Six States Vote Tuesday: South Carolina Picks Graham's Successor, Wisconsin and Minnesota Test the Democratic Party's Left Flank

Six states are voting today, August 11, and the results will start shaping the November midterm map by tonight.

The biggest test of Republican Party dynamics is in South Carolina, where ten GOP candidates are fighting to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham. Since Graham's death last month, his sister, Sen. Darline Graham, was appointed to fill the seat and then jumped into the race for the full term with President Trump's endorsement, according to ABC News and CBS News.

That endorsement hasn't scared off serious competition. Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former Gov. Mark Sanford, and businessman Mark Lynch, who lost to Graham in the June primary before his death, are all on the ballot, per CBS News.

Not everyone in the party is thrilled with how Darline Graham got here. John McGrath, chair of the Berkeley County GOP, told ABC News there's "a little bit of uneasiness" about the process, arguing that South Carolina voters, not "D.C." or PAC consultants, should decide the nominee. An untested candidate got the presidential nod and instant frontrunner status before facing a single voter. Whether that's evidence of insider dealing or just Trump backing a family member of a loyal ally is something Tuesday's results will start to answer.

Graham herself has leaned into being a political outsider. "I'm not a politician. I'm not a millionaire. I understand the average struggles of the American family," she said during an early August debate, according to ABC News. She's also broken from her brother on policy. She supports ending the Senate filibuster, which Lindsey Graham wanted to keep, and says she'll focus more on affordability than national security.

If nobody clears a majority Tuesday, the race heads to a runoff later this month. The eventual GOP nominee faces Democrat Annie Andrews in November, though Cook Political Report rates the seat solidly Republican, per ABC News.

The Democratic Party's Left-vs-Center Fight Moves to the Upper Midwest

In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong, a self-described democratic socialist, has held a steady polling lead over Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in the Democratic primary for governor, according to Yahoo News. That's despite Crowley's endorsement from current Gov. Tony Evers, who isn't running again.

Hong has walked back her 2020 support for defunding police, but Democratic strategists quoted by Yahoo News worry she's a general-election risk even if she can win the primary. The winner takes on Trump-backed Rep. Tom Tiffany in November, a race Democrats see as critical since Wisconsin's governor plays a role in certifying presidential election results and in any future redistricting fight.

In Minnesota, centrist Rep. Angie Craig is facing progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan for the Democratic Senate nomination, competing for the seat Sen. Tina Smith is vacating. Craig holds a fundraising edge; Flanagan has backing from progressive figures, according to the Associated Press via usnews. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, running for governor instead of reelection, faces no serious primary challenge.

The Guardian frames this as part of a broader pattern. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed's primary win in Michigan last week over Haley Stevens has "energized progressives" while worrying party leaders that a leftward shift in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan will cost Democrats in November. Establishment Democrats and progressive Democrats are making genuinely different bets about what wins purple states.

On the Republican side in Minnesota, MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell has Trump's endorsement in a crowded governor's primary against House Speaker Lisa Demuth and businessman Kendall Qualls, per usnews and CBS News. For Senate, former sportscaster Michele Tafoya is considered the frontrunner over retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze and 2024 nominee Royce White.

The Undercovered Races

Connecticut's 1st District pits five-term Gov. Ned Lamont, seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term, against state Rep. Josh Elliott running to his left, according to the Associated Press. No Connecticut governor has won three straight terms in the modern era; the last one who tried, Republican John Rowland, resigned in 2004 amid a corruption scandal, a fact worth remembering given how often incumbency itself becomes the campaign issue.

Also in Connecticut, longtime Rep. John Larson faces a serious primary threat from former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, who won 51.2% of the vote at the May Democratic convention, per news24online.

Alabama is holding special primaries in four congressional districts, a process the AP notes came after the state won court permission to hold them. Turnout is expected to be low.

None of these races are settled yet. Polls close at 7 p.m. in Vermont and 8 p.m. in Connecticut and Minnesota, with full results expected through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. If South Carolina's crowded GOP field prevents any candidate from hitting a majority, that runoff will extend the fight over Graham's seat for weeks longer.