Trump Says He Doesn't Think Congress Needs to Approve His $5,000 Checks, Economists Say the Math Doesn't Work

Since Trump unveiled the $5,000 'dividend' pledge Wednesday night at the Republican National Committee's midterm convention in Dallas, the harder questions about who can authorize it and how to pay for it have gotten sharper answers, and none of them are good news for the plan.

Trump told CBS News Texas he doesn't think Congress would need to approve the payments, according to reporting from AFP carried by RTL Today. That's a notable claim given the U.S. Constitution's Appropriations Clause, which bars the president from spending Treasury funds without a law passed by Congress. AFP's own legal breakdown notes any such payment "would in any case require congressional authorization."

AFP also flagged the vote-buying angle. Federal law prohibits offering payments in exchange for votes and separately restricts promising federally funded benefits for political support. Trump's pledge likely skirts both, AFP reported, because it isn't conditioned on how anyone votes and would apply to all adult Americans regardless of party.

The Math Doesn't Add Up Yet

Vice President JD Vance told Fox News the payments would be funded by tariff revenue and aimed at the middle class, with wealthy Americans potentially excluded to lower the total cost. "What the president is talking about is fundamentally a dividend for American workers," Vance said, adding that tariffs represent "an extraordinary amount of revenue" from countries that have "been taking advantage of America's workers."

The numbers don't back that up yet. Erica York, senior economist at the Tax Foundation's Center for Federal Tax Policy, told CBS News tariffs are generating about $125 billion a year, roughly one-tenth of the $1.25 trillion needed to send $5,000 to each of the nation's approximately 245 million adults. Fox News reported gross customs collections hit a record $34.2 billion in a single month and totaled about $208.5 billion since January, but those figures don't account for billions in refunds the administration has had to issue after the Supreme Court struck down the bulk of Trump's tariffs earlier this year.

The Congressional Budget Office puts the total U.S. adult population at 276.8 million, according to AFP, meaning a universal payout could run as high as $1.384 trillion. Limiting it to citizens brings that down to about $1.27 trillion. For comparison, the three rounds of pandemic-era stimulus checks approved by Congress in 2020 and 2021 totaled roughly $814 billion, per federal oversight data cited by AFP.

What Economists Are Saying

York warned that shortfall would have to be covered by new government debt, pushing the federal deficit toward $3 trillion, up from its current roughly $1.8 trillion. "If financial markets are already concerned about U.S. budget deficits, which are historically large and are projected to grow, and the message that you're giving is, 'We don't really care, we're almost going to double our deficits,' that's madness," York told CBS News.

Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, called the idea "fiscally dangerous" in a statement Thursday. "It's hard to understand how anyone could look at our current fiscal and economic situation and think we need to borrow another $1.2 trillion to send everyone cash," she said.

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN it's "the working definition of ill-timed and ill-advised fiscal policy." CNN's analysis argues the underlying economic diagnosis is wrong. Unemployment is low, growth is strong, and inflation, not weakness, is the actual complaint driving voter anxiety. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis checks or 2020 pandemic payments, CNN noted, there's no crisis-level economic need this time to justify the stimulus.

The backdrop makes borrowing riskier than it looked a few weeks ago. Oil prices have jumped above $107 a barrel amid renewed fighting tied to the Iran conflict, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.922%, matching post-pandemic highs, according to Breitbart. Higher yields mean it costs the government more to borrow the money a dividend program would require.

The White House pushed back on the skepticism. Spokesperson Davis Ingle told CBS News that "doomers and naysayers" have repeatedly underestimated Trump, pointing to Trump Accounts, drug price negotiations, border security numbers, and the end of taxes on tips as examples of promises he delivered on.

That track record is mixed on cash payments specifically. Trump's $2,000 tariff rebate checks, floated repeatedly since last year, never materialized after the Supreme Court struck down most of his tariffs. Elon Musk's DOGE-funded $5,000 dividend proposal from early in Trump's second term also never happened. A separate $500 ACA rebate promised to roughly 1 million enrollees in 30 states remains pending.

No bill funding the $5,000 dividend has been introduced in Congress. Whether Trump attempts to disburse the payments without congressional appropriation, and whether that would draw a legal challenge, remains an open question heading into the fall midterms.