Israel Count Passes 92% With Netanyahu Bloc Near 54 Seats, Eisenkot's Near 48, and 430,000 Special Ballots Still Pending

Since polls closed Tuesday night, Oct. 27, the count of Israel's 26th Knesset election has passed 92% of ballots, and the arithmetic has barely moved: no camp is near 61 of 120 seats.

Recent projections put Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc at 53 to 54 seats and Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc at 47 to 49. Arab parties stand at a record 19, according to the latest projections. The Joint List has at least 12 and Ra'am has seven. Turnout was 77.7%, the highest since 1999.

What is still uncounted

The Central Elections Committee has finished or nearly finished counting ballots cast at regular polling stations. What remains is the "double envelope" vote: soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients and staff, prisoners, evacuees and voters with disabilities. The committee estimates 430,000 to 480,000 of these ballots.

Each one needs checking before it is counted. Staff match the outer envelope, which carries the voter's details, against the registered polling stations to confirm nobody voted twice. Only then is the anonymous inner envelope opened.

The New York Times noted that in Israel's 2022 election these special ballots tended to favor Netanyahu and his allies. The Daily Wire argues the soldiers' vote could add to his total. Nearly 80% of IDF soldiers voted, according to The Guardian's live coverage. A shift of a few seats is plausible. Reaching 61 from 54 would take far more.

Counting is expected to finish Thursday, Oct. 29. Official results are expected by Oct. 30 and formally published Nov. 4, according to Hindustan Times.

Herzog sets the timeline

President Isaac Herzog told a gathering at his residence that parties must "do everything, certainly after yesterday, so as not to hold another election." He asked everyone who comes to him to come "with an open mind."

He said he will receive the official results next week and then begin consultations with party leaders on who should try to form a government. Netanyahu remains caretaker prime minister until a government is sworn in.

The Arab parties and the unity-government question

The opposition bloc, with Arab parties, has more seats than Netanyahu's camp. That does not make it a governing majority. Eisenkot has not committed to working with Arab lawmakers, and on Wednesday he pledged to build "a stable Zionist government" without mentioning them. Netanyahu has ruled out any partnership with Arab parties.

The Arab-led parties have offered external support to Eisenkot's bloc without joining a coalition. Joint List lawmaker Ofer Cassif told Army Radio: "More elections would be a gift to Netanyahu. The ball is in the hands of the change bloc." Democrats leader Yair Golan has urged the opposition bloc to unite with the Arab parties to reach a majority.

The Daily Wire argues Netanyahu has the stronger hand: he can wait for the soldiers' ballots, try to peel off opposition defectors, or push for a fresh election in which, it says, ultra-Orthodox turnout would rebound. The New York Times reports that some Netanyahu allies are floating a broad unity government with Eisenkot and other centrists. That would keep Netanyahu in office as long as he stays on top. Eisenkot has called Netanyahu unfit to lead.

Netanyahu told supporters early Wednesday that Likud is the largest party and that "we must form a strong right-wing government." Eisenkot said the public "opted for change." Netanyahu's bloc is down from the 68-seat coalition he led in the outgoing Knesset, according to CNN's tally of the previous Knesset.

Security rhetoric turns personal

A new fight has opened over Iran. Eisenkot told Netanyahu: "don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs." He was responding to Netanyahu's warnings in the campaign's final days that Israel could strike Iran again.

Defense Minister Israel Katz said Eisenkot had urged senior military officials not to obey directives from the prime minister, from Katz or from other relevant security authorities. In a post on X, Katz called this "an anti-democratic statement detached from reality." Eisenkot's side has not been quoted answering that charge directly. His own remark was aimed at Netanyahu's use of security warnings.

President Donald Trump said his endorsement helped Netanyahu outperform polling, according to The Guardian. Exit polls on election night had initially favored the opposition before reversing overnight.

Markets

In Wednesday trading the Tel Aviv 125 was down about 2.5% and below the 4,000 mark, according to live market reporting. Investors are pricing a drawn-out coalition fight rather than a clean result.

What comes next

The double-envelope count is due to finish Thursday. Herzog's consultations follow once official results reach him next week. If no candidate can assemble 61 seats after that, Israel faces a second election, with Netanyahu as caretaker in the meantime.