Trump Says He Expects Trilateral Meeting With Xi and Putin at Shenzhen APEC Summit; Beijing Does Not Rule It Out

Since the Iran war and the Qatar-brokered diplomacy around it moved to the center of Washington's foreign-policy agenda, the White House has been looking for an exit. On Sunday, Nov. 8, Trump pointed to one: a three-way meeting with the leaders of China and Russia.

Speaking to reporters on the tarmac, Trump said he is going to China and that "one of the meetings I think will be with President Putin and President Xi, and that'll be interesting." He added: "We'll talk a lot of things, including denuclearization, but we'll be talking a lot of things. We're trying to end the war in Iran."

The venue is the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, set for Nov. 18 and 19. China is hosting this year's gathering of 21 member economies.

What Beijing and Moscow have said

Beijing has not confirmed a meeting. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Monday, Nov. 9, that China is "in communication with relevant parties" about a meeting among the three heads of state. That is not a yes. It is also not a no.

The Kremlin said on Oct. 21 that work was underway to arrange it. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was a "general understanding among the participants of this possible meeting that it would be worthwhile and extremely useful." The Financial Times reported that American, Chinese and Russian officials have already held discussions on the idea.

The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Putin wants the three-way format to broker a Ukraine peace deal favorable to Moscow. No final arrangements have been announced.

Trump's Iran claims

Trump framed the talks around the Iran war and described what he called a tightening squeeze on Tehran. "We have Operation Iron Gate that just went into effect," he said. "That means nothing comes in by land, and as you know, the naval blockade, nothing comes in by water."

Those are Trump's descriptions of the measures. The sources do not detail how Iron Gate works or how it is enforced.

SCMP quoted Chinese observers who see Beijing as a potential neutral mediator offering a diplomatic platform, not as a government ready to pressure Tehran into a deal. SCMP also reported that analysts see the administration under pressure to deliver a breakthrough after the U.S. midterms.

The arms-control problem

Trump put denuclearization on the agenda. China has not signed on to that conversation. Beijing has resisted pressure to join trilateral arms-control talks with Washington and Moscow, citing its smaller arsenal.

That leaves a headline topic with one of the three principals already on record against the format.

Skeptics on the value of the summit

Analysts quoted in the reporting are not expecting much. Su Liuqiang of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies told Chinese state media that Russia is "most enthusiastic" of the three and that an informal exchange is likelier than a formal summit. He cited "substantial political resistance in the U.S.," saying anti-Russia sentiment remains strong in the U.S. and among European allies, with opposition to "negotiating with Moscow while bypassing Ukraine and Europe."

Danny Russel, a former senior State Department official in the Obama administration now at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Putin stands to gain the most diplomatically. He added that Trump's advisers have warned him to steer clear of Ukraine in the discussions.

Sun Yun of the Stimson Center said Russia would probably use the summit to nudge China and the U.S. toward Moscow's positions on Ukraine. Craig Singleton of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies cautioned that the meeting might yield few concrete results.

The Xi calendar

The trilateral would sit on top of a bilateral Trump-Xi meeting in Shenzhen. It would be their third this year, after Trump's visit to Beijing in May and Xi's trip to Washington in September, which included a Sept. 24 state dinner. They are due to meet again at the G20 in Miami at the end of the year.

Both governments describe their goal as "a constructive relationship of strategic stability," even as they trade blows over tariffs, semiconductor restrictions, rare earths and Taiwan. The current trade truce is scheduled to expire in January.

Breitbart noted that a Putin meeting would be only the second in-person encounter between Trump and Putin in his second term, which began in January 2025.

Ukraine is still being hit

The diplomacy is running alongside active fighting. Russia struck Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities again over the weekend. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said a missile attack early Saturday damaged a residential building, and the city's military administration said two people were injured and a building housing a kindergarten was hit. Klitschko said the capital's energy supply is "extremely difficult."

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday that Ukraine has intelligence that Russia is preparing new strikes on energy, Dnipro bridges and civilian infrastructure. He has asked allies for Patriot missiles.

Separate three-way talks among Ukraine, Russia and the United States are planned in Abu Dhabi next week, the first trilateral peace discussions since February. Whether Shenzhen produces a meeting at all, and in what format, is likely to be clearer after those talks and before the summit opens on Nov. 18.