Democrats Lead Final Marist Poll by 8 Points a Week Before Midterms, While Senate Races in Texas and South Carolina Sit Tied

Seven days out, the generic ballot favors Democrats. The final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll has them at 52% to Republicans' 44% among likely voters. Among registered voters the gap is 10 points, down from 12 last month, a change within the margin of error.

The race has barely moved. Democrats have led in every Marist survey since last November.

Marist's Lee Miringoff said the edge comes from partisan crossover. "Democrats are getting more Republicans than Republicans are getting Democrats," he said. Independents break for Democrats by 13 points, and Miringoff said Democrats "should have a good night."

The poll offers one historical comparison. In October 2018 Democrats held a 9-point lead in Marist's survey, then picked up 40 House seats.

Votes already banked

More than 30 million ballots have been cast nationwide, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. That includes 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person.

About 1 in 5 likely voters in the Marist poll say they have already voted, and that group favors Democrats 68% to 31%. Voters who haven't cast ballots yet split 48% to 48%.

Republicans are counting on Nov. 3. Half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person that day, compared with 31% of Democrats.

Enthusiasm also favors Democrats. In Marist's numbers, 71% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about voting, against 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents. A Fox News Poll in Texas found a similar gap: 69% of Democrats extremely interested versus 61% of Republicans.

The Epoch Times Morning Brief noted that Republican favorability fell below 40% in the latest RealClearPolitics polling summary. It also noted that the president's party historically loses House seats in a sixth-year midterm. Mid-decade redistricting, though, has left Republicans a slight edge in the House map, so a Democratic majority could be thin.

The Senate is where it gets tight

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Four Democratic pickups would flip the chamber.

In Texas, a Fox News Poll of 1,398 likely voters, conducted Oct. 15-19 with a margin of error of 2.5 points, has Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49%. Talarico led 51% to 49% in September.

The same poll shows Texas voters favoring Republican control of the Senate, 51% to 47%. Talarico leads Hispanic voters 64% to 34%. Nearly 3 in 10 Republicans who don't identify with the MAGA movement back him.

In South Carolina, a New York Times/Siena poll of 707 likely voters, conducted Oct. 19-26 with a 4.3-point margin of error, has Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48%. Graham was appointed to the seat after the death of her brother, Lindsey Graham. About half of likely voters disagree that she "has the right experience to be an effective Senator." Andrews is winning a majority of independents.

In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas has held a polling lead over former Sen. John E. Sununu for an open seat Republicans hoped to flip. The two were scheduled to debate this week.

The campaigns are making final appearances in key states. Former President Barack Obama is campaigning in Georgia with Sen. Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms. President Trump is in Ohio backing Sen. Jon Husted.

Affordability versus the culture fight

Pew Research found economic issues the top driver for 29% of Americans, by a wide margin. Democrats have centered their closing pitch on the cost of living.

Politico reported this week that Democrats are divided over how much to emphasize transgender policy if they win power. Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey said, "We need to have an affirmative platform that protects and expands rights for LGBTQ people." Politico said nearly a dozen lawmakers and advocates want legislation codifying certain rights for trans people, plus committee hearings that compel testimony from Trump officials. Moderates want the focus kept on affordability.

Republicans say the party is drifting left. The Epoch Times noted that several Democratic candidates have ties to the Democratic Socialists of America or embrace democratic socialist ideas. New York's 7th District nominee Claire Valdez has named a "trans bill of rights" among her top priorities.

Republicans also point to the economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fox Business host Larry Kudlow said in early September that the country was seeing an economic boom not seen in decades. The Government Accountability Office attributed larger tax refunds this year partly to Trump's tax law. Marist found likely voters say 2 to 1 that their ballot is a vote against Trump rather than for him.

A lawsuit over voter rolls

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other congressional Democrats have sued the Trump administration in federal court in Washington. The complaint alleges that the Department of Homeland Security has pressured states to review unreliable lists of suspected noncitizens, and that federal officials have threatened state and local election administrators to secure compliance. It argues that decisions about who stays registered belong to the states under federal law.

Schumer wrote on X that Trump "resorted to bullying election officials into stripping Americans of their right to vote." The administration has defended its efforts as lawful measures to prevent noncitizen voting.

Keeping ineligible people off voter rolls is a legitimate goal. In court, the dispute is over who has the authority and whether the lists are accurate. The complaint is an allegation, and the administration disputes the characterization. The case is pending.

What to watch on Nov. 3

The polls give Democrats a clear edge nationally and show two red-state Senate races at a dead heat. They don't say whether Republicans' Election Day vote can close the gap.

Polls tied within their margins of error, like Texas and South Carolina, can break either way. Polls are also snapshots, and the final Marist survey is a measure of preference, not a count of ballots. Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3.