New NYT/Siena Polls Put Democrats Ahead in Texas and Alaska as a Rival Texas Poll Shows a Dead Heat

Since Thursday's reporting on Democrats' double-digit generic-ballot lead and the GOP's fight to flip Senate seats of its own, a fresh batch of state-level polling has sharpened the picture of exactly which Senate races are now in play.

New York Times/Siena University polls released Saturday, October 3, found Democrats leading by 6 points in the Texas Senate race, 7 points in Alaska, and 3 points in Ohio among likely voters. Republicans held a 1-point edge in Iowa, and Kansas came back tied. The Ohio, Iowa and Kansas results are all within the polls' margins of error, roughly 4.5 to 4.6 points, meaning those three races are statistically even. The full sample included 2,946 likely voters across the five states, conducted between September 21 and October 1, with an overall margin of error of 2.1 points, according to the Times/Siena data.

The same polling found Trump's approval underwater in all five states, ranging from 38 to 41 percent, with disapproval between 55 and 60 percent. Ohio was his worst state in the set, at 38 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval. Independents disapproved of Trump 71 percent to 27 percent, and voters aged 18 to 29 disapproved 75 percent to 21 percent, per the same survey.

But the Texas numbers aren't settled. A Stratus Intelligence poll conducted September 22-24 among 865 likely voters, sponsored by the group Texans for a Conservative Majority, found Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state legislator James Talarico tied at 48 percent each, according to Breitbart News. That came days after a Marist poll conducted September 17-20 showed Talarico ahead by 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent. Paxton's favorability sat at 41 percent favorable, 55 percent unfavorable in the Stratus survey, while Talarico's was 46 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable.

A poll paid for by a conservative advocacy group found a dead heat in the same window where the Times/Siena and Marist surveys found Talarico ahead by mid-single digits. Republicans skeptical of the broader polling trend have a legitimate point of reference here. New York Times data analyst Nate Cohn, writing about the same run of red-state polls, cautioned that "leading polls in September is not the same thing as winning in November," noting that polls have historically overestimated Democrats in Republican-leaning states. Whether the Stratus result reflects a real shift back toward Paxton or simply reflects a different turnout model than Times/Siena or Marist used is not something these sources resolve.

Elsewhere on the map, the Cook Political Report moved its ratings on September 23, shifting Kansas from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican" in the race between Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, and nudging South Carolina from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" in the race between Sen. Lindsey Graham, seeking reelection, and Democrat Annie Andrews. Cook also moved Georgia from "lean Democrat" to "likely Democrat," citing Sen. Jon Ossoff's fundraising edge over Rep. Mike Collins. Cook's Jessica Taylor rated overall Senate control a toss-up, with Democrats projected to net between one and five seats; they need four to win the majority.

CNN, meanwhile, reported that New Hampshire has climbed into the group of seats most likely to flip, forcing Democrats to spend time playing defense in a state they'd counted as safe, even as they chase red-state pickups elsewhere. CNN's Poll of Polls put Trump's national approval at 35 percent. A Reuters/Ipsos poll cited by CNN found 46 percent of Democrats "very enthusiastic" about voting in November compared with 31 percent of Republicans.

Fox News' Power Rankings, compiled from its own polling average, showed Democrats with a 7-point edge among all voters (49-42) and an 11-point edge among likely voters (53-42) on the generic ballot, a wider and steadier lead than Republicans held at this point in the 2022 cycle. Fox also reported gas prices at $4.48 a gallon, up 50 percent from $2.98 when the Iran war began, and noted that Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson became the second Republican Senate candidate, after Maine's Susan Collins, to call for an end to the conflict.

Republicans aren't without resources. Trump's political operation, including MAGA Inc. and the newly formed No Going Back PAC, is reserving tens of millions in fall advertising after the president pledged up to $500 million for GOP candidates, according to CNN. Conservative strategist Ryan Girdusky told the Daily Wire that Georgia and North Carolina look "pretty dire" for the GOP but said Republicans still have 34 days to close the gap everywhere else. The next test comes as early voting begins in several of these states in the coming weeks, when ballots cast will finally replace polling averages as the measure that matters.