NBA's Adam Silver Says League Wants Prediction Market Data, Backs Federal Oversight and a 21 Age Minimum

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said the league wants access to prediction market trading data so it can detect insider trading and manipulation. He made the case in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview today, Oct. 9.

"Whether it's called a prediction market, whether it's sports betting, it's the same issues for our league and I think for all the leagues, there's issues around integrity first and foremost," Silver told CNBC's Contessa Brewer. "We want access to that data. We also want control of the market."

Silver singled out contracts on whether a coach will be fired. He called that "odd behavior."

Where the NBA and NFL split

Silver's comments came one day after the NFL filed an amicus brief with the Supreme Court on Thursday, Oct. 8. The brief backs New Jersey regulators. It argues that sports contracts on prediction markets are gambling, not financial swaps, which are regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The NFL brief also raised manipulation concerns about contracts tied to player injuries and performance. It urged a minimum trading age of 21, the benchmark several states use for sportsbooks.

Silver agreed on the age floor. He parted ways on the regulator.

"Frankly, from at least the NBA standpoint, we have roughly 40 different jurisdictions regulating us right now," Silver said. "So to have a consistent policy nationally, I think would be in our best interest."

So two major leagues agree on the problem and disagree on who should police it. The NFL wants state gambling regulators. The NBA wants Washington, with the league getting data access and a say over which markets are listed.

What the NBA has already asked for

The league did not arrive here overnight. In an April 30 comment letter to the CFTC, the NBA asked for limits on player-prop and injury markets, a minimum trading age of 21, a ban on league staff trading relevant contracts, and a requirement that platforms cooperate with league investigations.

Crypto Briefing reported that the NBA has also held talks with Kalshi and Polymarket about possible data-sharing and marketing partnerships. Neither platform has announced a deal with the league.

The legal fight is still open

The jurisdiction question is being fought in court, and the results so far are mixed. Multiple courts have ruled in favor of states overseeing prediction market exchanges instead of the CFTC.

Last week, a court in Illinois went the other way. It halted the state from enforcing its gambling laws against Kalshi and Coinbase event contracts. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara called the ruling "beautiful" on social media.

That is the platforms' side: these are federally regulated event contracts, not sportsbooks, and states have no business applying gambling law to them. The NFL's brief and the other court rulings go the opposite direction. Courts are not settled on this, and the Supreme Court filing suggests the question is headed for the highest level.

Why the timing matters

Volumes on NFL prediction market contracts have soared since the season kicked off a month ago. The NBA season starts Oct. 20, eleven days from today, and a new slate of contracts will trade on every game night.

Silver's coach-firing example points at a structural problem. A firing is decided by a handful of people in a front office. Anyone in that room, or anyone they talk to, knows the outcome before the market does. A contract on a game result at least depends on play that nobody can fully predict.

Nobody has said any such trading has occurred in the NBA. The league's request is about being able to find out if it does.

What comes next

Silver's two asks are data access and control over which contracts get listed. Whether the NBA gets either depends on two things still unresolved: who ends up regulating these platforms, and what the CFTC does with the league's April comments.

The Supreme Court has the NFL's brief in hand. The NBA tips off Oct. 20 under the existing patchwork of roughly 40 jurisdictions that Silver says he wants to replace.