Ukraine's Arakhamia Says Midterms 'Doubled' Odds of U.S. Aid as Abu Dhabi Peace Talks Near

Ukraine's delegation is reading the Nov. 3 midterm results as a lifeline. Washington's Russia policy, for now, is still Trump's alone.

David Arakhamia, who heads President Volodymyr Zelensky's parliamentary group, told reporters at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington on Nov. 6 that the election changed Kyiv's odds. "It's my personal estimate, but the chances for us to get better U.S. support in terms of both financially and militarily at least doubled," he said.

He attached a timeline. "It's going to happen next year, most probably, you know, like the first quarter."

The gap between now and January

The new Congress is not seated yet. A senior European official told AFP the continent expects "two difficult months ahead" until lawmakers begin their term, and warned that Trump could make further concessions to Moscow in the meantime.

Arakhamia said Ukraine first has to get through what he called possibly the hardest winter of the full-scale war. Russian strikes are hitting electrical, heating, water and sewage systems in major cities. Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst reported from Kyiv this week on fresh waves of Russian missile and drone attacks on cities and power plants.

That is why Ukraine wants the Abu Dhabi talks to focus on getting Russia to de-escalate, "whatever it takes," Arakhamia said.

What Congress can and cannot do

Analysts are not predicting a sharp reversal. Brian Taylor, a political science professor at Syracuse University, told AFP that Democrats now control the congressional agenda. He expects members of the Democratic caucus in both chambers to try to attach military and economic assistance for Ukraine to legislation.

Taylor said the biggest change would be putting the U.S. back into the picture on aid. Trump halted new direct military aid when he took office in January 2025. "For the last two years, the Europeans have been carrying all the weight on that topic," Taylor said.

There is a hard limit. Congress would need a two-thirds majority to override a Trump veto, and AFP describes that as hard to reach.

Carrie Lee, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, put the effect more modestly. "The new Congress means that there's a floor" to delays or pullback in U.S. support, she said. In her words, Congress can "effectively say, we're not going to abandon Ukraine entirely."

Analysts also expect lawmakers to probe Trump's deal to waive sanctions on Russia so Moscow can sell diesel on global markets, a move that came as energy costs jumped after the U.S. war on Iran.

Trump says a deal is close

The White House has a different message. After an unscheduled Oval Office meeting with Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev, Trump said, "I think we're going to be very close to settling Russia-Ukraine." He added, "There's going to be an agreement. It's going to be a big agreement," and said it could include "all of Europe." He declined to give details of the conversation.

The administration's argument is that it is the party actually moving talks. Jared Kushner said the U.S., NATO and European partners held "productive and substantive discussions" on ending the war. Trump said he did not meet the Ukrainian delegation on Thursday, Nov. 5.

Kushner has also put forward a five-point European security plan ahead of the talks. Its summary says Washington wants permanent security consultations and military transparency, while insisting no country can veto another nation's alliances.

Melania Trump's Oleshky effort

On Thursday, First Lady Melania Trump hosted Russian and Ukrainian representatives at the White House. The event built on a six-day local truce in the Russian-occupied city of Oleshky, in Kherson region, that ran from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1. The pause allowed nearly 800 civilians to be evacuated and let food and medical supplies in.

She gave both delegations sealed letters to carry to Putin and Zelensky. "Together, we can create something more enduring than a temporary ceasefire," she said.

Dmitriev thanked her for her "distinguished humanitarian role." Russian human rights commissioner Yana Lantratova and Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Lubinets attended, as did Arakhamia, who urged her to start further diplomatic initiatives.

The Oleshky truce expired on Sunday, Nov. 1.

The record Kyiv is pointing to

Ukraine's complaint is about what came before the vote. Trump halted direct military aid, hosted Putin in the United States for a summit, and clashed with Zelensky in a public shouting match in the Oval Office. In the weeks before the midterms, his administration announced the Russian diesel purchase and issued the sanctions waiver. According to the Yahoo News account of Arakhamia's briefing, Trump also blamed Zelensky for the surge in fuel prices after the Iran war and pressed Kyiv to stop attacking Russian oil refineries.

Iran runs alongside

The Iran war is competing for the same attention. In a Washington Post opinion column, a U.S. official familiar with the matter said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with Trump's support, asked China to use its influence with Tehran to end the war, and that Beijing passed that message on. The column also says Trump has threatened to resume military action and that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has prepared for possible escalation.

What comes next

Ukraine, Russia and the United States are slated to hold talks in Abu Dhabi next week, the first trilateral round since February. The Ukraine Contact Group, led by the UK and Germany, is set to meet Nov. 17.

Whether the aid Arakhamia expects in the first quarter of 2027 ever arrives depends on a Congress that cannot override a veto without two-thirds support.