Democrats Take Both Chambers of Congress; Gold Rises Above $4,000, Dollar Hits One-Month Low

Since Tuesday evening's futures slide, the midterm count has hardened into a result: according to an NPR analysis of Associated Press race calls, Democrats now control both the House and the Senate. Overnight, that result moved precious metals, currencies, bonds and a handful of equity sectors.

Gold and the dollar

Spot gold climbed 2.4% to $4,021.68 an ounce by 0718 GMT Wednesday, Nov. 4, according to Reuters market data. December futures rose 2.3% to $4,031.20. Spot silver gained about 4% to roughly $51.74. Platinum rose 2.5% to $1,451.95 and palladium 4.2% to $972.74.

The dollar hit a one-month low. The dollar index fell roughly 0.3% to 0.5% depending on the hour, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped about 5 basis points, according to Newsquawk's market summary.

Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, tied the move to divided government. "Gold has benefited from the fact that yields and the dollar have dropped," he said, and that reflects an expectation that gridlock between the White House and Congress "could slow the amount of spending in the US."

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, offered a second driver: "the demand for protection against a potentially more unpredictable and confrontational Trump administration."

The caution on metals

Not everyone reads the rally as durable. Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX, wrote Tuesday that dual Democratic control would bring "fiscal brinkmanship, institutional friction, both leading to uncertainty." She said the Iran war and a weaker dollar would compete with the impact of a hawkish Federal Reserve, and she flagged a Fed "leaning towards another hike."

Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, called the recovery "fragile." In her words, geopolitical uncertainty "is not automatically translating into safe-haven demand" while investors also worry about restrictive monetary policy.

The numbers back up the fragility. Gold is down more than 7% year to date and silver almost 28%, per CNBC's tally, after 2025 gains of 66% and 135%. Even at $4,000, gold sits below the $4,262 average price the World Gold Council reported for the third quarter.

The council's quarterly data points the other way on official demand. Central banks bought 321 tons in the third quarter, up 42% from a year earlier and the most since the end of 2024. The People's Bank of China led, followed by the National Bank of Poland. The council, an industry body funded by gold miners, raised its 2026 central bank forecast to at least the 848 tons bought last year.

Stocks, bonds and renewables

Global stocks slumped on fears that a Democratic sweep could disrupt the data-center build-out that has powered the AI trade. U.S. Nasdaq futures fell as much as 2.0% and S&P 500 futures as much as 1.0%, according to Newsquawk, before recovering part of the loss. Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet were all hit, as were energy and component suppliers tied to the AI buildout. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs were dented by what Newsquawk called a "regulation narrative."

Renewable stocks went the other way. Denmark's Orsted rose more than 6% on Tradegate ahead of the European open, and Vestas Wind Systems and SMA Solar Technology were indicated higher, according to Bloomberg. The market read the result as supporting friendlier policy for the industry.

Regular U.S. trading has not started. The 9:30 a.m. ET open comes later today, Nov. 4.

Washington after the count

The seven Senate seats that flipped from Republican control were North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Iowa and Maine, according to NPR's tally. Democrats held Georgia. Decision Desk HQ put their odds at 99% for the House and 100% for the Senate overnight.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said voters "have had enough of the extremism, enough of the corruption." Rep. Robert Garcia, expected to chair House Oversight, posted two words on X: "LAWYER UP."

President Trump said he will accept the result and is prepared to work with Democrats. He also pointed out that veto power is one of the strongest powers he has. That limits what a Democratic Congress can turn into law. NPR notes the party's affordability agenda may end up as a 2028 messaging tool rather than near-term policy.

Iran remains the wild card

On Iran, Trump said the U.S. has no immediate plan to strike, according to Newsquawk. The same summary says CENTCOM reportedly has a plan to strike as early as Wednesday. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday the two countries remain far from a deal to end the war, and Trump declined to rule out resuming combat operations after the elections.

What comes next

The Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement is due today, along with U.S. ADP employment and ISM services data, and the Riksbank, Poland's central bank and Brazil's central bank all have rate announcements. Qualcomm and Novo Nordisk report earnings. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report arrives Friday, Nov. 6, and it is the next data point that could test whether gold's gain holds against a Fed that analysts at StoneX say may hike again.