Georgia and Alabama GOP Runoffs Test Trump's Endorsement Power on Tuesday

Since Brian Kemp endorsed Burt Jones for Georgia governor on June 13, the two highest-profile runoffs on the ballot today have crystallized into a direct test of competing Republican power centers: Trump's national brand versus the state-level establishment.

Georgia Senate: Collins vs. Dooley

In Georgia's U.S. Senate Republican runoff, Rep. Mike Collins faces former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley. Collins won roughly 41% in the May 19 primary; Dooley took around 30%, with Rep. Buddy Carter eliminated after finishing third, according to CBS News.

Trump endorsed Collins over the weekend. Dooley has Kemp's backing and is pitching himself as a political outsider, though he has pledged to work with Trump. Collins has leaned into his Trump alignment hard, positioning himself as a reliable House ally of the president.

The stakes are high. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who won his seat in 2021 by 1.2 points in a runoff, is the only Democrat up for reelection in a state Trump carried in 2024, making Georgia a top Republican target for flipping the Senate seat. CBS News noted Ossoff has used the extended Republican primary period to build a significant fundraising advantage.

Georgia Governor: Jones vs. Jackson

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who holds Trump's endorsement (given back in August), finished more than 50,000 votes ahead of billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson in the May primary. But a first-place primary finish doesn't guarantee the runoff, as CBS News pointed out: in 2018, Kemp pulled just 25% in the primary and 69% in the runoff.

Jackson won the support of Attorney General Chris Carr's primary voters — Carr took nearly 12% in May — and is competing for the bloc that backed Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who took 15%. Both those voter pools are up for grabs, and Jackson has cultivated the MAGA-outsider lane, positioning himself as a disruptor despite being a billionaire businessman, according to The Downballot.

Kemp's late endorsement of Jones, covered in our previous reporting, adds a layer of establishment credibility to a candidate who already holds Trump's blessing. That alignment is unusual. In recent cycles Kemp and Trump have been adversaries.

Alabama Senate: Moore vs. Hudson

Alabama's open U.S. Senate seat may be the most unpredictable race tonight. Trump endorsed Rep. Barry Moore back in January. Moore, described by The Downballot as one of the House's most prominent election deniers, finished first in the primary with 39%. Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson took second with 26%.

Hudson is running as a conservative outsider who can win a general election — the same playbook that has knocked out seven GOP House incumbents seeking promotions in 2026 primaries so far, according to The Downballot. Hudson's allies have also pressed a claim that Moore misrepresented his National Guard service as combat experience overseas. Moore's team pushed back, telling supporters he had "never claimed to be" in combat, and countered by linking Hudson to Democratic donors. Pollsters are split on who holds the edge, The Downballot noted.

The fair case for the insurgents

The strongest argument for both Hudson and Jackson deserves to be stated plainly: Trump endorsees don't have a perfect record in 2026 primaries, and Republican voters have shown repeatedly this cycle that they're willing to prioritize electability and freshness over a presidential stamp of approval. Hudson is a combat veteran with a clean biographical profile. Jackson self-funded heavily and has made a coherent pitch that the Georgia governorship needs a businessman outside the career-politician track. These are legitimate arguments within the GOP, not fringe positions.

What each major outlet is emphasizing

Fox News framed the day primarily through the lens of Trump's endorsement power being "tested" without drilling into the specific mechanics of each race. CBS News provided the most granular primary vote-share data and the clearest rundown of how crossover voters from eliminated candidates could decide the governor's race. The Downballot gave the most detailed accounting of Hudson's specific vulnerabilities argument against Moore and the broader 2026 pattern of incumbents losing promotion bids.

What happens next

Georgia polls close at 7 PM ET. Alabama polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time. If either Moore or Jones loses tonight, it will be the most concrete signal yet that Trump's early endorsements — both given months before primary day — carry less automatic weight than they did in 2022. Conversely, if both hold on, the conventional wisdom about MAGA-outsider energy threatening incumbents gets significantly complicated heading into the fall campaign season.