Angus Reid Poll Puts Remain at 66% in Alberta Three Days Before Vote; 62% Expect Separatist Push to Continue

Since Prime Minister Mark Carney's Thursday rally in Calgary, the final weekend of the Alberta referendum campaign has produced the clearest picture yet of where voters stand. The Oct. 19 vote is nonbinding, but it carries real consequences for how Alberta's separation question is handled next.

Where the numbers stand

The Angus Reid Institute, a non-profit pollster, released new data today, Oct. 16. It finds 66% of Albertans choosing Option 1, remaining a province of Canada. Another 34% support Option 2, starting the process toward a binding separation referendum.

That is a two-to-one margin for remaining. The institute says Option 2 does better outside Calgary and Edmonton and among older Albertans, especially men.

Option 2 support is not the same as support for leaving. Among the 34% backing it, 60% say their motive is sending a message to Ottawa. Only 37% say it is separation itself. Carney addressed exactly that group at the Calgary rally. "Don't be fooled by the idea you can send a message," he said. "This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep division and great uncertainty."

Other polling cited in wire reporting puts outright separatist support at roughly a quarter of Alberta's population of about 5 million.

A fight that outlasts the vote

The institute found 62% of Albertans believe "there will never be an end to the separatist movement" in the province. Only 24% disagree.

That cuts against the premise behind the vote. Premier Danielle Smith, who says she opposes independence, said in May it was "time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on." She has committed to launching a legally binding separation process if a majority votes for Option 2. If a majority votes to remain, she has said she will not approve another referendum.

Smith is not getting credit for the exercise. Angus Reid finds 61% of Albertans say she has handled the separation issue "poorly." She said she cast her own advance ballot to remain in Canada, according to a video she posted Wednesday.

The separatist side's case

Separatist leaders say the polls understate them. Mitch Sylvestre, head of the Alberta Prosperity Project, told AFP in an interview Tuesday that his side might "actually win this referendum." He added: "I would be very surprised if we got less than 40 percent." The Angus Reid number for Option 2 is 34%.

Keith Wilson of Let Alberta Decide rejected Carney's argument that global instability makes this the wrong moment. "The worst timing for this, why? I don't understand the logic," he said. "Then it's the best time for him to get back to Ottawa."

Wilson said Carney should ask Parliament to repeal federal measures that separatists say have hurt Alberta. He cited authority he says could be used to tax oil exports in retaliation against the U.S.

Sylvestre, asked about American influence, said U.S. interests "don't play a role in Alberta until we win and become a government." He said there is no animosity toward America and no reason to stop trading with the world's largest economy.

The question of outside influence has drawn scrutiny in Canada. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called Alberta a natural partner for the United States. Carney said "some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us." He did not name Trump or the U.S. in that passage, and the Trump administration has not been shown to have taken a formal position on the vote.

What the grievance is about

Oil dominates the separatist argument. Ryan Griffiths, a Syracuse University professor who studies secessionist movements, told AFP that makes Alberta mostly an outlier. Secessionist movements usually pair economic motives with a linguistic or nationalist identity, he said. He added that Alberta's case for nationhood looks harder to make than that of the Catalans, Scots or French-speaking Quebecers.

Carney has tried to answer the economic complaint directly. He has backed a new pipeline and other projects to raise crude output, a break from Justin Trudeau, who was widely resented in Alberta over claims he stifled oil growth. He acknowledged that Ottawa had made Albertans feel "like our resources weren't our own."

How the vote works

Ballots carry 10 questions, each on its own colour-coded sheet. The separation question comes last. The other nine are nonbinding and cover immigration, access to provincial services including education, social care and healthcare, and voter identification requirements. Angus Reid has separately flagged that question wording may overstate support for some of the government's proposals.

Turnout looks set to be large. More than 650,000 Albertans requested mail-in ballots, and hundreds of thousands more have voted at advance polls. Elections Alberta expects turnout of 80% or more of nearly 3 million registered voters. The average over the past five provincial elections was 55%.

In Angus Reid's tracking, the share calling the referendum "very important" to Alberta's future rose from 67% in August to 76% now.

What comes next

Alberta votes Monday. If Option 2 wins a simple majority, Smith has said a binding separation process begins. If Option 1 wins, she has said no second referendum will be approved, though 62% of Albertans in the Angus Reid survey expect the separatist movement to keep going regardless.

Quebec is a separate case. The Parti Québécois won a minority government on Oct. 5 and has pledged a third referendum, but only if it holds a majority and after Trump leaves office.