Two New Polls Show Talarico Leading Paxton as Texas GOP Infighting Spills Into Public View

Since Texas Republicans wrapped their midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month, two fresh polls have landed that Republican strategists themselves are calling alarming.

A Siena College/ReconMR survey conducted September 8-11 among 614 likely voters found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent in the U.S. Senate race, up from a 47-43 Talarico edge in July, according to Newsweek. The same poll showed Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa leading Governor Greg Abbott 49 percent to 45 percent, a reversal from Abbott's 46-45 lead two months earlier.

A separate Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey found a tighter race, with Talarico at 47 percent to Paxton's 46 percent, while Abbott led Hinojosa 49 percent to 46 percent, Newsweek reported. Two different pollsters, two different margins, but the same direction: a Texas Senate race that used to be an afterthought is now competitive.

Political reporter Jacob Rubashkin called the Siena/ReconMR numbers "absolutely brutal for Republicans" on X, warning they could produce a "generational wipeout" if they hold. Brendan Steinhauser, the Texas GOP strategist who managed Senator John Cornyn's 2014 reelection, told Newsweek the party is "working overtime to make sure that they don't suffer a historic loss," adding that Republicans "still might win in the end, it could be very close."

Why Republicans Are Nervous

The Texas Tribune, Houston Public Media and dentonrc all carried the same underlying reporting: national forecasters have started validating the polling shift. VoteHub now narrowly favors Talarico, and the Center for Politics has moved the Senate race to a toss-up while downgrading the governor's race from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican."

Republican consultant Matt Mackowiak, who ran Cornyn's failed primary bid against Paxton, called the environment "uncharted territory," telling the Tribune "there's a deep feeling that this could be the most competitive statewide election in a long time." Former state senator Wendy Davis, the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, said she's "never seen" an opening like this in her decades in Texas politics.

Rice University's Mark Jones described the race as a "perfect storm" for Democrats in comments to TIME: an unpopular president, an economy Texans view negatively, "the most flawed major statewide candidate that the Republican Party has had in modern memory," and a Democratic nominee Jones calls "very credible."

Trump's Money Problem

TIME reported that President Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., sat on more than $400 million through the summer while Paxton begged for help, and Trump privately doubted the GOP's midterm outlook, according to three sources familiar with his thinking, including a senior White House official. Only after weeks of pressure did MAGA Inc. commit $10 million on September 5 for ads backing Paxton and attacking Talarico.

One Trump aide told TIME the president "wants to have as much money in his account as possible when he's no longer able to raise the kind of money he can now" and "doesn't seem to care that much about the midterms." A senior adviser countered that the campaign has plans to spend "tens of millions" without tipping its hand to the press.

The GOP's Public Fights

Beyond the money, the Texas GOP has been airing its own laundry. Newsweek reported that a convention photo the party posted drew a wave of racist replies, sparking a public fight over the party's direction. That came days after backlash to Railroad Commission nominee Bo French's comments about University of Texas students, an episode The Dispatch's Michael Warren tied to broader tension on the right over immigration rhetoric. Newsweek said it reached out to French and the Texas GOP for comment.

The Case for Skepticism

RedState pushed back hard on the polling narrative, arguing the Siena/ReconMR sample of 614 likely voters, with only about 350 actually reached by phone or text, is too thin to declare a "leapfrog" against 17.7 million registered Texas voters, according to the Texas Secretary of State's rolls. That's a fair point about any single poll's limits, and pollsters themselves report a 4.3 percentage point margin of error on the Siena/ReconMR survey, meaning the Senate race could be a dead heat or a clear Talarico lead within that range.

But the skepticism has to contend with the Emerson/Nexstar poll landing in the same neighborhood independently, and with the Center for Politics and VoteHub both moving their ratings based on more than one data point. RedState also flagged a Talarico ad claiming he doesn't take corporate PAC or dark money while campaigning at a Hollywood fundraiser with Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff on September 10 with entry tickets ranging from $1,000 to $27,000, a genuine tension between his messaging and his fundraising that Talarico's campaign hasn't publicly addressed.

Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and the last time Democrats got this excited, Beto O'Rourke still lost to Ted Cruz by 2.6 points in 2018 without ever leading in a single poll. Talarico currently leads in both surveys cited here, something O'Rourke never managed. Whether MAGA Inc. opens its wallet beyond the initial $10 million commitment before November remains the open question hanging over the race.