Early Vote Passes 50 Million as Cook Shifts 12 House Seats Toward Democrats Before Tuesday's Midterms

Three days before Election Day, the numbers favor Democrats. Whether those numbers are right is the open question.

The House map

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted 12 more House races toward Democrats on Friday, Oct. 30. That brings the range of likely Democratic pickups to between 12 and 25 seats. At the top end, Democrats would hold as many as 240 seats. Control takes 218.

Three seats moved from Lean Republican to Toss-Up. Pennsylvania's 1st and Colorado's 5th also became Toss-Ups. So did South Carolina's 1st, held by outgoing Republican Rep. Nancy Mace.

Ohio's 9th, held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, and Pennsylvania's 8th, held by Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, both moved from Toss-Up to Lean Democrat. Seven more seats slid within the Republican column, from Solid to Likely or from Likely to Lean.

The Cook shift came a day after Trump rallied in another part of South Carolina. The No Going Back PAC also moved money out of the 1st District race to help defend the state's Senate seat, which has become a worry for Republicans.

Elsewhere, VoteHub gave Democrats an 84% chance of winning the House and 59% for the Senate as of Oct. 13. RealClearPolling's average put Democrats ahead on the generic ballot by 8.1 points as of Oct. 14.

Early vote tops 50 million

More than 50 million ballots had been cast as the final weekend began, according to data from 47 states and D.C. gathered by CNN, the Associated Press and Catalist, a data firm that serves Democrats, academics and nonprofits. About 57 million pre-election ballots were cast in 2022. This year's count is roughly 87% of that total with most of the weekend still to go.

Texas leads the states with more than 7.4 million ballots. Early voting there ended Friday, and counties are still reporting final numbers.

CNN's read of the data is that each party has something to worry about. Democrats are hoping a Republican surge on Election Day does not erase their early advantage. Republicans are watching how independents break.

The polling question

The polls have missed before, and not in a consistent direction. University of Wyoming political scientist Ryan Williamson says polls overstated Democratic support by 3.1 points in 2016, 4.6 in 2020 and 2.7 in 2024. They also underestimated Democrats in the 2025 governor races in New Jersey and Virginia. Early this year they overestimated left-wing candidates in the Wisconsin governor and Michigan Senate primaries.

The core problem, Williamson says, is that "almost nobody answers polls anymore." He cites a 0.4% response rate for the 2022 New York Times/Siena poll. Democratic pollster Stefan Hankin estimates it now takes 100 to 125 calls to reach one willing respondent, up from about 25 in the early 2000s.

Kellyanne Conway, a Fox News contributor, made the Republican case on "Fox News Sunday." "Participation in a poll is not the same as participation at the polls," she said. She argued some Republicans are reluctant to answer surveys and called competitive Senate races "on a razor's edge."

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who worked for Biden's campaign, agreed Democrats lead on enthusiasm but urged supporters not to let good numbers keep them home. She also said her party has under-invested in youth turnout compared with Republicans and Turning Point USA.

Trump's final push

Trump's Wednesday, Oct. 28 stop in Ohio for Sen. Jon Husted and Vivek Ramaswamy was his 28th rally of the cycle. Thursday took him to Rock Hill, South Carolina, and Friday to Daytona Beach.

The Daily Wire had his schedule ending with Salina, Kansas, on Saturday and Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday. CNN reports he will campaign virtually today, Oct. 31, and has reinstated Iowa and Kansas rallies for Sunday. CNN also reports he has complained that his voice is wearing down and said he is not sure in-person events will make a difference.

The White House has not announced his Monday plans or where he will be on Election Day. Spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Republican control of Congress means "safer streets, lower taxes, a secure border, and energy dominance." Trump has urged voters to act as if he is on the ballot.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, speaking in Tallahassee, called Trump "the most dangerous president" in U.S. history and the midterms "the most important midterm election in modern American history."

Senate races to watch

In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton led Democrat James Talarico 47.2% to 46.7% in a poll released in mid-October, in what is described as the most expensive race of the cycle. Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Two separate $500,000 bets on Abbott appeared on Kalshi this week. The second came at 64 cents per share, an implied 64% chance. Betting Intelligence, which tracks prediction markets, says the trades came from institutional traders likely hedging.

In Michigan, a rift is growing between Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and former primary rival Haley Stevens. Republican Mike Rogers said Stevens was welcome at his campaign events.

In Alaska, Democratic nominee Mary Peltola remains defiant as federal and state investigations ramp up over an alleged scheme to confuse voters on the Senate ballot. No charges have been announced in the sources reviewed, and Peltola's side disputes the allegation.

Polls close Tuesday, Nov. 3. Democrats need to net three seats for the House. The Senate math runs through North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Alaska and Maine, where Democrats say they are competitive.