Two Cargo Ships Have Sunk Near Hormuz as Iran Hits 15 Container Ships in 10 Days

Since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, the Strait of Hormuz has never been quiet. The past ten days are the most violent stretch of the conflict so far, and the damage is now physical: ships are going to the bottom.

Two sinkings

The Singapore-registered container ship GFS Pride was struck on Tuesday while passing through the strait, caught fire and later sank, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore. All crew were evacuated.

The Antigua and Barbuda-registered Cape Dao also sank, according to International Maritime Organization data reported by CNN. It was first hit by a projectile on Sept. 23. One Indian crew member was killed.

The IMO data shows these are only the second and third vessels to sink in the Middle East since the war began in February. Many more have been hit.

Iran's state-run Press TV said GFS Pride "hit a sea mine on an unauthorized route." Charlie Brown, a former U.S. Navy officer and senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran, disputes that. "Iran claims a naval mine; but a drone strike is more likely," he said.

Separately, Iranian state TV said a ship traveling from Karachi to Fujairah sank after hitting a mine. All 21 crew were evacuated and no injuries were reported. Dozens of its 2,500 containers were seen floating, and fishers and others went out to investigate rumors about the cargo. Officials have ordered local fishers not to pillage the sea for luxury items, saying the goods are the property of the state.

The attack tempo

At least 15 container ships have been attacked in the past 10 days, according to The Guardian. Some were hit by drones and some by mines. On Sunday, a ship was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade launched from a small boat 75 miles north-east of the Saudi port of Jubail.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) recorded 12 vessels attacked in the seven days to Friday, Oct. 16. It also reported nine attacks in or near the strait since Monday, including a drone strike on a tanker.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two oil tankers were hit on Saturday, including a supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil. A third tanker was hit late on Sunday. The Fars news agency published a video that appears to show the tanker burning, but it cannot be independently verified.

The IRGC says it has the right to attack any ship that seeks to traverse the strait without its permission or with its transponders off. How many ships were hit by mines and how many by IRGC shelling is disputed.

The Financial Times, cited by The Independent, counted 24 ships hit in the two weeks to Oct. 11, the most intense period of attacks of the entire war and almost double the second-worst period, the first two weeks of the war in March, when 13 ships were hit.

Traffic and oil

UKMTO recorded 254 transits of the strait in the week to Oct. 14, approximately 70% below pre-conflict levels. Kpler data shows only 4.147 million barrels of oil transited the strait on a recent Monday, less than a quarter of prewar levels. The seven-day average of oil flow has dropped sharply since early October.

Brent crude was close to $108 a barrel on Monday morning, according to The Guardian. On Feb. 27, Brent averaged around $65 to $70, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Once fighting broke out it surged past $100 and briefly reached as high as $120. Apart from a brief respite in July following an interim peace agreement that later collapsed, oil has remained above $100 for much of the last quarter, The Independent reports.

Washington's counter-argument

The U.S. military continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports to maintain economic pressure on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview published Oct. 3 that Iran would have "no oil on the water this week" and "no revenue," for the first time since it started pumping oil. "Barrels out of the Strait: U.S. about 1.1 billion, Iran zero," he said.

Bloomberg News reported that Iran's crude loadings fell to zero in August from around 250,000 barrels a day. Kpler and Vortexa data also recorded zero crude loadings that month.

A Goldman Sachs team of Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Alexandra Paulus and Daan Struyven told clients that a divergence was underway between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers. They estimated that "dark exports" had helped boost Persian Gulf oil exports to 23.3 million barrels a day, back to prewar levels.

CNN reports that Iran lost leverage over the strait in recent months as oil from other Gulf nations flowed at near-normal levels, partly through a U.S.-military-escorted operation of "dark" nighttime transits with tankers' transponders turned off. That rise in flow is why Iran is now ramping up attacks, CNN says, hoping to wrestle back leverage as American voters head to the polls. The Guardian reports that the surge in attacks appears to have helped resolidify Tehran's disputed control over the strait.

Politics and diplomacy

The Trump administration announced a controversial deal last week to drop some sanctions on Russia in order to import a relatively small amount of Russian diesel, CNN reports. The deal has drawn bipartisan criticism, and analysts warn there is no guarantee it will bring substantial relief, with diesel potentially climbing near all-time highs by November.

The Independent quotes Chatham House's Dr. Neil Quilliam, who says oil near $100 "should not be mistaken for stability" and that Saudi energy infrastructure "remains exposed."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that Tehran's conditions to reopen the strait remain in place and that it is still reviewing U.S. comments on Iran's seven-day ceasefire proposal. "If they comply with our conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on the sixth day, and negotiations will begin on the seventh day," he said. The proposal calls for the U.S. to lift its blockade on Iranian ports. Ships were still being hit in the days around that statement, and negotiations remain deadlocked, according to The Independent.

In Saudi Arabia, a Houthi strike injured six people in Najran, according to the kingdom's civil defense agency. The Kingdom Centre skyscraper in Riyadh ordered mandatory remote work for office tenants until further notice.

Brown framed the open question after the GFS Pride sinking. "Many ask what response will the US Navy mount to Iran's escalating attacks on global shipping," he said. "But the real question is what response will other nations take? How long will the world tolerate this threat to shipping, seafarers and freedom of navigation?"