Anthropic Targets Nov. 19 or 20 Nasdaq Debut, With IPO Valuation Talk Spanning $1.25 Trillion to $1.75 Trillion

Since Anthropic's S-1 went public Oct. 26 and valuation talk began sliding after the Nasdaq 100's 6.4% drop last Thursday, the company has settled on a schedule: shares are targeted to start trading on Nasdaq on Nov. 19 or 20, under the ticker ANT. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Anthropic is set to meet with key investors this week and is expected to disclose its proposed price range in a filing this week, though it could still delay the offering.

That timing keeps the deal ahead of Thanksgiving on Nov. 26. It also lands later than the earliest date the SEC calendar allowed. Veterans Day closes the agency on Nov. 11, and the rules require two business days' notice before a filing is declared effective, which put Nov. 16 as the earliest possible first trade.

The valuation range

The Financial Times reported Nov. 6, citing more than half a dozen investors, that Anthropic still intends to list before Thanksgiving. It expects to raise $80 billion to $100 billion at a valuation between $1.25 trillion and $1.75 trillion. Other outlets have cited a floor nearer $1.1 trillion.

The investors the FT spoke to were not unanimous. One large investor said he expects Anthropic to "price it very conservatively, call it $1.5tn, and go up from there." Others in the deal expect closer to $1.3 trillion.

Either figure tops the $965 billion valuation set when Anthropic raised $65 billion in May. Both fall short of the roughly $2 trillion its most bullish backers hoped for a month ago.

Pushback from buyers

Buyers are pushing back on price. The Wall Street Journal reported Nov. 5 that several large IPO investors were pushing for a valuation below $1.5 trillion, and that a delay or a smaller raise had been discussed. Investors had expected Anthropic to seek a valuation of about $1.5 trillion before Thursday's sell-off. Going ahead at a lower price suggests Anthropic chose not to wait.

OpenAI's private round is also lower. It cut its valuation from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion, according to the FT's reporting.

What the filing shows

Anthropic amended its S-1 on Nov. 2 to add third-quarter results. Revenue was about $17 billion for the quarter, more than the $16.3 billion it booked in all of the first half. That brings the first nine months to roughly $33.2 billion.

The FT reported that Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate, which is not in the prospectus, is about $81 billion, up from about $65 billion at the end of July.

The costs are just as large. The filing discloses spending commitments of $895.4 billion, mostly for compute and infrastructure, with $69.8 billion due within 12 months.

The first-half net loss was about $80.7 billion. According to the filing's breakdown, just under $9 billion of that was spending on AI infrastructure and computing. More than $72 billion came from a change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities and SAFEs, a non-cash item.

Operating losses over the nine months narrowed to $1.3 billion from $5.2 billion a year earlier.

Risks Anthropic itself flags

The company says in the filing that "our historical growth rates are not indicative of future performance or our ability to sustain or forecast future revenue growth." It also warns it may not "generate sufficient revenue to achieve or sustain profitability in the future."

No single customer made up more than 10% of nine-month revenue, the filing says, and the top five accounted for about 25%. The filing lists dependence on chip manufacturing in Taiwan, geopolitical tension with China, and AI models that might "behave in unintended, misaligned, and autonomous ways" among its risks.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading a syndicate of 22 banks. A raise of $80 billion to $100 billion or more depends on that distribution network finding enough institutional demand in a market that just sold off.

What comes next

Anthropic has not confirmed a date or disclosed how many shares it will sell. The price range, expected this week, will show whether the company lands near the conservative $1.3 trillion some investors expect or closer to the $1.5 trillion one investor says it could price at before trading higher. A Nov. 19 or 20 first trade would come within a week of Thanksgiving.