New York Gov. Hochul's Net Favorability Drops Below Trump's in Siena College Poll

Since Unbiased Headlines last covered New York's political landscape, a fresh Siena College survey has deepened an already striking trend: Kathy Hochul is now less popular in deep-blue New York than Donald Trump.

The numbers are stark. According to the Siena College poll, 34% of likely New York voters view Hochul favorably, against 54% who view her unfavorably. That's down from 39%-50% in the previous Siena poll from August. Trump, by comparison, sits at 39% favorable and 57% unfavorable in the same state.

Trump is underwater by 18 points. Hochul is underwater by 20 points. In New York.

Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg put it plainly: "It is also worth noting that Hochul's favorability rating, 20 points under water, is worse than Trump's, 18 points under water. To repeat, Kathy Hochul has a lower net favorability rating in New York than Donald Trump." Greenberg also flagged that while every other figure polled moved no more than a point or two, Hochul's numbers fell nine points in a single polling cycle.

Where She's Bleeding Support

The damage is spread across almost every voter group. Among independents, only 18% view Hochul favorably. Among voters aged 18 to 24, it's 24%. Among Democrats, she retains positive numbers only with liberals and Black voters.

Her job approval tracks the same direction. Just 39% of New Yorkers say Hochul is doing a good job as governor; 56% say she's doing a poor job. That's a record low, and according to Siena's data, it caps months of nearly uninterrupted decline.

What complicates this picture: separate polling has shown New Yorkers actually support several of Hochul's specific policy positions, including her decision to pause congestion pricing. Voters aren't necessarily rejecting her agenda item by item. They're rejecting her.

The Political Fallout

The timing is damaging for national Democrats. Hochul has positioned herself to lead a state-level coordinated campaign aimed at flipping key battleground House districts in New York, seats that could matter in any fight for the House majority. The New York Times has reported that candidates in those districts are willing to take her organizational support but are not eager to campaign alongside her publicly. That's a brutal signal: her name has become a liability, not an asset, even within her own party's electoral strategy.

The Strongest Defense

Fair to Hochul: governing a state like New York is genuinely hard, and short-term approval collapses can reflect media cycles and political environment rather than durable voter sentiment. Some governors have recovered from similar troughs. The poll was conducted among likely voters, a sample that can skew more conservative than a general registered-voter universe in an off-year period. And on the ERA ballot measure, the same poll found 64% of likely New York voters support enshrining abortion rights, LGBTQ protections, and other civil rights protections into the state constitution. That result suggests the Democratic-aligned policy environment in New York remains intact even if Hochul personally does not.

But none of that changes the core data point: a sitting Democratic governor in one of the country's most Democratic states is polling below the sitting Republican president.

What Comes Next

The unresolved question is whether this is a Hochul-specific collapse or an early indicator of a broader mood shift in New York heading into competitive House races. Hochul's coordinated campaign infrastructure is already in motion, but her ability to drive Democratic turnout and enthusiasm will be tested directly in those battleground districts. If candidates continue to keep her at arm's length, the value of that operation shrinks considerably. New York's role as a firewall or a pickup opportunity for either party in the House remains genuinely uncertain.