NFL Brief Calls Prediction Markets Sports Gambling; CFTC Says League Declined to Sign an MOU

The fight over who polices prediction markets has pulled in the country's biggest sports league, a voting-rights think tank and tribal gaming regulators, and the midterm elections are putting the question in front of voters.

The NFL goes to court

The NFL filed an amicus brief on Thursday arguing that prediction markets fall under the sports gambling umbrella and should be regulated by states.

"Billions of dollars will be bet on NFL games through prediction markets each season, and any delay from the Court will result in increasing consumer harm and risk to game integrity," the league wrote.

The league also took aim at the federal regulator. It said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has failed "even to reference" objectionable contracts the NFL identified months ago. Those include markets on coaching and officiating decisions and injuries, the kind that could be swayed by inside information. The NFL says operators like Kalshi still list them.

The league sent operators a letter objecting to those markets just before the season began. It has yet to partner with a prediction market. It does have deals with official online sportsbooks.

The filing comes as New Jersey challenges a federal appeals court ruling that favored Kalshi's position that federal commodities law overrides state gambling regulations.

The CFTC pushes back

The CFTC disputes the NFL's account of the relationship. "Since day 1, the CFTC has engaged with the NFL regarding the agency's rulemaking agenda and policy priorities," said Brooke Nethercott, the agency's public affairs director. "It's unfortunate the NFL declined to sign an MOU with the CFTC which would've provided the league the ability to better discuss, cooperate, and exchange information with us."

A CFTC source went further. The source said that "just weeks ago, several senior NFL staff members notified senior CFTC staff that they were on the verge of commercial partnerships with several prediction market operators." That claim is anonymous. The same source said the NFL's brief "makes clear that it is most interested in regulating the regulator, not game integrity."

An NFL source responded that the dispute is not about opposing prediction markets. "If the CFTC were to adopt the same robust regulatory approach as states, this would be less of an issue," the source said, adding that it is unclear whether the Commission has the resources or staff to adequately regulate sports betting.

Kalshi said the CFTC is actively policing sports-related markets and that its ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the NFL's concerns. Polymarket said it is collaborating with the CFTC, SEC and other professional leagues toward a harmonized federal framework.

What the platforms say

Kalshi and Polymarket argue they are not casinos. Their position, as laid out in the ICT reporting on the dispute, is that they offer futures contracts, comparable to the hedging contracts a farmer might buy against feed or fertilizer prices.

There is a structural difference behind that argument. On a prediction market, users set the terms of event contracts and the platform acts as matchmaker and clearinghouse. At a sportsbook, the house sets the odds and takes the other side of every bet. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket have faced numerous lawsuits over whether they are gambling platforms or financial markets.

State and tribal gaming regulators call that framing a dodge. They say the products sidestep their authority and could cost states and tribal nations billions in gaming revenue. Jamie Hummingbird, chairman of the National Tribal Gaming Commissioners & Regulators Association, told the Senate Indian Affairs Committee: "When you wager something of value on the outcome of a sporting event, it's sports wagering. Relabeling the wager as an event contract or a prediction market or derivative does not change what it is."

Harry Levant, a recovering gambling addict and director of gambling policy at Northeastern University School of Law's Public Health Advocacy Institute, told the same committee on Aug. 4 that the products are easier to fall into than traditional gambling. All it takes, he said, is a smartphone and a credit or debit card. Levant pleaded guilty in 2015 to 13 financial crimes after embezzling $2 million from clients to fund his gambling.

Election odds reach voters

More than $220 million has been wagered on the 2026 midterms, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Kalshi has deals with CNN, CNBC and Fox Corporation. Polymarket has partnerships with Dow Jones and Substack, and election forecaster Nate Silver joined its advisory board over the summer.

A Brennan Center-funded survey of 1,994 registered voters, conducted Sept. 21, tested what that exposure does. Respondents picked likely winners among pairs of hypothetical congressional candidates, shown with NBC News polling and Kalshi odds that varied randomly.

When Kalshi favored a candidate, voters were 10 to 20 percentage points more likely to say that candidate would win, regardless of what the polls showed.

The same respondents were not fans of the markets. Seven in 10 disapprove of betting on elections. Fewer than one in five think the markets are accurate. More than 8 in 10 want stronger government action. The Brennan Center is an advocacy organization, and the survey is a single poll of hypothetical races, not a measure of real-world voting behavior.

Researchers at the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public warn that market odds are not forecasts. Conventional models combine polling with economic and demographic fundamentals. Market prices reflect the bets users have placed. But the center also notes that polling fails too. In Michigan's Democratic Senate primary, polls showed Abdul El-Sayed with a double-digit lead over Haley Stevens. He won by one point.

Fans are pushing back too

The backlash is not limited to regulators. CNN Sports heard from dozens of bettors who dislike the marriage of prediction markets and pro sports. MLB struck a league-level deal at the start of the season, and nearly a quarter of its teams added their own over the summer.

JJ Allison, 25, makes his living as a professional prediction market trader because the platforms do not limit winners the way sportsbooks do. He still told CNN that "the permeation of 'gambling' into every fabric of society is incredibly detrimental."

What comes next

The NFL's brief asks the court not to wait, citing the volume of trading and the uncertainty around it. The lawsuits over how to classify these platforms continue, and the question of who regulates them remains open.

The midterms come first, with live market odds on the screens of three major news networks.