Quebec Separatists Win Election, Fall Short of Majority as Alberta Independence Vote Looms

The Parti Québécois is set to form Quebec's next government after Monday's provincial election, with leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon on track to become premier. The party was projected to win roughly 59 seats, according to CTV News and CityNews Montreal, falling short of the 64 required for a majority in the 127-member National Assembly.

The result ends eight years of rule by the Coalition Avenir Québec. The CAQ, which held 79 seats heading into the vote, was shut out entirely, according to CityNews Montreal and the Canadian Press report carried by townandcountrytoday. CAQ leader Christine Fréchette, who took over after François Legault's resignation earlier this year, lost her own riding in Trois-Rivières.

Charles Milliard's Liberals will form the official opposition for a third straight election with roughly 40 seats, CTV News reported. Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party of Quebec crossed into the legislature for the first time with 19 seats, clearing the 12-seat threshold for official party status. Québec solidaire, the other sovereigntist party in the race, took nine seats and could hold the balance of power on any referendum vote.

A Minority Government, Not a Mandate

St-Pierre Plamondon acknowledged the limits of his win on election night. "Quebecers elected the Parti Québécois asking it to work with the other parties, and I heard that message," he told supporters, according to the Associated Press. Both the Liberals and Conservatives have said they will fight to block any sovereignty referendum, meaning the PQ's path to a third independence vote runs through a legislature that does not want one.

The PQ campaigned on holding a referendum during this term, but St-Pierre Plamondon has said he won't call one until President Donald Trump leaves the White House in January 2029, citing the tariff fight and economic uncertainty it has caused. He framed independence in explicitly cultural terms: "Quebec just wants to exist on its own like other countries of the world," he said, adding that French-speakers represent a small fraction of North America and that the project is about survival, not exclusion. "The project for independence is not about excluding you," he told English-speaking Quebecers and the rest of Canada, per the Associated Press.

Vote Split, Not a Separatist Surge

Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, told the Associated Press the result reflects Quebec's fractured multiparty field rather than a jump in support for leaving Canada. Polling cited by the Guardian and the Associated Press puts actual support for sovereignty at about 30 percent, near historic lows. The PQ itself won only three seats in 2022, the worst showing since its founding in 1968, before climbing to seven ahead of this campaign through four straight by-election wins, according to townandcountrytoday's Canadian Press report.

A party can win a plurality of seats in a five-way field without winning over a majority of voters on its core issue, and that appears to be exactly what happened here.

Policy Fights Ahead

Beyond the referendum question, the PQ campaigned on cutting temporary immigration to Quebec by more than half, tabling legislation to abolish the province's ties to the British monarchy and redirecting the lieutenant-governor's funding toward homelessness programs, according to the Canadian Press. The party has also pledged to block a proposed high-speed rail line linking Quebec and Ontario, a project backed by Ottawa. St-Pierre Plamondon said the government will present an economic update this autumn aimed at cost-of-living relief and homelessness, per CityNews Montreal.

Carney's Bigger Problem

Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters Monday he would work with whoever Quebec voters chose, according to the Guardian. But Béland noted the timing is awkward. Quebec's vote lands barely two weeks before Albertans go to the polls on October 19 to decide whether to begin their own process toward leaving Canada, a referendum driven by economic grievances over oil and federal policy rather than language and culture. "Seeing that a pro-independence party won in Quebec barely two weeks before an independence-related referendum takes place in Alberta might suggest to the Trump administration that national unity remains a major issue in Canada despite the popularity of Mark Carney," Béland said, per Al Jazeera.

Whether that reading holds depends on what happens in Alberta on October 19 and on whether the PQ's minority government can survive confidence votes in a legislature where the Liberals and Conservatives have already said they'll block a referendum outright.