D.C. Circuit Pauses Block on Trump's USPS Mail Ballot Rule, But 24 Jurisdictions Still Exempt

What changed since Friday

Since the D.C. Circuit's Friday, July 17 order, the legal fight over President Trump's mail-ballot rule has split into two tracks that don't agree with each other.

A three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit granted the Postal Service's request to stay a nationwide injunction issued by U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan earlier in July, according to Democracy Docket. Sullivan had blocked USPS from implementing the rule, siding with the NAACP's argument that it violated a 2021 settlement requiring USPS to prioritize timely delivery of election mail through 2028.

The appeals panel disagreed, at least for now. It found USPS made a strong showing that the NAACP's challenge is premature, since the rule is still in proposed form, and that the rule likely wouldn't violate the 2021 settlement even if finalized. The panel also credited USPS's argument that keeping Sullivan's injunction in place could make it impossible to finalize any rule before the November 2026 midterms, writing that "there can be no do over" once the election happens, per Democracy Docket.

The rule itself

Under the proposal, states would have to send USPS lists of voters who requested mail or absentee ballots, along with barcode data tied to each ballot. USPS would use that information, sometimes described as a ballot mail portal, to decide whether to transmit ballot mail at all, according to Newsweek. Each envelope would carry a unique barcode linked to a specific voter so USPS can track it through the system.

The rule traces back to Executive Order 14399, which directed federal agencies to build verified citizen lists and directed USPS to refuse mail ballots unless states comply with the new list and envelope requirements, according to the Lynnwood Times. USPS published the proposed rule in early June.

Voting rights advocates, including the NAACP, argue this hands the Postal Service a veto over ballot delivery for voters who aren't on an approved list or in states that don't comply with the new federal paperwork. Mail ballot delivery has historically been close to automatic once a voter is registered and requests one, and inserting a federal verification gate close to a midterm is a real operational change, not a paperwork tweak.

The administration's counter, reflected in the appeals panel's reasoning, is that the challenge is premature because no final rule exists yet, and that basic ballot tracking and voter-list verification is a reasonable anti-fraud safeguard states already do in various forms. Neither the D.C. Circuit panel nor the sources here found actual fraud tied to this rule. The dispute so far is about legal authority and timing, not proven fraud.

Friday's ruling doesn't cover the whole country

The rule is still blocked in 24 jurisdictions, according to the Lynnwood Times.

On June 25, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani in Massachusetts issued a 37-page ruling finding key provisions of Executive Order 14399 unconstitutional, according to the Lynnwood Times. She ruled that Trump and USPS lacked authority to regulate state election procedures this way and enjoined the relevant sections against 23 states — including Pennsylvania, represented by Governor Josh Shapiro — plus the District of Columbia, for a total of 24 jurisdictions. Those states include Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

That injunction wasn't part of Friday's D.C. Circuit stay and remains in force. So even with the appeals court green light, USPS still can't apply the rule in those 24 jurisdictions. Newsweek's coverage frames Friday's ruling as a clean "legal victory" for Trump without noting that patchwork, which understates how contested and incomplete the rule's actual reach is at this point.

What still has to happen before this rule can apply nationwide

For the rule to take full effect across all 50 states, USPS would likely need an advisory opinion from the Postal Regulatory Commission, an independent body that oversees major USPS operational changes. USPS has not filed a formal request for that opinion, according to the Lynnwood Times. The commission generally has up to 90 days to rule once a request is filed.

States typically start mailing ballots in mid-September for the November midterms. Given the PRC's 90-day window and the fact that USPS hasn't even started that clock, the timeline to finalize and implement this rule nationally before ballots go out is extremely tight, a point Newsweek's own reporting acknowledges when describing the "narrow window" election officials face.

The underlying question, whether the federal government can dictate ballot verification procedures that states have historically controlled, remains unresolved. Judge Sullivan's case continues in district court even as USPS moves forward under the stay, and Judge Talwani's constitutional ruling in the Massachusetts case is presumably headed toward its own appeal. Both tracks will need to resolve, likely through further appellate rulings, before anyone knows what rules actually govern mail ballots in November.