Fox Tells NFL No New TV Deal Until 2029, Betting the League Blinks First

Fox Corporation CEO Lachlan Murdoch told investors on Thursday's earnings call that the company will not renegotiate its NFL media rights deal before it's contractually required to. Fox will keep its current terms through the completion of the 2029 season, according to Murdoch's comments reported by CNBC, Sports Media Watch, Awful Announcing and The Wall Street Journal.

"In advance of the season, we've had recent, thorough and productive discussions with the league, and as a result, we will not be making any amendments to our existing contractual relationship, which extends to the completion of the 2029 season," Murdoch said. "We'll be ready to engage with the NFL on the opt-out seasons and beyond at a date closer to the 2030 season, which has been the customary timetable."

The NFL has spent much of the past year trying to get ahead of that timetable. The league wanted its broadcast partners, Fox and Paramount Skydance-owned CBS, to pay significantly more money now in exchange for giving up their opt-out rights, according to CNBC's earlier reporting. Fox just told the league to wait.

Why the NFL wanted an early deal

Under the current arrangement, both Fox and Paramount can walk away from their contracts at the end of the 2029-30 season. Disney, which owns ESPN, gets an extra year before its own opt-out kicks in. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has said publicly he believes the league's media rights are undervalued.

"I think our partners would want to sit down and talk to us at any time, and we continue to dialogue with them," Goodell said last September, according to CNBC. "Obviously it's not going to happen this year. But it could happen as early as next year."

For context on why Goodell thinks the NFL is leaving money on the table: the NBA nearly tripled its media rights revenue in 2024, striking an 11-year, $77 billion deal. The NFL's current package, signed in 2021, is worth more than $100 billion but hasn't been revisited since.

CNBC reported the NFL had floated an increase of nearly $1 billion per year with Paramount in exchange for guaranteeing CBS carriage through 2034. Disney CFO Hugh Johnston told CNBC earlier this week that the NFL hasn't even engaged Disney on a new deal yet.

Fox's calculation

Sports Media Watch noted that Murdoch signaled resistance to renegotiation months ago, telling investors at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom Conference that Fox pays market price for NFL rights and already doubled its rights fee three years earlier. He's also said any cost increase from the league would flow through to local affiliates, distributors and ultimately consumers.

Fox currently pays a reported $2.25 billion annually for its NFL package, part of a deal the company has held since Fox launched its sports division in 1994.

Awful Announcing's coverage adds important detail: Fox reportedly ran a political pressure campaign against the NFL's push to expand its streaming footprint, one that reached the White House. The Wall Street Journal's Joe Flint, Dana Mattioli, Josh Dawsey and Andrew Beaton reported that Fox Corporation chairman emeritus Rupert Murdoch raised concerns about NFL streaming deals directly with White House officials in February.

That pressure campaign coincided with new federal scrutiny of the league. The FCC opened an inquiry and the Department of Justice reportedly launched an investigation into potential anticompetitive practices tied to the NFL's media business, according to Sports Media Watch and Awful Announcing. No charges have been filed and no formal DOJ action has been announced publicly beyond the reported inquiry.

Fox also submitted public comment to the FCC arguing for review of the NFL's antitrust exemption under the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961, and whether that exemption should extend to streaming platforms at all. Fox's position: shifting NFL games primarily to streaming would have "devastating consequences for consumers and broadcast stations alike."

NFL EVP of communications Jeff Miller pushed back on Fox's Capitol Hill and FCC comments, calling the situation "a little bit odd given the relationship that we've had with the broadcasters and the fact that we continue to keep all of our games on broadcast television," according to Sports Media Watch.

What happens now

The NFL retains the ability to strike new deals early with its non-broadcast partners, having already added YouTube and Netflix in recent years without needing broadcast partners' sign-off. Fox's decision leaves CBS as the only traditional broadcast partner reportedly still in active renegotiation talks with the league, though Awful Announcing noted those talks have reportedly stalled amid Paramount's pending merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, a deal the UK has already cleared at a reported $81 billion valuation.

Murdoch called the Fox-NFL relationship "incredibly positive" and pointed to a recently completed deal for Mexican broadcast rights as evidence the two sides can still find common ground on smaller issues even while punting the big one.

The unresolved question is simple: does the league try again with Fox before 2029, or does it wait out the calendar with all three of its broadcast partners now effectively on notice that they intend to negotiate on the customary schedule rather than the accelerated one Goodell wanted.