Finland Detects Strike on Russian Warship in Gulf of Finland, Ukraine's SBU Claims Hit on Missile Corvette

Finland's military said Thursday, Nov. 12, that its forces detected a strike on a Russian warship in the Gulf of Finland area on Wednesday, Nov. 11. A spokesperson said the Defence Forces "monitored the development of the situation" and that Finland is not under any immediate military threat.

The Finnish military declined to say when or where the strike happened, or how it was detected.

Who hit what

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) says it did it. The agency said it struck the Naro-Fominsk, a Buyan-M-class small missile ship launched in 2022 that carries Kalibr cruise missiles and Oniks anti-ship missiles. The SBU said the hit came during an operation against the Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga.

Finland has not publicly assigned responsibility. Its spokesperson did not say what caused the strike. Finnish officials have said they could not determine who was responsible or what weapons were used, and the Defence Forces did not name an attacker in their statement.

Brig. Gen. Markku Viitasaari of Finland's Defence Ministry told the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat that Finnish surveillance recorded flashes and smoke from the vessel in international waters near Gogland Island. The island sits roughly 40 kilometers from the Finnish coast near Kotka. Finnish authorities first thought the ship might be firing at drones. Later sensor data showed at least one explosion aboard.

Estonian Defense Minister Martin Herem told Estonian public broadcaster ERR that an explosion occurred aboard the Baltic Fleet vessel and that it headed toward St. Petersburg afterward. Finnish and Estonian officials say the ship sailed toward the Kronstadt naval base under its own power.

The extent of the damage and any crew casualties remain unconfirmed. Russia's Defense Ministry has not described what happened to the ship in the material reviewed for this report.

The Ust-Luga raid

The strike came during a wider Ukrainian drone campaign against Russia's Leningrad region, which includes St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga, a major Baltic export outlet for oil and grain.

The SBU said petroleum storage tanks were damaged at the Novatek-Ust-Luga and Ust-Luga Oil terminals, with large fires. Ukraine's General Staff reported damage to five oil storage tanks and processing facilities. Russian authorities acknowledged drone attacks in the region, and three workers were reportedly injured.

This is a long-range campaign against Russian energy exports and naval assets. Ust-Luga is one of the main Baltic channels for Russian commodity sales abroad.

NATO's neighbors feel it

The NATO angle is the part that should worry Western capitals. Some Ukrainian drones have strayed into Finnish and Baltic airspace, raising fears the war will spill over into NATO countries bordering Russia and its ally Belarus.

Early Wednesday, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania told citizens to take shelter because of drones in their airspace. NATO scrambled warplanes in response.

Finnish authorities also detected a suspected unauthorized drone briefly entering Finnish airspace over the eastern Gulf of Finland that morning. Finland's military imposed temporary aviation and maritime restrictions but said the incidents posed no immediate military threat.

The Gulf of Finland is a narrow arm of the Baltic between Finland and Estonia that runs east to St. Petersburg. There is very little room in it. A warship hit about 40 kilometers off a NATO member's shore is a short distance from a mistake.

A tense Baltic

The incident lands in a region already on edge. On Nov. 5, the Helsinki District Court found the captain and a crew member of the cargo ship Fitburg guilty of aggravated sabotage. The court said the ship dragged an anchor chain and shank along the seabed for about 130 kilometers after leaving St. Petersburg, damaging two telecommunications cables and attempting to damage seven other telecommunications and electricity cables and a gas pipeline.

The court sentenced the captain to three years and six months in prison and the crew member to two years and 10 months. Both denied wrongdoing. The captain's lawyer said he will appeal, and the crew member's lawyer said he had not yet decided.

At a NATO undersea infrastructure meeting in Rostock, Germany, on Oct. 21, NATO official Jean-Charles Ellermann-Kingombe said "critical infrastructure is a target."

What is still open

Helsinki is keeping its public account narrow. Finland has said the security situation in the area is stable and that it is not under immediate threat. It has not disclosed how its forces observed the strike, and has not said whether it believes Ukraine carried it out.

The open questions are specific. How badly was the Naro-Fominsk damaged, and did anyone aboard die? Will Moscow publicly acknowledge a hit on a Baltic Fleet ship? And will Finland and the three Baltic states change their airspace and shipping restrictions after another day of stray drones?