Iran Says Tankers Hit Mines in Southern Hormuz Lane Hours After Trump's Midterm Strike Pledge

Since the U.S. and Israel opened their war on Iran on Feb. 28, the fighting has settled into a pattern of pauses, flare-ups and stalled talks. The newest flare-up came on the water, not from the air.

Late Thursday, Tehran time, Iran's Fars news agency, citing unnamed military sources, said several heavy explosions hit the southern passage of the Strait of Hormuz. Fars said the cause was "violating oil tankers" striking mines in the sea.

The first Fars note named no ships, flags or crew counts. No independent confirmation of the blasts has surfaced.

The mine claim

Tehran's framing matters. Iran did not say its forces fired. It said ships that left the route Iran designates, the northern lane under its watch, hit mines. Iran has pushed that line for months.

Washington tells it differently. A Treasury official, speaking anonymously, accused the Iranian government of "shooting ships in the Strait of Hormuz" rather than feeding its people. That is one side's account of a different mechanism, and neither version has been verified.

The timing is hard to miss. Trump posted on Truth Social just after noon Eastern Thursday that the U.S. "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" on Nov. 3. He said talks were "productive" and kept the naval blockade of Iranian ports in place.

No source ties the reported mine strikes to that post.

Talks: dead or not

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Thursday that negotiations with the U.S. are "not completely dead." He said Iran exchanged proposals through intermediaries, added amendments and "never left the negotiating table" despite U.S. attacks. Iran is compiling a final text to send back through mediators, he said.

That is a shift in tone from earlier this week, when Pezeshkian called the talks "meaningless."

Qatar is mediating. A preliminary deal reached in June collapsed when Iran resumed strikes amid disagreement over control of the waterway. At talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last month, Tehran said the strait stays closed until Washington meets seven conditions, including lifting the blockade and releasing frozen assets.

Russia's Vladimir Putin met Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan on Thursday and said Moscow is "ready to do everything that is in our power" to help settle the conflict, according to Russian news agencies. Ukraine and Western governments accuse Iran of supplying Russia with Shahed drones and short-range missiles. Russia has been accused of giving Iran targeting data for strikes on U.S. interests. Moscow's role as peace broker is complicated.

Why Tehran is skeptical

Axios reported, citing U.S. and Israeli officials, that Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump's statement and want to avoid a third surprise attack. The history gives them reason. The U.S. struck Iran on Feb. 28 while talks were underway and a day after Trump said he had made no decision. In June 2025 he said he would decide on strikes "in two weeks" and the U.S. hit Iran days later during Israel's 12-day war.

The Atlantic reported Wednesday, citing two administration officials, that the White House asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be used before the midterms. The New York Times reported the military drafted options for three days of strikes. Axios, citing U.S. and Israeli officials, reported CENTCOM was told to prepare for major combat operations. Those are anonymous-source reports, and The Atlantic said the decision was still being debated.

Trump's public answer is the post itself. The Atlantic also noted the political logic runs against a strike: the war is unpopular and dragging Republican candidates down, and oil tends to spike on escalation headlines.

The cost so far

At least 81 U.S. military aircraft and drones have been lost or damaged in the war, according to a Congressional Research Service report updated this week. That includes 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones, 12 F-15E Strike Eagles and seven KC-135 tankers. The count includes aircraft destroyed in the rescue of two downed aviators in Iran, plus dozens of drones the military has declined to discuss.

The USS Abraham Lincoln and its more than 4,500 sailors returned to San Diego Thursday after 321 days, much of it supporting the Iran war. The carrier left the region in late August.

On the economic front, the Treasury Department designated 17 vessels Thursday that it says are part of Iran's shadow fleet carrying crude and petrochemicals to South and East Asia, calling it the "most significant blow yet." An anonymous Treasury official said no Iranian oil cargo unloadings have been identified in October, and pointed to wage cuts and a collapsing currency inside Iran.

Brent crude jumped more than 4% Thursday on the strike-plan reports, topping $105 at one point. It slipped about 1% to near $103 in Asian trading Friday after Trump's pledge.

What comes next

Trump's promise covers only the period through Nov. 3. Iran has not said when its revised text will be delivered to mediators, and no investigator has examined the reported Hormuz blasts.