Giants Drafted Japan's Top Teen Pitcher Shoki Oda. The Industry Expects Him to Pick the Dodgers Anyway

Shoki Oda has not announced a decision. People familiar with his situation say he hasn't made one. But the expectation around the industry, according to the New York Post, is that the 18-year-old Yokohama High right-hander ends up with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If he follows the plan he laid out earlier this month, he would do something no Japanese star has done: go straight to the United States without first playing in Nippon Professional Baseball.

A prospect NPB can't easily replace

Oda's fastball touched 97 mph at Japan's national high school tournament. That was the fastest pitch ever recorded there. He came out of the same powerhouse program that produced Daisuke Matsuzaka, and he has drawn comparisons to Roki Sasaki.

The Yomiuri Giants took him with their first-round pick in the recent NPB draft. The Giants have 22 Japan Series titles, the most in league history, and Hideki Matsui, one of the most popular players Japanese baseball has produced, is their new manager.

The pitch to Oda is straightforward: stay home. The Post describes the effort as having the feel of a symbolic last stand.

Oda has been plain about what he wants. "I want to play in the No. 1 (league) in the world," he told reporters. "I want to be No. 1 in the world."

His favorite player is Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The only major league team he follows on Instagram is the Dodgers.

Japan's establishment sees a threat

The Japanese baseball establishment views the possibility as an existential threat to its domestic league, the Post reports. The worry is simple. NPB has long served as the proving ground that produced Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani and Sasaki. A league that loses its best teenagers before they ever pitch for it loses its pipeline.

Ohtani's own history shows how thin that line has been. He was close to signing with the Dodgers out of high school as a pitcher. The Nippon-Ham Fighters drafted him and talked him into staying by offering a chance to be a two-way player. The Giants may be hoping for a similar change of heart.

Oda is not the first to leave early

Oda would be the most prominent of a growing group of amateurs choosing the majors over NPB.

Last month, the San Diego Padres signed right-hander Tatsuya Nogami directly out of Osaka Sangyo University. This summer, Rintaro Sasaki signed with the Miami Marlins rather than the SoftBank Hawks. It was the second time he turned down NPB. After graduating from Hanamaki Higashi High, the alma mater of Ohtani and the Angels' Yusei Kikuchi, he skipped the NPB draft and enrolled at Stanford.

The difference with Oda is his ranking. No prospect of his caliber has signed with a major league organization as an amateur.

The attitude has shifted over three decades. Japan once treated Hideo Nomo as a traitor for joining the Dodgers. Now it wants its best players competing in the world's top league. The Dodgers have also benefited from the success of Ohtani, Sasaki and Yamamoto, which has made them the country's favorite major league team. The Post says they have achieved their goal of "painting Japan blue."

The established stars are a separate path

NPB still has a route that keeps its clubs in control: posting. A scout in the Pacific Rim, who spoke anonymously to MLB.com's Michael Clair, named several players who could be posted this winter.

Hanshin Tigers third baseman and outfielder Teruaki Sato, 27, hit .306/.383/.609 with 39 home runs and 106 RBI in 2026. He finished with the ninth triple crown in NPB history, in a Central League where teams averaged 3.4 runs per game against 4.48 in MLB. The scout called him a "big left-handed bat" who "can hit in big situations" and said he has faith the bat will carry over, citing the success of Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto this past season.

Right-hander Kaima Taira, 26, went 12-5 with a 1.36 ERA, 141 strikeouts and 45 walks in 146 innings. He throws a mid-90s fastball with a cutter, slider, change and split-finger. Both are listed with a 2027 arrival.

Those players would reach the majors only if their clubs post them. Oda's route doesn't need a club's permission once he's decided.

What comes next

Whether Oda announces a decision, and whether Matsui and the Giants can change his mind, remains open. Neither the Dodgers nor Oda has confirmed an agreement. The Giants hold his NPB rights as a draft pick, and the next move belongs to an 18-year-old who has said publicly he wants to be the best in the world.