MLB Executives Pick Brewers, Not Dodgers, as NL's Team to Beat Heading Into October

Sixteen MLB executives and scouts were asked one question heading into the stretch run: which NL team do you least want to face in October. Six picked the Milwaukee Brewers. Five picked the Los Angeles Dodgers. Four went with the Philadelphia Phillies, and one named the Chicago Cubs, according to a poll reported by both Newsweek and TSN.

The Brewers enter the stretch run leading all of MLB in wins with 93 and a run differential of plus-195, according to Newsweek. They hold a five-game cushion for the NL's first-round bye and sit 2.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the NL bracket. At American Family Field, Milwaukee is 52-26 with a .780 team OPS this season.

One NL executive told the pollsters the Brewers' young core doesn't rattle. "I like the Brewers. Their young players don't ever seem fazed by the moment," the executive said, according to TSN. "And there could be some weakness with the Dodgers if Ohtani can't be himself and pitch. Milwaukee is just a little bit better in all phases plus has more pitching than a year ago."

An NL scout leaned on the same two names driving Milwaukee's staff. "It's Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson that give me more confidence this time around than last year when I picked them," the scout said. "That one-two combo can hang with the Dodgers."

The Ohtani concern isn't speculation. MLB.com's own playoff-odds breakdown flagged Ohtani's second-half slide and a late-season IL placement as a real drag on the Dodgers' October offense, on top of concerns about the Dodgers' bullpen depth in the late innings heading into the playoffs. The same MLB.com piece noted the Dodgers don't currently hold tiebreakers over the NL East-leading Braves or the NL Central-leading Brewers, meaning L.A. could be staring down another Wild Card round against tougher competition than the Cincinnati Reds series they breezed through in 2025.

None of this means the betting markets have given up on the Dodgers. BetMGM still lists Los Angeles as the favorite to win the NL pennant at +115, an implied probability of 46.51%, spending most of the season atop that market after opening at +200. FanGraphs' playoff odds, cited by MLB.com as of Friday, had the Dodgers at 28.6% to win the World Series outright, more than double any other team, with the Brewers next at 12%.

The 28.6% figure is notable. MLB.com pointed out it's the highest World Series odds any team has carried at this point in a season since the 2019 Houston Astros sat at 35.2%, and that Astros team didn't win it all. The Dodgers' own odds a year ago were 16.4%, and two years ago 19%, so the model has grown considerably more confident in Los Angeles even as the room full of executives has not.

There's a fair case for skepticism about the poll itself. Executive polls reward recency and vibes; teams like the Brewers, who beat the Dodgers in some head-to-head matchups this year, will always draw sympathy from rivals happy to see the two-time defending champs knocked down a peg. And the Dodgers' talent gap with the rest of the league remains real, which is exactly why the betting markets and the projection models haven't budged.

The LA Times' Dodgers Dugout newsletter captured the tension from inside the fanbase. ESPN Radio host John Ireland told the paper the Dodgers are "heavy favorites to win it all, but they rarely beat good teams," noting L.A. is 6-16 since the All-Star break against clubs with winning records. Co-host Steve Mason countered that the Dodgers "seem to be in a good groove right now," with Mookie Betts trending up, but he flagged the front office's handling of Ohtani's injury as a real worry heading into October.

No NL team has ever won three straight World Series. The Dodgers are trying to become the first, and the same LA Times piece noted Ireland's view that going back-to-back already makes the season a success regardless of what happens this fall.

What isn't in dispute: the Dodgers still have the highest-ceiling roster in baseball, according to MLB.com's own analysis. Whether Ohtani returns to form off the injured list and whether the Dodgers' bullpen can find its command in limited work will likely decide whether the executives' skepticism or the sportsbooks' math turns out to be right.