NHL Projects Salary Cap Hitting $127.5 Million by 2028-29, a $32 Million Jump in Three Years

The NHL's salary cap is about to keep climbing, and fast. According to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, the league gave teams its first official estimate for the 2028-29 salary cap at this week's Board of Governors meeting: $127.5 million. That's in U.S. dollars, and it would be a $14 million jump from the 2027-28 ceiling of $113.5 million, according to Friedman's reporting, picked up by Bleacher Nation, ClutchPoints and The Big Lead.

Do the math over three seasons and the picture widens. The cap sits at $104 million for the 2026-27 season, up from $95.5 million the year before, according to ngscsports. It rises to $113.5 million in 2027-28. If the $127.5 million figure holds for 2028-29, that's a $32 million increase in three years, roughly a 33.5 percent jump.

For context, the cap was $39 million when the NHL introduced it for the 2005-06 season after a lockout wiped out the entire 2004-05 campaign, according to The Big Lead. It sat frozen at $81.5 million from 2019 through 2022 during COVID. This is a different era entirely.

Why the Money Is Flowing

Revenue is the engine. Commissioner Gary Bettman told teams the league projects approximately $8.1 billion in revenue, in mixed currency, for the upcoming season, according to Friedman's report as relayed by ClutchPoints and Bleacher Nation. The cap formula is tied to actual hockey-related revenue, so when the league makes more, the ceiling goes up.

Bettman also framed this as something more deliberate than simple growth. "The cap going up at the rate it's going up is still a function of recapturing where we're supposed to be after years of the flat cap," Bettman said, according to ClutchPoints. "So that number continues to be inflated as we try to create a smooth increase in caps and not drive everybody crazy by who happened to be a free agent in a year when the cap took a huge jump. Once we recapture, which will take probably two more years, give or take, then it will go up at the same rate as revenues grow."

This explanation means teams shouldn't assume $14 million jumps are the new normal after 2028-29.

Not a Done Deal

This number isn't locked in. The NHL and NHLPA are currently in the second year of a three-season agreement, struck in January 2025, that set the $104 million and $113.5 million figures, according to Bleacher Nation. The 2028-29 number falls outside that original deal.

Deputy commissioner Bill Daly noted the estimate doesn't account for the possibility that the league and players' union could negotiate a different figure, according to ClutchPoints. Sports.yahoo's Chris Gosselin called it "an estimate, not a locked-in number," and noted that projections shared at Board of Governors meetings have shifted before. That's a fair caveat, given the number sits outside the formal agreement.

Who Wins, Who Gets Squeezed

Players are the clear winners regardless of where the final number lands. This offseason already produced a wave of record contracts: Cale Makar and Macklin Celebrini signed deals pushing into new financial territory, according to Newsweek, while Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli, the top three picks from the 2023 draft, all signed second contracts that now rank among the league's five largest cap hits, according to Bleacher Nation. Washington's Ryan Leonard signed at $10.5 million average annual value. Carlsson's offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers, plus a string of no-trade and no-move clause holders requesting trades out of their current teams, is reshaping roster-building even before the cap jump hits, per Bleacher Nation's reporting.

The rising floor is the other side. The salary floor for 2026-27 is $76.9 million; it rises to $83.9 million in 2027-28, according to Bleacher Nation and ngscsports. That's higher than the entire salary cap was just four years ago. Smaller-market Canadian franchises, which earn revenue in Canadian dollars against a cap denominated in U.S. currency, face a real squeeze as the ceiling rises this fast, a concern raised specifically by Sports.yahoo's reporting. Whether the NHL builds in any currency accommodation for those clubs remains an open question none of the current reporting answers.

The next NHL season is expected to begin September 29, with the defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes scheduled to open their campaign at home against the Florida Panthers and raise their Stanley Cup banner beforehand, according to The Big Lead. The $127.5 million figure won't become official for two more offseasons, leaving general managers to plan roster moves now against a number that Bettman's own deputy says could still change.