Hawaii Republicans Pick Contractor Gary Cordery to Challenge Gov. Josh Green in November

Gary Cordery, a Honolulu-area contracting company owner, won the Republican nomination for Hawaii governor on Saturday, beating business owner Ken Fujiyama in the primary, according to Fox News.

He now moves on to face Democratic Gov. Josh Green in November.

The Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic with a Partisan Voting Index of D+13. Green cruised through his own primary against three underfunded challengers, according to Eagle Country 99.3, which cited his 56% approval rating and $3.5 million campaign war chest as reasons none of them had a real path.

Cordery, by comparison, has raised about $313,000, according to Honolulu Civil Beat. That represents roughly a 10-to-1 cash disadvantage against an incumbent nine months before Election Day.

The Republican Drought

Hawaii has not elected a Republican governor since Linda Lingle left office in 2010. That is a 16-year stretch of Democratic control of the governor's mansion, and Green would be defending it for a second term.

No state has been friendlier to Democrats at the top of the ticket in recent decades. A Republican breaking through would be one of the bigger upsets in the country this cycle. Nobody serious is predicting it happens.

What Cordery Is Selling

Cordery is running on cost of living, education reform and rooting out corruption. In an interview with Honolulu Civil Beat, he said: "As a husband, father and grandfather, businessman and community servant, I love Hawai'i. These islands of unique beauty have endured mismanagement for decades. Her people live under tremendous stress and anxiety. I am running to open opportunity, create abundance and ensure stewardship of her resources, bringing accountability and hope for the people."

His housing plan calls for building 15,000 homes across the islands for working families, priced between roughly $400,000 and $600,000. He wants to use state-owned land for fee-simple housing, streamline permitting, and open more land for residential development. Hawaii's housing costs are among the highest in the nation, and that is a real, provable problem regardless of which party is running the state.

He is also pitching elimination of the state's General Excise Tax on food and medicine, and a freeze on property taxes for homeowners once they hit retirement age. Cordery says the state mismanages taxpayer money and has promised audits to find waste.

Hawaii's cost of living is brutal, and voters across the political spectrum in the islands have complained about it for years. Whether a first-time statewide candidate with a fraction of the incumbent's resources can turn that frustration into votes is a separate question.

The Green Side of the Ledger

Green is not without vulnerabilities. He has faced criticism over Hawaii's response to and recovery from the 2023 Lahaina wildfires, which killed more than 100 people and displaced thousands on Maui. President Biden visited the devastated area with Green in August 2023.

A 56% approval rating heading into a re-election year is a strong position for any governor, red state or blue. Green's fundraising advantage lets him outspend Cordery many times over on advertising and voter outreach between now and November.

What to Watch

Two other Hawaii races drew attention the same weekend. Progressive Rep. Jill Tokuda beat three Democratic primary challengers to advance to the general election against Republican Brenton Awa in the 2nd Congressional District, according to Eagle Country 99.3. And longtime Rep. Ed Case survived his toughest primary yet against progressive state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, who had attacked Case over his vote on the SAVE America Act and his stance on Trump.

A fourth Democratic congressional hopeful, Kirill Basin, was arrested on felony terroristic threatening charges after police said he threatened a beachgoer with a knife, an incident captured on video, according to Fox News. That knocked him out of contention before the primary.

Cordery has a real platform on housing and taxes, but he is running against a popular incumbent with roughly an 11-to-1 fundraising lead in a state Republicans have not won statewide in a generation. The general election is set for November, and unless something shifts dramatically, Green remains the heavy favorite.