAB. Trump has repeatedly threatened in recent months to attack Pickaxe Mountain, where the US and Israel believe Tehran has stored components of its nuclear program.

The weapon has a built-in problem

The officials' main doubt is not whether the MOAB explodes. It is whether it does anything useful against what Iran is protecting.

The bomb weighs roughly ten tons and carries an explosive yield estimated at about 11 tons of TNT. It is GPS-guided and is pushed out of the back of a C-130 cargo aircraft. It can destroy an area equivalent to nine city blocks.

But its casing is built to spread the blast across a wide area near the surface, not to bore through rock or concrete. Some officials told CNN they think it is unlikely to penetrate deeply enough to destroy suspected nuclear facilities at Pickaxe Mountain, which is believed to be fortified by layers of granite.

The MOAB has been used in combat exactly once: on April 13, 2017, against an ISIS tunnel and cave network in Nangarhar Province, Afghanistan.

Multiple sources told CNN there are doubts it would accomplish any of Trump's stated strategic objectives or tip the balance of the war.

Politics and the midterm clock

Trump announced publicly that he would not take new actions before the midterms. Several advisers told CNN they privately don't know whether that is definitive or could change before Election Day.

CNN reports the war has become deeply unpopular and that Republicans are bracing for a voter backlash. Some officials told the network they question whether the White House has a strategy that turns these plans into an actual end to the war. Only the president can decide that.

The administration's own messaging is mixed. According to CNN, some administration figures have called the war essentially won. Trump has been more guarded, stopping short of declaring victory and saying the US still has unfinished business in Iran.

Behind the scenes, CNN reports, Trump has pushed back on outside allies urging him to simply bring troops home. His argument, per the network's source, is that leaving would look like defeat.

Hormuz keeps burning

The planning comes as attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz have intensified over the past 10 days.

The Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride was damaged and caught fire while transiting the strait, then sank. All 21 crew were evacuated with no injuries reported. The Antigua and Barbuda-flagged bulk carrier Cape Dao also sank. It was hit by a projectile on Sept. 23, and maritime sources said one crew member was killed.

An analysis of International Maritime Organization data shows the two ships are the second and third vessels to sink since the war started. Singapore's maritime administration said it is concerned about the continuing attacks.

What to watch

The plans are options, not orders. The military's job is to hand the commander in chief choices, and a contingency plan is not a decision.

The open question is the sequence. CNN's source described a final round of strikes ahead of a US pullback from the region, while Trump has said publicly he will take no new action before the midterms. Whether Trump signs off on any of it, and whether the MOAB is part of the package, has not been disclosed by the White House or the Pentagon.