Two Polls Put Paxton Up a Point or Less in Texas as Musk-Backed Spending Meets Talarico's $64 Million Quarter

Since filings released Oct. 15 showed Elon Musk's $158 million moving through the Senate Leadership Fund to a Texas PAC backing Ken Paxton, the race has settled into a dead heat. Two polls released this week show Paxton ahead by a point or less. The most expensive Senate contest of the 2026 cycle now goes to early voting in three days.

The polls

InsiderAdvantage released a survey Thursday putting Paxton at 49 percent and Talarico at 48 percent. It polled 1,200 likely voters with a margin of error of ±2.83 points. That is a statistical tie.

Quantus Insights, in a poll released Tuesday, had Paxton at 47.2 percent and Talarico at 46.7 percent. Quantus found Talarico leading independents 52 percent to 37 percent. It attributed Paxton's narrow edge to slow growth among Republican voters and to Talarico having already maxed out Democratic support.

The averages tell a slightly different story. RealClear Polling shows Talarico ahead by an average of 2.3 points, inside the margin of error of recent surveys. Cook Political Report moved the race from Leans Republican to Toss-Up in August.

The money gap

Talarico said Thursday he raised $64 million in the third quarter, the largest third-quarter haul on record for a Senate candidate. Paxton's FEC filing shows $10.2 million.

The outside spending runs the other way. The Senate Leadership Fund took in $272.9 million from July through September, its biggest quarter ever, and entered the final stretch with more than $155 million in cash. Its previous quarterly high was roughly $216 million in late 2020, according to a CNBC review of FEC filings.

Musk gave $75 million on Sept. 9 and $83 million two weeks later. The fund sent the same amounts to Texas PAC the following day each time. Texas PAC has reported more than $100 million in pro-Paxton and anti-Talarico spending.

AdImpact data shows the fund has spent more than $159 million on TV, radio and digital ads in Texas, double Talarico's campaign outlay. Republican groups spent roughly $122 million in Texas in September alone and had another $66 million reserved through Election Day as of early October, according to AdImpact.

The Texas Tribune put Musk's total at "nearly $190 million" into the race, a figure it said he "appears" to have reached. Musk also gave more than $80 million to his own America PAC from July to September, and that group reported spending on the Texas contest and other competitive races.

What the donors and the fund say

SLF executive director Alex Latcham told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday that "generous investors" had funded Texas PAC. He said the fund would spend nearly $200 million in the race and had not needed to "subtract resources from other states" to do it.

The fund's other moves this month are on the record. It paused additional advertising in North Carolina after spending more than $30 million there, according to AdImpact data, and shifted money toward Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that SLF committed $15 million to defend Sen. Pete Ricketts in Nebraska, including $7 million through the affiliated Cornhusker Majority. No source ties those decisions to the Texas spending.

America PAC spokesperson Andrew Romeo defended the giving in a statement. "If Democrats take control of Washington and win key gubernatorial and attorney general races this November, then America risks becoming a socialist, woke and borderless country," he said. He added that the "robust investments" let Republicans "get its message out" and have "a fighting chance to defy history."

Talarico's argument runs the other direction. He has campaigned on Paxton's history of scandal and on lingering Republican divisions after Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter primary this year. Paxton and his allies, including President Trump, say Talarico is too far left for Texas. Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in more than three decades.

The final stretch

Breitbart News reported that Talarico was off the campaign trail for nearly two weeks during this stretch and has taken criticism for it. Talarico's campaign has not been quoted in the filings coverage on the matter.

The Musk money was not Paxton's only help. SLF had estimated during the primary that a Paxton candidacy would require $150 million to $200 million to hold the seat. Its Texas spending is now at the low end of that range, with weeks left.

Early in-person voting in Texas begins Monday, Oct. 19. Senate Democrats' Senate Majority PAC reported a record $151 million quarter and $111.8 million in cash, but its FEC filings are not yet available. Those filings will show how much of that money is headed to Texas before Nov. 3.