BTIG Names 55 Top Picks for Second Half of 2026, Including On Holding, Palo Alto Networks, Capital One, and Rithm Capital

BTIG Sees Broadening Market, Makes 55 Calls for H2 2026

Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG's chief market technician, published a note this week laying out the firm's top stock picks for the back half of 2026. The thesis: the rally that followed U.S.-Iran war lows in late March has been too concentrated in tech, and sectors like financials, healthcare, and industrials are now picking up steam.

"We see evidence that the broadening can continue. Financials remain strong across banks, REITs, and insurance. Biotech is coming on strong as IBB breaks out of a five-year base," Krinsky wrote, according to CNBC.

He was less enthusiastic about the trades that led the rebound. "We have seen Mag7 quickly roll over, and while they can probably stabilize, we continue to think the semi/AI trade is vulnerable to a more meaningful unwind lower."

Three Names Getting the Most Attention

On Holding is the most aggressive call in the group. The Swiss athletic footwear company's shares are down more than 20% in 2026, and BTIG analyst Janine Stichter has a $70 price target — roughly 90% above where the stock closed Thursday, according to CNBC. Stichter's argument is that investor concern about slowing growth misreads the company's actual runway across lifestyle, running, distribution channels, product categories, and international markets.

Palo Alto Networks is the momentum call. Shares have already surged nearly 90% in 2026, and analyst Gray Powell still sees 9% more upside, with a $380 price target. Powell's case, per CNBC, is that Palo Alto has the broadest platform in cybersecurity and can sustain mid-teens revenue growth for several years.

Capital One Financial is the recovery play. The stock is down more than 15% in 2026, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P Financials sector. Analyst Vincent Caintic has a $259 target, implying roughly 26% upside from Thursday's close. The concern in the market has been Capital One's rising expenses following its acquisition of Discover. Caintic's counter, per CNBC, is that the spending is front-loaded and will generate revenue upside, productivity improvements, and margin expansion. "Our bull case is that COF shares do well if it simply executes on its planned integration," he wrote.

The Mortgage Play: Rithm Capital

Separately, BTIG named Rithm Capital as its top U.S. mortgage pick for the second half of the year. Rithm operates as a mortgage servicer and originator, and the firm's endorsement centers on operating efficiency and resilient mortgage demand.

The bull case, as outlined by Simply Wall St, projects $7.9 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in earnings by 2029. Hitting those numbers would require 23.1% annual revenue growth from a current earnings base of roughly $598.5 million, no small task.

Simply Wall St put a fair value estimate of $13.61 on the stock, implying roughly 46% upside. Notably, four members of the Simply Wall St community have estimated fair value anywhere between $13.61 and $39.71, which tells you how wide the disagreement is among people who have actually dug into the numbers.

The Rate Risk Nobody Should Ignore

The strongest concern around Rithm is straightforward and legitimate: the company is deeply sensitive to interest rate movements. Elevated or volatile rates weigh on mortgage origination volumes and the value of mortgage-related assets. This is a central risk of the entire business model.

Rithm recently issued $500 million in senior unsecured notes due 2031, according to Simply Wall St. That adds a fixed, higher-cost debt obligation at a moment when analysts already expect flat earnings per share alongside higher revenue. How the company manages that funding cost while capturing the efficiency gains BTIG is banking on is the proof point the thesis lives or dies on.

BTIG's focus on "resilient mortgage demand" and operational efficiency is a reasonable framing, but it does not make the rate sensitivity disappear. Investors who buy the BTIG thesis are essentially making a bet that rates stabilize or decline enough to sustain origination volumes through 2027 and beyond.

What This Is and Is Not

These are analyst price targets, not guarantees. BTIG is a sell-side firm, and sell-side targets historically skew optimistic. The On Holding 90% upside call and the Rithm fair-value spread of $13 to $39 are reminders that conviction and accuracy are two different things.

None of this constitutes investment advice. Each of these names carries company-specific and macro risks that a price target can obscure.

The one genuine open question sitting over all four names: if Krinsky is right that the semi/AI trade unwinds meaningfully, does that rotation actually lift financials, healthcare, and industrials in a sustained way, or does a broader risk-off move take the whole market lower, rotation story included? That question won't be answered until we see how the second half actually trades.