GOP Moves Money to Once-Safe Seats as Trump Tells Reporters 'I'm Here Whether We Win This or Not'

Nineteen days before the Nov. 3 midterms, and in the eighth month of the Iran war, Republican strategists are no longer playing offense. They are deciding which seats to save.

The Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP super PAC in Senate races, has suspended its ad reservations in North Carolina. It has put at least $10 million into Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and $5 million into South Carolina to help Sen. Graham against Democrat Annie Andrews. Those moves come on top of more than $100 million the group has spent in Texas for Ken Paxton, who faces Democrat James Talarico after a bruising primary.

"We shouldn't have a fight in a place like Texas, but obviously we do," a Trump adviser told CNN. Trump has traveled to Texas three times in a month on Paxton's behalf.

Trump's new line

On Wednesday, Oct. 14, Trump told reporters in Arizona and Montana: "I've won my election. I'm here whether we win this or not."

That is a change from the message he delivered in Alaska earlier this week, when he told supporters to "pretend" his name is on the ballot. He has repeated that request at rallies in recent weeks. He has also promised to visit 32 states and districts where Republicans are in trouble.

Last month Trump said in the Oval Office that he did not understand the expected losses. "Whoever wins the presidency, Republican or Democrat, automatically does poorly in the midterms," he said. "I don't know why ... but we shouldn't."

He is right about the history. The president's party usually loses ground in midterms. This year, though, the polling points to something larger than the usual drift.

The numbers

VoteHub's Oct. 15 forecast projects 231 Democratic and 204 Republican House seats, and a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Cook Political Report's Oct. 9 House ratings put 213 seats in the Democratic columns, 201 in the Republican columns and 21 as tossups. Its Oct. 6 Senate ratings listed seven tossups, six of them Republican-held.

Prediction markets agree. Kalshi prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 61 percent, and Polymarket gives roughly 6 in 10. These are forecasts and trader sentiment, not votes, and both can move sharply before Election Day.

The new AP-NORC poll of registered voters finds about half want Democrats to control the House or the Senate. Roughly 4 in 10 want Republicans in charge, and 15 percent are undecided. About half want "substantial change," and roughly 3 in 10 want "complete and total upheaval."

The issue mix is not friendly to the GOP. About 8 in 10 voters name the economy or cost of living as a top issue. About two-thirds say the same of healthcare and of the war in Iran. Immigration and crime, issues that favor Trump, rank lower.

Enthusiasm also favors Democrats. About three-quarters of Democratic voters say voting is "extremely" important, against roughly 6 in 10 Republicans. CNN's poll of polls puts Trump's approval at 33 percent.

Privately, a different tone

Politico reported Wednesday that five Republican lawmakers, speaking anonymously, said the House is practically already lost. One predicted Democrats would gain around 10 seats, more than they need for a majority. Another said the goal is to "save as many Republican seats as possible." Politico reported the focus is shifting to protecting the Senate majority.

A House Republican seeking re-election told CNN: "Trump is dragging the party down." Some Republicans now worry his presence on the trail may do more harm than good in certain districts.

The White House rejects that framing. Spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump the party's "unequivocal leader" and said his positions on the economy and the border give voters a clear choice between a "commonsense agenda" and the "Democrats' extreme liberal policies and obstruction." Ingle has also said Trump built "one of the most robust coalitions in political history."

There is a turnout logic behind the rally schedule. The MAGA base is about 30 percent of the electorate, and a GOP that is already behind cannot afford to have those voters stay home. That is also why Trump alternates between competitive states and friendly ones where he can point to his three wins.

Money is not fixing it

The GOP has a large cash advantage, helped by the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. CNN reports the spending has not significantly shifted the race, partly because more of it is now going to seats Republicans once counted as comfortable. Republican leaders are also directing money toward Midwest Senate contests in places such as Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas.

House Republican leaders are expected in the coming days to narrow their focus to winnable races and cut investment in candidates who are fading, according to people familiar with the plans cited by CNN. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers.

It is unclear whether the strategy holds the Senate. Trump has said he stays in the Oval Office either way, and the Nov. 3 vote will show whether Republicans keep a check on his agenda in Congress.