IRGC Spokesman Warns Even a Limited US Strike Would Cause Global Energy Crisis as Qatar Says More Disruption Is Coming

Since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the war has hardened into a stalemate that neither side has been able to break. Today, Oct. 19, the public threats are getting sharper.

IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi said Iran's response to any renewed US attack would be "much more severe" than last time. "Even if America's action is limited, the world will face a serious energy crisis," he said, according to Iranian state media.

What Tehran is claiming

Mohebbi, in an interview with the Tehran Times, argued the US cannot start a new war. "Technically and militarily, America does not have the capacity to create a new conflict," he said.

He claimed most US bases in the region have been shut down and that American forces have pulled back hundreds of kilometers. He also said the US Navy, which he put at 30 to 40 warships inside the Persian Gulf before the war, now has none there and sits roughly 700 kilometers from the Strait of Hormuz. Those are Iranian military claims. No independent figures for current US deployments appear in the reporting.

He also left a door open. With US elections near, he said, Washington "may want to make achievements" through a limited strike. "We do not ignore the possibilities and are prepared to respond."

Over the weekend, IRNA English posted another Mohebbi statement, reported late Sunday, Oct. 18. It said any attack on Iran's energy infrastructure would be "immediately repaired by young scientists" but would "turn the occupied territories into a scorched land forever" and displace Israelis to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. The statement named no specific target and gave no timeline. It was a conditional threat, not a claim that such an attack had occurred.

Araghchi points at Netanyahu

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X on Sunday: "Last time you wanted to 'finish the job,' Iran emerged even stronger. Want to try your luck again? Be our guest. But be careful; we have unfinished jobs too."

He also alleged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "is driving America into another war to stay out of jail." That is Araghchi's accusation. It refers to Israeli elections expected in under two weeks and to Netanyahu's corruption trials, which would resume in full if he lost his mandate.

The push comes after President Donald Trump signaled he is weighing a resumption of major bombing after the November midterms, and has teased possible action sooner, according to ZeroHedge's account. Iran's rhetoric reads as an attempt at deterrence. CNN reported that over the past month IRGC commanders have claimed large stockpiles of new weapons. They have floated targets beyond the region, including undersea internet cables, AI data centers and regional oil and gas facilities.

An adviser to the supreme leader said Tehran would seek to escalate any renewed fighting into a regional war. Mohammad Mokhber, a former interim president, said Iran's deterrence had kept the US and Israel from using their full capabilities.

The Gulf is already exposed

The threat to energy sites is not hypothetical. A Reuters investigation published Oct. 15 found Iran and allied groups had carried out at least 135 drone and missile attacks on 84 critical infrastructure sites across Gulf countries since the war began. Targets included Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex and Saudi pipeline infrastructure.

Qatar's deputy prime minister and defense minister of state, Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, spoke Monday at the Global Security Forum in Doha. He warned of an energy disruption "peak" with more difficulties on the horizon "in the coming days and months."

He also said Qatar will soon announce a new regional defense partnership focused on ballistic missiles, drones, cyberattacks and water security. A local defense production hub is planned too, with a regional partner and allies including the US, Britain and France. Al Udeid air base, the largest US base in the Middle East, will keep being developed, he said.

His read on Iran's attacks differs sharply from Mohebbi's picture of a crippled American posture. Sheikh Saoud said "more than 90%" of Iran's attacks on the region were countered, thanks to cooperation with the US built over decades.

Doha keeps the line to Tehran open

Qatar is not calling for escalation. "We never stop our communication," Sheikh Saoud said of contact with Tehran. "Iran is our neighbour."

He called for talks between Iran, the six Gulf Cooperation Council states, Pakistan and Turkey once the US and Iran reach a settlement. A non-aggression agreement is among the possible steps he cited. Until then, Qatar is mediating with Pakistan and Oman, which he compared to a long-distance race.

CNN reported that both sides claim victory. Tehran points to its survival, and Washington points to the damage inflicted on the regime. The Trump administration is still testing new economic and military pressure, and Tehran has resisted it.

Among ordinary Iranians, CNN found residents stockpiling water and charging power banks in expectation of renewed bombing.

The next test comes in the next two weeks: Israel's election, followed by the US midterms. Neither Trump nor the Pentagon has publicly set a date for resuming strikes, and Tehran's threats cover energy sites from Ras Laffan to Iran's own.