TSMC Reports Thursday, With Analysts Forecasting Record Q3 Profit of About $23.4 Billion

Since TSMC lifted its 2026 capital spending forecast and unveiled an extra $100 billion for Arizona in July, the AI chip demand behind those decisions has only grown louder. This Thursday, Oct. 15, the company reports third-quarter earnings. Nothing has been reported yet, so everything below about profit is an estimate.

What analysts expect

According to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 16 analysts, TSMC will post third-quarter net profit of T$746.3 billion ($23.4 billion). That would be a 65% jump from a year earlier. SmartEstimates weight the forecasts of analysts with better track records more heavily.

Another tally puts the figure slightly lower, near NT$740.8 billion, a 64% increase. Either number would clear the bar.

The record to beat is T$706.56 billion, the second-quarter result. Anything above that would be the company's highest quarterly net income ever and its 11th consecutive quarter of profit growth. It would also be the sixth straight record quarter.

The earnings call, where management will give fourth-quarter and updated full-year guidance, is scheduled for 0600 GMT, or 2 p.m. Taiwan time.

The revenue number is already out

TSMC reported its third-quarter revenue last week. It came in at NT$1.49 trillion, about $46.71 billion, up 50% from a year earlier. That beat the LSEG SmartEstimate of NT$1.46 trillion.

It also cleared the company's own guidance. In July, TSMC projected third-quarter revenue of $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion. The actual figure landed above the top of that range.

September revenue alone reached NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% year over year. Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 totaled NT$3.90 trillion, up 41.1%.

TSMC currently guides to 2026 revenue growth of slightly more than 40% in U.S. dollar terms. Morgan Stanley analyst Charlie Chan wrote in an Oct. 6 report that he expects the company to raise that to the low-to-mid 40% range, driven by demand for its 3-nanometre chips.

Why the AI buildout matters here

Analysts say demand for TSMC's AI chipmaking capacity and its CoWoS advanced packaging technology remains strong. The company is a key supplier to Nvidia and Apple. Its market value is around $2.1 trillion, almost double that of South Korea's Samsung Electronics, and it is Asia's most valuable company.

In the second quarter, high-performance computing, a category that includes AI chips, made up 66% of revenue. Chips on 7nm and smaller processes were 77% of wafer revenue.

The stock has not been the standout. TSMC's Taipei-listed shares are up 63% this year, broadly in line with a 69% gain for the broader Taiwan market.

Money, Arizona and Texas

TSMC is investing $265 billion in Arizona chip factories, including the additional $100 billion announced in July. On its July call, the company raised its 2026 capex forecast to $60 billion to $64 billion, up from a prior range of $52 billion to $56 billion. Capex is expected to rise further to support expansion in Taiwan, Arizona and elsewhere.

Texas is the open question. In September, Reuters reported that TSMC was evaluating a potential investment there. Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said his companies would build and operate the Terafab AI chip complex, with TSMC potentially subleasing part of it. Analysts expect TSMC to be pressed on Texas during the call.

Chan argues a Texas expansion could become necessary in about five years, given growing customer demand and limited space at the Arizona site.

Morningstar senior equity analyst Phelix Lee sees less urgency. Some of the planned Arizona fabs have not been built yet. "Texas is a good location for a 2030s or 2040s expansion grand plan, given its long history of semiconductor ecosystem and talent pool," Lee said. "It may be a dangling carrot to preempt potential US trade and other policies."

TSMC has not announced a Texas investment. Management's comments on Thursday are the first chance to hear whether the company confirms or plays down the talk.

Pricing and the wider week

The call is also expected to offer clues on potential price adjustments for 2027. For customers building AI infrastructure at this scale, a pricing move from the dominant advanced-chip foundry feeds straight into their costs.

TSMC reports amid a heavy week. Chip-equipment maker ASML reports Wednesday. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs report Tuesday, with Bank of America on Wednesday. U.S. S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are expected to jump more than 30%, according to LSEG IBES, though most of that growth comes from tech.

Markets are also nervous about inflation. Treasury yields hit 24-year highs this month as energy costs raised concerns that inflation could stay elevated. Monday's session was thin, with Japan closed for a holiday and the U.S. Treasury market shut for Columbus Day. South Korean stocks fell 3.6% while Taiwanese shares were unchanged.

The number to watch Thursday is the guidance. If Chan is right, TSMC lifts its full-year growth forecast into the low-to-mid 40s. If capex moves above the current $60 billion to $64 billion range, the Texas question gets harder to dodge.