California Billionaires Have Given $612 Million to State Elections, Politico Analysis Finds, as Prop 40 Vote Nears

Since the Meta filing and the $300 million opposition milestone, a fuller tally of billionaire money has emerged. More than 70 current and former California billionaires have given a record $612 million to this year's state elections, according to a Politico analysis. Nearly half of it went to groups opposing Proposition 40.

The measure, on the ballot Tuesday, Nov. 3, would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of billionaires who were living in California on Jan. 1, 2026. Five percent of $1 billion is $50 million, so even the smallest bill would be large. The $612 million works out to under $9 million per donor on average.

Where the money sits

The largest vehicle is Building a Better California, a political action committee. A Capital & Main analysis of state records found it had spent more than $304 million through Oct. 20. Of that, $118.5 million went to a committee opposing Prop 40, and another $186 million went to support Propositions 41 and 42.

Sergey Brin is the biggest single donor, at $102 million. Other major contributors named in Politico's analysis include Eric Schmidt, John Doerr, Stripe CEO Patrick Collison and crypto executive Chris Larsen.

About 96% of the opposition spending on the wealth tax measures has come from that one committee, Capital & Main found. The group has raised more than $333 million overall. It also gave $10 million to back Proposition 45, which opponents say would weaken state environmental review rules, and $6 million to back Proposition 37, a $25 billion homebuyer loan fund.

The Guardian, citing the most recent campaign filings, puts opposition super PAC spending at upwards of $356 million. It reports the campaign spent more than $42.8 million in the first two weeks of October, above $2.5 million a day. Different counting windows explain the different totals.

Capital & Main's analysis also found opponents outraising supporters by more than 9 to 1 across the three measures. The wealth tax fight accounts for nearly half of all spending on California ballot measures this cycle.

The backup plan

Props 41 and 42 are the part of the strategy many voters may not have noticed. According to the state Legislative Analyst's Office, either could nullify Prop 40 if it gets more votes.

Prop 41 would require audits of new tax programs. Prop 42 would ban new state personal property taxes and certain retroactive state taxes. So Prop 40 could win a majority and still lose.

The case for the tax

Prop 40's supporters say the money is needed to offset federal healthcare cuts. Dave Regan, president of SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West and the architect of the measure, said the union was willing to try something others called crazy. "To us, what's crazy is doing nothing and watching millions of people lose coverage," he told The Guardian.

The Guardian reports that when the cuts under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act take effect in January, more than 3.4 million Californians could lose coverage. Backers say the tax would cover a $100 billion shortfall tied to those cuts. Proceeds would fund healthcare programs, along with some education and food assistance.

Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, defended the tax on the Conversate with Killer Mike podcast. "The public isn't afraid. The billionaires are afraid," he said. Asked about taxing aspiring high earners, he said billionaires aren't breaking any law but pay little tax because their wealth comes from the appreciation of companies they own, not from a W-2. "You didn't build this money yourself," he said.

The case against it

Opponents argue the tax will backfire. Building a Better California spokesperson Abby Lunardini said in a statement the group stands with "doctors, teachers, firefighters, Planned Parenthood, Gov. [Gavin] Newsom, and the many others who oppose Prop 40, because it will devastate the state's budget, tax base, and economy, all while making the problem it claims to want to fix, healthcare funding, much worse."

Opponents also say the measure has no oversight provisions to ensure the money reaches families struggling with healthcare costs, and could instead mean more profit for health insurers. They warn it will drive companies and wealthy residents out of the state and cost billions in lost tax revenue.

Newsom's opposition has put Democrats on both sides of the fight. Critics inside the party point to the one-off structure and the narrow set of programs the money would fund, The Guardian reports.

The billionaires have also said why they are spending so much. Politico reports that technology executives say the proposal accelerated plans to become more politically active, and that the donor networks built for this fight could be used in future campaigns.

What happens Tuesday

The outcome turns on two questions. One is whether Prop 40 gets a majority. The other is whether Prop 41 or 42 draws more votes than Prop 40, which would void it. The state has not yet reported results for any of the three measures.