Minnesota Poll: Walz Hits Record-Low 39% Approval, Trails Trump by 2 Points in His Own State

The Numbers

A Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc. survey conducted June 8-10, 2026 for KARE 11, the Minnesota Star Tribune, and the University of Minnesota's Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication puts Gov. Tim Walz at 39% approval and 53% disapproval, with 8% unsure. The poll sampled 800 Minnesota registered voters likely to participate in the November general election via live telephone interviews.

That 39% is Walz's lowest approval rating since he took office in January 2019, according to NewsBusters. In May 2020, at the height of his pandemic-era profile, Walz hit 65% approval in the same polling series. He has shed 26 points over six years.

The same poll put President Trump's approval among Minnesota voters at 41% — two points higher than the sitting Democratic governor. Minnesota voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. Walz was Harris's running mate.

What's Driving It

The fraud issue looms large. According to KARE 11's reporting cited by NewsBusters, 54% of respondents said they are very concerned about fraud in Minnesota's social service programs, and another 27% said somewhat concerned. That's 81% registering concern at some level.

On who voters trust to fix it: 45% said Republicans, 38% said Democrats, and 14% said neither party could handle it. That's a seven-point Republican advantage on an issue that cuts directly to questions of competence under Walz's watch.

Federal enforcement has been active in the state. The Trump administration assembled a task force under Vice President JD Vance targeting theft in publicly funded social programs, which produced raids and arrests in Minnesota. The largest documented fraud cases involved the Feeding Our Future scandal, described by federal prosecutors as one of the largest COVID-relief fraud schemes in U.S. history, which unfolded during Walz's tenure. Charges in that case were brought by federal prosecutors; Walz's administration did not initiate the investigation.

The Fair Case for Walz

The strongest defense Walz's supporters can make is legitimate. The Feeding Our Future fraud was federal pandemic money routed through a federal program and exploited by a criminal network that deliberately obscured its activities from state monitors. Critics of the pile-on argue that no state-level oversight system is designed to catch a coordinated criminal conspiracy at the scale federal prosecutors described, and that the fraud was ultimately uncovered and prosecuted, just not by Walz's office. Democratic defenders also point out that Walz is not seeking re-election, so the political damage does not translate directly into a seat change at the governor's mansion.

Those are fair points. But polling data does not grade on a curve. A majority of Minnesota voters, 53%, disapprove of Walz, and a plurality trusts the other party more on the defining issue of his final term, regardless of how the legal blame is ultimately apportioned.

Source Framing Note

Both Breitbart sources and the NewsBusters piece covered the same underlying poll, but Breitbart's version spent meaningful space on the new Minnesota state flag and Rep. Tom Emmer's comments linking the flag's design to the Somali community. That framing conflates a separate cultural dispute with the fraud polling and implies a connection the poll data itself does not establish. The flag question in the poll, 50% disapproval, is a real finding worth noting, but Emmer's characterization of it as a statement about the Somali community is his political spin, not a poll result.

None of the three source articles include a direct statement from Walz's office responding to the poll numbers. That's a material omission across the board.

What Comes Next

Walz announced he will not seek a third term, so the approval collapse does not directly decide his political fate. The consequential question is whether the fraud issue reshapes the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial race. The poll's finding that Republicans hold a seven-point trust advantage on fraud over Democrats heading into a midterm cycle is the number both parties' campaign strategists in the state will be monitoring between now and November.