Poll: Francesca Hong Leads Wisconsin Democratic Governor Primary by 22 Points Ahead of Aug. 11 Vote

State Rep. Francesca Hong holds a commanding lead in Wisconsin's Democratic gubernatorial primary, according to a State Navigate poll conducted August 3-6 among 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters. Hong pulled 44% support including leaners, compared to 22% for former Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and 11% for state Sen. Kelda Roys. No other candidate reached double digits, and just 9% of respondents were undecided. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.

Even without leaners factored in, Hong leads 42% to 21% over Crowley, according to the same survey. The primary is scheduled for Tuesday, August 11.

Hong, a 37-year-old former restaurant owner and current state representative from Madison, describes herself as a democratic socialist. Her platform includes abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, cutting police funding, and establishing government-run grocery stores, according to reporting from The Alex Marlow Show podcast, which covered her candidacy alongside other 2026 gubernatorial primaries in Michigan and Kansas.

Her rise mirrors a broader pattern this cycle. Democratic socialist candidates, including New York City's Zohran Mamdani-aligned figures and Georgia's Melat Kiros, have unseated establishment Democrats in primaries across the country this year. An Economist/YouGov poll cited by Breitbart found 62% of Democrats say they'd support a candidate who openly identifies as a democratic socialist, a notable shift from years when the label was treated as a liability.

Old statements resurface

Hong's past social media activity has drawn scrutiny as the primary nears. Breitbart News reported on a 2019 post in which Hong described leaving a Culver's restaurant in Black River Falls, Wisconsin, after feeling anxious around what she described as "too many old white people" who she believed assumed she didn't speak English. Hong did not elaborate on that claim in the original post.

When the post resurfaced, Hong responded not by apologizing but by defending a separate, older post ranking Culver's fried cheese curds, standing by her review that they're best eaten on the road rather than in the restaurant.

Breitbart also highlighted a 2021 post in which Hong wrote, "Police exist to uphold white supremacy. Defund then abolish. Reform can't be an option." Additional posts flagged by the outlet showed Hong criticizing Thanksgiving, Christmas, Valentine's Day, and fireworks-related celebrations, including a 2020 post reportedly calling for canceling Thanksgiving and a 2022 Valentine's Day post criticizing how the holiday treats service workers.

Speaking to Fox News last week, Hong walked back her earlier defund-police rhetoric. "The governor cannot defund the police, and I won't defund the police," she said, adding that she would instead "invest in the things we know prevent crime." She also told Fox that "people can evolve," addressing the gap between her past statements and her current messaging.

What's proven, what isn't

The polling numbers are the clearest fact here. State Navigate's survey shows a real, sizable lead for Hong heading into Tuesday's vote, though it is a single poll from one firm and hasn't been independently confirmed by other pollsters in this race. Her past social media statements are also verifiable, screenshotted and dated. What's less settled is how voters will weigh those old posts against her more moderate current messaging on policing, and whether Wisconsin's general electorate, not just Democratic primary voters, will treat "democratic socialist" as disqualifying or not.

Plenty of politicians moderate their positions over time, and holding a decade-old tweet against a candidate who says she's evolved is a common line of attack against any officeholder with a long public record. Hong's defenders would argue her current platform, not her 2019-2021 posts, is what voters should judge her on.

If Hong wins Tuesday's primary, she would face Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) in the general election. Tiffany represents Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District and is seen as the likely GOP nominee. That general election matchup would test whether Wisconsin, a perennial swing state that Donald Trump carried in 2024, is willing to elect a self-described socialist as governor, or whether Hong's past statements on policing, ICE, and cultural issues become a liability once general-election voters, not just Democratic primary voters, are weighing in.