Macron's Approval Falls to Record-Low 16% as France's 2027 Presidential Race Heats Up

Emmanuel Macron's approval rating has hit 16%, according to an Ipsos bva-CESI poll reported by Le Figaro. That's down from 21% in July and the lowest number of his presidency, which began in 2017.

Even inside his own camp, the numbers are ugly. Only 53% of supporters of Macron's centrist governing bloc, made up of the Horizons, Modem, and Renaissance parties, still view him favorably.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu isn't faring much better. His approval sits at 20%, down from 27% in July, per the same Ipsos survey.

Every minister in the current government is underwater. Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin leads the pack at 38% approval. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez sits at 25%. Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot is at just 12%.

How France got here

Macron won reelection in April 2022 with 58.5% of the second-round vote against Marine Le Pen. According to an analysis published by Daily Sabah, that margin reflected a structural refusal by French voters to hand power to the far right, not genuine enthusiasm for Macron's program.

The cracks showed almost immediately. Legislative elections in June 2022 stripped Macron's Ensemble coalition of its parliamentary majority, producing a three-way split in the National Assembly between Ensemble, the left-wing NUPES alliance, and Le Pen's National Rally, according to Daily Sabah's account. French politics has no real tradition of formal coalition-building, and the arrangement proved unworkable.

Macron's response, per Daily Sabah, was to gamble. After the National Rally roughly doubled Ensemble's vote share in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called a snap legislative election, betting it would clarify the political landscape. It didn't. The result was a hung legislature and a run of government collapses without precedent in the Fifth Republic: Michel Barnier's government fell to a no-confidence vote within three months of forming, François Bayrou's government collapsed over a budget dispute, and Sébastien Lecornu resigned after less than a day in office before being reappointed, according to Daily Sabah's timeline.

The 2027 field

Macron is barred from seeking a third consecutive term under Article 6 of the French Constitution. The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027, according to Daily Sabah.

The same Ipsos survey found the French public isn't enthusiastic about any of the declared candidates, but the levels of dissatisfaction vary sharply. La France Insoumise leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon draws 70% dissatisfaction, the worst of the field. Green party leader Marine Tondelier is at 61%, and former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal is at 60%.

Édouard Philippe, the former prime minister and current Mayor of Le Havre often described as the centrist bloc's best hope, has seen his negative rating climb 12 points since July to 57%, while his support dropped 4 points to 19%.

Marine Le Pen draws 52% dissatisfaction, worse than a majority but still the lowest of any candidate tested. That tracks with other recent polling, which Breitbart reports has consistently shown Le Pen positioned to win both rounds of next April's election.

Seven months is a long runway in French politics, and Macron's own 2022 comeback shows polling snapshots this far out don't always hold. Ipsos itself is measuring sentiment in September 2026, not an actual vote. Whether Le Pen's current advantage survives a real campaign, debates, and whatever legal or political developments emerge between now and April 18, 2027, is not something a single poll can settle.

Le Pen isn't popular in an absolute sense. 52% of the country says it would be dissatisfied with her election. She simply polls better than every declared rival on that same measure, which is a statement about the weakness of the field as much as it is about her own strength.

The next major test comes when France's 2027 budget negotiations move through the National Assembly this fall. Whether Lecornu's government can survive a budget process that has already broken two of his predecessors, and whether Attal, Philippe, or another centrist figure can consolidate a bloc that Daily Sabah describes as still searching for a post-Macron identity, will shape the race ahead.