Reuters/Ipsos, Pew and YouGov Put Trump Approval Between 30% and 38%, With Republican and Hispanic Support Slipping

Since Fox News released its Oct. 9-12 survey putting Trump's approval at 36%, the lowest in either of his terms in that poll, the other major pollsters have produced numbers that are no better. The spread is 30% to 38%. The differences are in who is slipping.

The other polls

Pew Research Center surveyed 5,062 U.S. adults from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4 and recorded 30% approval and 68% disapproval. The margin of error is 1.6 points.

Reuters/Ipsos polled 4,506 respondents from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5 and found 32% approval and 65% disapproval, with a 1.5-point margin of error. That matches the record low the same pollster recorded in September.

Economist/YouGov, conducted Oct. 10-12 among 1,403 registered voters, is the high end: 38% approve, 61% disapprove, with a 3.5-point margin of error.

Different samples, different dates, different populations. Adults, registered voters and likely voters are not the same crowd. None of them shows a number above 40%.

Where the erosion is

The Reuters/Ipsos poll found Democrats leading the generic ballot among registered voters, 44% to 37%. Independents split 37% to 21% for Democrats, with 28% undecided.

Hispanic voters moved most. Only 24% of Hispanic Americans approved of Trump, the lowest of either term. Among Hispanic registered voters, 52% plan to vote Democratic and 26% Republican. Trump won nearly half of the Hispanic vote in 2024, up from roughly one-third in 2020.

The poll also found the Republican advantage among voters 50 and older has shrunk to 2 points, from 8 points in December.

The party base is moving too. Alec Tyson, senior vice president and lead pollster at Ipsos Public Affairs, told The Hill that Ipsos polling shows Republican approval of Trump at 73%, down from 82% a week earlier, 86% in January and 91% after the January 2025 inauguration. Republican approval of his handling of the economy is 56% and of the cost of living 44%.

"Those are striking numbers," Tyson said. "Numbers that we hadn't seen until recent weeks here in our Ipsos polling."

Fox's own survey shows the same direction, with Republican approval at 76%, down 3 points in a month and 12 points since September 2025.

The economy is the driver

In the Fox poll, six in 10 voters name the cost of living as their top economic worry. Trump's approval on inflation is 22%, a new low for him in that poll. Disapproval is 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy and 69% on tariffs. Fifty-five percent say inflation is "not at all" under control, including 30% of Republicans.

The Fox survey has Democrats ahead 54% to 45% in House races among registered voters. Among those certain to vote, the margin narrows to 52% to 46%. Seven in 10 voters said they would use their vote to send a message to Trump: 47% of voters said it would be opposition, 25% support.

Republicans still lead on some issues. Border security splits 50% approve, 50% disapprove, the only issue near even. Voters also gave Republicans an edge on crime and immigration.

What Republicans say back

Trump's approval among self-described MAGA Republicans remains at an all-time high, according to the polling cited by Breitbart. Trump and his allies have leaned into attacks on the rise of Democratic Socialists to keep the base energized.

Republican strategists are less comfortable. William F. B. O'Reilly told The Hill that "there's a major risk that a lot of Republicans will be staying home in November, while Democrats turn out in droves." He blamed "dissatisfaction with the Iran war strategy and rising gas prices."

Republican analyst Ford O'Connell said Republicans must argue that conditions will improve if they keep Congress.

Trump has tried to answer on prices in his own way. He said fuel costs were a "very inexpensive price to pay" for strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, a line Democrats attacked. He has also said the country could afford $5,000 payments to every American adult if Republicans keep Congress. Speaker Mike Johnson said Congress would have to approve the plan. Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., asked how it would be paid for given the national debt of $4 trillion.

Lisa Gilbert, co-president of Public Citizen, read the Fox numbers differently, saying they show "the public is furious about the corruption they see from the government." The poll's own findings center on prices, and corruption was not listed among the economic worries.

What comes next

Voters go to the polls Nov. 3. Last month, Gary Black of The Future Fund cited Kalshi prediction-market data giving Democrats a 91% chance of winning the House and a 61% chance of taking the Senate. Markets are not votes.

The open question is turnout. The Fox likely-voter squeeze, from 9 points to 6, shows how much depends on who actually shows up. Republican approval of Trump on the economy at 56% in Ipsos polling is a number his party has 16 days to move.