Talarico Out-Raised Paxton $64 Million to $18 Million Last Quarter as Texas Senate Race Enters Final Weekend

More than 6.8 million Texans cast ballots through the first 11 days of the 12-day early voting period, exceeding the same point in 2022 by over 40%, according to the Texas Secretary of State's Office, as reported by the Texas Tribune. With the Nov. 3 midterms three days away, the final weekend has sharpened the picture in the race that could decide Senate control: Democrat James Talarico has the money and the polling lead, and Republican Ken Paxton has the outside spending and the president.

The money gap

Talarico's campaign raised $64 million from July through September. Paxton, the state attorney general, raised $18 million over the same period. Talarico has raised more than $146 million since launching.

The gap is partly closed by groups outside the campaigns. Republican outside groups have put more than $200 million into Texas to support Paxton, nearly all of it bankrolled by Elon Musk, according to Fox News. MAGA Inc., President Donald Trump's principal super PAC, has spent another $33.7 million on ads for Paxton, according to AdImpact.

The Texas Tribune calls it the most expensive Senate race in the country. It also reports Paxton's own party spent nearly $100 million during the primary calling him unfit for office.

Polling and turnout

The Daily Wire's latest reporting has Talarico up 1.5 points, though it notes some polls show a dead heat or a slim Paxton advantage. The Epoch Times counted Talarico leading in 18 of 19 polls since July, with Paxton ahead in a single Emerson College poll.

Talarico's leads are wider than those recorded against Ted Cruz in 2018, according to Fox News. That year Beto O'Rourke lost by about 2.5 points. Trump then carried Texas by 14 points in 2024.

The Texas Tribune reports signs of tepid Republican turnout in early voting. The Daily Wire says Republicans are fretting over sluggish rural turnout. Early-vote tallies show who voted, not how they voted, so none of this settles the result.

Dueling rallies

Trump campaigned with Paxton in Lubbock on Tuesday, Oct. 27, and shifted his rally time so it overlapped with Talarico's event about four miles away. Talarico's campaign said more than 4,000 people signed up for his rally, prompting a move to a larger venue. The Daily Wire reports Trump also planned a rally in Corpus Christi this week.

At a Dallas rally Thursday, Talarico cast the race as David against Goliath. "Dallas, you are my slingshot," he told the crowd.

Republicans blame their own

Not everyone on the right reads the race as a Democratic surge. Lauren Washburn, writing an opinion piece for the Daily Signal, argues the contest is close "not because Texas has suddenly swung left, but because Republicans are undercutting their own candidates."

Washburn points to Sen. John Cornyn calling Railroad Commission nominee Bo French "an embarrassment to the Republican Party" and pledging not to vote for him, after French posted a photo of Indian students at a University of Texas football game and voiced concern about demographic change. She notes Karl Rove said he would vote for French's Democratic opponent.

Washburn also cites state Sen. Angela Paxton's October ad urging Republican unity. "Either we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team," Angela Paxton said. Angela Paxton filed for divorce from the candidate in July 2025, Washburn notes.

The Tribune adds that Talarico's primary vulnerability has been "a deep archive of progressive statements."

The national map

Texas is one of several races that could decide the chamber. Republicans hold 53 seats, and Democrats need a net gain of four.

Data scientist Thomas Miller's model gives Republicans a 17.1% chance of keeping control, down from 34.8% in September, according to Fortune. That is one analyst's model, not a result.

Other races are tight. Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Sen. Susan Collins by 1.4 points in Maine, according to the Daily Wire. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by less than two points in Michigan, with Detroit turnout seen as pivotal.

In North Carolina, Republicans pulled funding in early October from the Senate campaign of former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley. Former Gov. Roy Cooper leads by about 9.2 points across the six most recent polls, according to the Epoch Times. Trump said Oct. 2 that he was "worried about" Whatley.

What a Texas result would change

The stakes extend beyond the Senate. The Tribune reports a Talarico win could prompt a rewriting of the national political map as soon as the 2028 presidential race, as Texas is poised to gain more congressional seats and Electoral College votes after the 2030 Census. Republicans have not had to seriously contend with losing Texas in a presidential election in decades.

The last time a Democrat won statewide in Texas, Talarico, now 37, was in kindergarten. The Tribune reports a Talarico loss could extinguish the dream of a blue Texas for cycles to come and embolden the insurgent wing of the GOP that chose Paxton despite the establishment's protests that he was a liability.

Texas voters settle it Tuesday. Whether Republican turnout shows up on Election Day is the open question left in the race.