Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve — interest-rate decisions, inflation, and monetary policy — reported without spin.

96 articles shownof 96 totalLast updated 2026-09-07 02:58 UTC
au energy 6 5h ago 4 min read

Australia's Central Bank Says the AI Data Center Boom Is Now a Factor in Its Interest Rate Decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia has named the AI data center construction wave as an upside risk to inflation, right alongside oil prices and Middle East conflict spillover. Estimates put the investment pipeline at up to A$155 billion over the next decade, competing with housing and defense for the same workers, materials, and power. Americans are seeing a smaller version of the same squeeze show up on their electric bills.

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us politics 8 2d ago 4 min read

Trump Threatens to Halt Trade With Deficit Countries Unless the Fed Cuts Rates

President Trump used Friday's strong August jobs report to renew his demand that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cut interest rates, this time threatening to cut off trade entirely with countries that run surpluses against the U.S. if the Fed doesn't comply. It's a real escalation from a president who days earlier said he'd let his own appointee use his own judgment, and it lands right as the Fed's own governors are signaling a possible hike, not a cut, at the September meeting.

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gb finance 6 3d ago 3 min read

BoE's Huw Pill Pushes for Immediate Rate Hike as UK Gilt Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill told an Edinburgh audience the MPC should stop waiting and raise rates now, arguing a prompt quarter-point move beats a bigger catch-up hike later. He's still in the minority after being outvoted 6-3 in July, and markets aren't betting on him winning next time either.

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us finance 9 Aug 31 4 min read

Fed Chief Kevin Warsh Talks Tough on Inflation, Rate Hike Odds Jump Back Above 50%

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell, told the Jackson Hole gathering on Friday, August 28, that inflation hasn't meaningfully improved in 65 straight months of running above trend. Markets responded by pushing September rate hike odds from roughly one-in-three back above 50%, a swing that's already hitting the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah and other emerging-market currencies. The next real test comes with August's jobs report on September 4 and the Fed's meeting September 15-16.

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us finance 7 Aug 29 4 min read

Fed Chair Warsh Signals Openness to a September Rate Hike, Mortgage Rates Hold Near 6.6%

Mortgage rates have drifted back up toward the year's highs, according to Zillow, Freddie Mac and The Mortgage Reports data. Meanwhile Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Jackson Hole conference on Friday that a September rate hike is on the table if inflation doesn't cool, and Treasury yields barely budged in response, meaning mortgage rates may not follow the Fed's lead either way.

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us finance 7 Aug 26 4 min read

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Stuck at 3.7% in July, Rate Hike Odds Climb

Core PCE inflation held at 3.3% and headline PCE at 3.7% in July, both hotter than analysts expected, according to the Commerce Department. Markets now put roughly 40% odds on a Fed rate hike in September, up from under 33% a week earlier. Five years after inflation blew past the Fed's 2% target, Americans are still paying the price and the central bank still can't agree on what to do about it.

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us finance 8 Aug 26 4 min read

Fed Signals Rate Hike Still Possible, ECB Set to Hike in September as Inflation Refuses to Quit

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting show officials openly discussing a rate hike if inflation doesn't cool, with three regional bank presidents already pushing for one. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is on track to raise rates in September to 2.50%, with ECB board member Isabel Schnabel telling Bloomberg more tightening is needed. Two years after the Fed and ECB started cutting rates, both are now flirting with raising them again, and neither has hit its 2% inflation target.

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us finance 8 Aug 25 4 min read

Off-Balance-Sheet AI Debt Hits $3 Trillion, Nearly Double a July Estimate, as Even the Fed Can't Agree on the Risk

A Wall Street Journal analysis puts nine tech giants' off-balance-sheet AI obligations at roughly $3 trillion, almost double a $1.65 trillion estimate from six weeks earlier. Fed officials from Williams to Daly to Schmid are publicly split on whether this is manageable leverage among profitable companies or the early stage of a 2008-style credit problem, and 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest levels since 2007 suggest bond markets are starting to price in the strain.

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us finance 8 Aug 24 4 min read

National Debt Hits $40 Trillion as the Fed Sits on Half the 10-to-15-Year Treasury Market

The federal debt crossed $40 trillion this month, hitting a threshold the Congressional Budget Office once projected wouldn't arrive until 2028. At the same time, the Federal Reserve owns more than half of all Treasury bonds maturing 10 to 15 years out, a legacy of pandemic-era bond buying that's now distorting the market Washington relies on to borrow.

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us finance 4 Aug 23 3 min read

IRS Holds Interest Rate at 7 Percent for Q4 2026, Rolls Out New Automatic Penalty Relief

The IRS announced on Aug. 21 that interest rates on tax overpayments and underpayments will stay at 7% for individuals starting Oct. 1, unchanged from the third quarter. The agency also confirmed a new Automatic Exemption from Penalty program that will replace the old First Time Abate system for taxpayers with clean three-year filing records.

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us finance 6 Aug 23 3 min read

Ethereum Breaks Its 2021 Record After Powell Hints at a September Rate Cut

Ether cleared its November 2021 high on August 22, jumping nearly 15% in 24 hours on Coinbase after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible September rate cut at Jackson Hole. Bitcoin gained a comparatively modest 4% in the same window, and the buyer base this time looks less retail-driven than it did four years ago.

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us finance 5 Aug 21 4 min read

Lacy Hunt, a 40-Year Deflation Bull, Says the Fed Has Been Quietly Printing Money Since December

Hoisington Investment Management's Lacy Hunt says the Fed bought roughly $290 billion in Treasury bills between mid-December 2025 and June 30, 2026, calling it stealth quantitative easing dressed up as a restrictive policy stance. He's slashed his firm's bond duration from 21 years to under one and now expects long-run inflation of 3.5% to 4.5%, but not everyone agrees the debt and rate picture is actually abnormal.

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ir finance 6 Aug 17 1 min read Updated

Gold Nears $4,400 as Weak Retail Sales Data Sinks Rate Hike Odds

July retail sales fell 0.6%, the biggest monthly drop since May 2025, and gold jumped near $4,400 an ounce on bets the Fed stays put in September. Treasury yields rose anyway, and Iran's refusal to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz is adding a geopolitical premium the Fed can't control.

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jp finance 6 Aug 13 4 min read

Japan's Wholesale Prices Stay Hot, Setting Up September Rate Hike as Yen Defense Costs $200 Billion a Round

Japan's producer prices rose 7.2% in July, keeping pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates at its September 17-18 meeting. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs says Tokyo has enough dollar reserves for a couple more rounds of yen intervention like July's, but Goldman's own strategist admits the fix doesn't last.

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us finance 6 Aug 12 4 min read

July CPI Report Set for Wednesday: Economists Expect Mild Reading That Could Keep the Fed on Hold

Wednesday's July CPI report is expected to show just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core monthly inflation, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. A tame number would give Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the FOMC more room to sit on rates through the rest of the year, though the committee is already split on what comes next.

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us finance 7 Aug 11 4 min read

Wednesday's July CPI Report Could Decide Whether the Fed Hikes Rates in September

Wednesday's inflation report is a coin-flip moment for the Federal Reserve, which is currently split 50/50 on whether to raise rates next month after a weak July jobs report and months of tariff-driven price pressure. Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, so any upside surprise on core inflation could hit stocks hard.

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us economy 8 Aug 4 4 min read

Bessent Wants the Fed to Bankroll Japan's Yen Defense. That's a Bigger Ask Than the Intervention Itself.

Since Friday's coordinated dollar sales to prop up the yen, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has moved on to a bigger request: get the Federal Reserve to expand its FIMA lending facility so Japan can defend its currency without dumping Treasuries. That puts new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in a spot, deciding how far an independent central bank should go in propping up American financial diplomacy.

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us economy 6 Aug 2 4 min read

New Federal Loan Caps Push States to Offer Their Own Student Loans, With Interest Rates Up to 10.5%

Congress capped federal grad school borrowing starting July 1 under Trump's tax and spending law, and states like Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Minnesota are stepping in with their own loan programs. These state loans carry the government's name but function like private credit, with rates that can beat or badly trail federal loans depending on the borrower's credit.

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us finance 4 Aug 1 3 min read

Wall Street's Bond Managers Are Betting on Short-Term Treasurys, Not the Fed Cutting Rates

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this past week, and at least one major asset manager, Allspring Global Investments, says the smart money should stop chasing long-term bonds and focus on short-term Treasurys instead. The reasoning: the market is now pricing in the possibility of Fed hikes, not cuts, over the next couple of years.

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us economy 7 Aug 1 3 min read

10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.7%, Higher Than When Trump Took Office. Rate Cut Promise Nowhere in Sight

Trump promised Fed rate cuts would be 'Rocket Fuel' for the economy. Instead, borrowing costs are higher than when he took office, the government spent $827 billion servicing debt this fiscal year, and his own new Fed chair Kevin Warsh won't say how he'll fix inflation. The tariffs, AI data-center borrowing binge, and Iran war are all pushing rates the wrong direction.

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us economy 3 Jul 28 4 min read

New UK Education Secretary Lucy Powell Calls Student Loan Interest Rates 'Egregious,' Promises Review But No Fixes Yet

Lucy Powell, Labour's new education secretary, says fixing England's student loan repayment system is at the top of her priority list and repeats her past claim that Plan 2 interest rates are 'egregious.' She won't commit to any specific change, and the freeze on the repayment threshold that Rachel Reeves defended last year is still in place.

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us tech 8 Jul 21 4 min read

The Fed Still Doesn't Have Access to Anthropic's Mythos AI Model, Chairman Warsh Tells Senate

Since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell called banks in for an emergency briefing on Anthropic's Mythos model back in April, the Federal Reserve itself has been locked out of the tool it wants banks patched against. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Senate last week he's still asking for access, months later. The agency in charge of supervising the banking system's cybersecurity can't test the very AI model driving the crisis.

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us finance 5 Jul 21 3 min read

DoubleLine Says High Bond Yields Are Doing the Fed's Job for It, Bets on Zero Rate Hikes in 2026

DoubleLine Capital is loading up on shorter-dated Treasuries, betting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh won't need to hike or cut rates for the rest of 2026 because elevated bond yields are already squeezing the economy. Bank of America disagrees and still expects three hikes before year-end. The federal funds rate has sat at 3.50%-3.75% since Warsh took over in May.

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us economy 7 Jul 16 3 min read

Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 4% After June PPI Posts Its Biggest Drop Since April 2025

Traders have all but erased bets on a Fed rate hike this month after Wednesday's PPI report showed producer prices fell 0.3% in June, the sharpest monthly decline since April 2025. The July hike probability, which was already low, has dropped to just 4%, and September odds fell from 59% to 41.5% in 24 hours.

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us economy 8 Jul 14 4 min read

Warsh Tells House Panel the Fed Has 'No Tolerance' for Inflation, Even as June CPI Cools to 3.5%

Kevin Warsh testified before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday that June's cooler inflation reading doesn't mean the fight is over, and he's rolling out five internal task forces to overhaul how the Fed operates. He heads to the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday, where Chairman Tim Scott says he wants Warsh talking about AI data centers, not just interest rates.

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us economy 8 Jul 14 4 min read

June CPI Comes in Cooler Than Expected at 3.5%, But Warsh Tells Congress the Fed Isn't Backing Off Inflation Fight

June inflation dropped to 3.5% annually, beating forecasts of 3.8%, largely because gas and fuel oil prices fell over 9% during a brief Iran ceasefire. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh used his first congressional testimony to promise inflation will be a 'thing of the past' while leaning hard on AI investment as a growth story. Bond traders still see a real shot at a rate hike, not a cut, at the Fed's July 28-29 meeting.

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us economy 7 Jul 13 4 min read

Federal Reserve Survey: Small Businesses Took the Biggest Hit From Trump's 2025 Tariffs

A Federal Reserve of New York analysis of last year's Small Business Credit Survey found small businesses bore a disproportionate share of the pain from President Trump's 2025 tariffs, mostly by raising prices on customers. The people Trump promised to help got squeezed the hardest, and the paperwork mess from a Supreme Court ruling striking down some tariffs hasn't made it easier to get money back.

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us economy 7 Jul 10 4 min read

Who Is Actually Advising the Fed on AI and Jobs? A Layoff CEO, a VC, and a Stanford Economist on Leave at Anthropic.

The Federal Reserve has tapped Xbox CEO Asha Sharma, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, and Stanford economist Charles I. Jones to guide its AI-and-jobs task force. Sharma announced 3,200 Microsoft gaming layoffs days before the appointment. Meanwhile, a new Ramp and Revelio Labs study finds that companies most aggressively adopting AI actually grew headcount by 10.2% over two years, complicating the panic narrative without resolving it.

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us finance 7 Jul 9 4 min read

Warsh Names Marc Andreessen, Doug McMillon to Fed Task Forces as Rate Hike Odds Sit at 54%

Newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh released the full membership of his five monetary policy task forces on Thursday, pulling in tech investor Marc Andreessen, former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, and a roster of international economists. The announcement lands as the Fed's own June minutes show policymakers openly split on whether rates need to go up or stay put, with Kalshi prediction markets putting hike odds at 54% for 2026.

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us finance 8 Jul 9 3 min read

Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in Closest Senate Vote in Fed History

Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the next Federal Reserve chair, clearing the Senate in the narrowest confirmation vote ever recorded for that position. Warsh, a former Fed governor and Wall Street veteran, takes the helm at a moment of genuine macro complexity: 30-year Treasury yields have touched 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's 20-year bond yields are at levels not seen since 1997.

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us economy 6 Jul 8 4 min read

Federal Reserve Data: The Top 1% Now Holds 31.9% of U.S. Household Wealth, Up from 22.8% in 1989

Thirty-six years of Federal Reserve data show a steady upward shift in wealth concentration at the top and a corresponding slide for everyone below. The mechanism is straightforward: stocks and business equity outpaced real estate, and the top 1% holds far more of the former. The middle class — the 50th to 90th percentile band — lost the most ground of any group in proportional terms.

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us economy 6 Jul 6 4 min read

Wage Growth Peaked Four Years Ago. Two Analysts Say the Fed Should Cut in September.

A May CPI print of 4.2% year-over-year has the inflation hawks warning of 1970s-style stagflation and rate hikes ahead. Two market analysts — Peter Tchir of Academy Securities and Lance Roberts of RealInvestmentAdvice.com — argue the headline number is misleading, because wage growth, the variable that has reliably led CPI peaks since 1985, topped out roughly fifty months ago.

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us finance 6 Jul 3 4 min read

Gold Posts First Weekly Gain in Five Weeks as June Jobs Miss Cuts Fed Rate Hike Odds

Spot gold is up 1.4% this morning, July 3, trading around $4,182 an ounce and on track for a 2.3% weekly gain after Thursday's June payrolls report came in well below expectations. That weak jobs number trimmed the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike from 65% to 53.5%, giving gold some room to breathe. The metal is still down about 22% from its January all-time high above $5,300, and strategists say a lasting recovery requires more than one soft data print.

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us politics 9 Jun 29 4 min read

Supreme Court Overturns 90-Year Humphrey's Executor Precedent, Gives Presidents Power to Fire Agency Heads. Federal Reserve Is the Exception.

The Supreme Court today issued two landmark rulings on presidential removal power. A 6-3 majority wiped out the 1935 Humphrey's Executor precedent, letting presidents fire heads of independent agencies like the FTC at will. But a separate 5-4 ruling held that the Federal Reserve's board governors retain for-cause protection, drawing a clear constitutional line between the central bank and every other federal agency.

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us finance 6 Jun 29 4 min read

Fed Rate Cut by September Is Now a Real Possibility, Analyst Argues, Even as Iran Clashes and AI Costs Complicate the Picture

Markets have priced in a 75% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and nearly 1.25 hikes by December, but Academy Securities' Peter Tchir argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is quietly laying the groundwork for cuts instead. Two wild cards — renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges and growing doubts about the AI trade — could derail that path before it opens. The unresolved question is whether Warsh's hawkish public posture is the message or the misdirection.

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us finance 7 Jun 25 3 min read

Gold Stalls Near $3,990, Down 7.5% for the Year as Fed Rate Hike Bets and Fading War Premium Weigh on Prices

Gold is struggling to hold $4,000 and silver has shed nearly 20% since January 1, as the precious metals rally that defined 2025 runs out of fuel. A hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh, a strengthening dollar, and the apparent wind-down of the U.S.-Iran conflict have removed the main drivers that sent both metals to record highs last year.

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in finance 7 Jun 24 4 min read

India's Central Bank Governor Calls Rate Hike Talk Premature, Bond Yields Fall to Three-Month Lows

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Wednesday that discussing interest rate hikes is premature, pointing to the MPC's neutral stance as proof the bank isn't preparing to tighten. Indian bond yields dropped to their lowest since March as markets absorbed the signal, though monsoon deficits and fragile geopolitics keep the outlook genuinely uncertain.

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us economy 6 Jun 24 4 min read

Education Department Cuts Student Loan Interest Rate by 1% for Autopay Enrollees, Sets September 30 Deadline

The Department of Education announced a temporary 1% interest rate reduction for federal student loan borrowers who enroll in autopay by September 30, 2026. The move quadruples the previous 0.25% autopay discount and targets a repayment participation rate that has fallen from over 80% pre-pandemic to roughly 40% today. The policy is incremental, not transformational, and the underlying $1.7 trillion debt problem remains unresolved.

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us finance 6 Jun 23 4 min read

Nine of 18 Fed Officials Now Project a 2026 Rate Hike as Warsh's Market-First Framework Takes Hold

Since Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting wrapped up last Wednesday, the picture has sharpened: markets are getting less Fed guidance and more volatility. Nine of the 18 committee members penciled in a rate hike before year-end, the easing bias is gone, and Warsh himself submitted no forecast at all. The question investors are now working through is whether repricing on real data is healthier than the old hand-holding, or just more painful.

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us economy 7 Jun 22 4 min read

Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman for Nearly 19 Years, Dies at 100

Alan Greenspan died Monday at his Washington home from complications of Parkinson's disease, confirmed by his wife, NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell. He led the Fed from 1987 to 2006 under four presidents, earned the nickname 'the Maestro' for steering the 1990s boom, and spent his final years defending decisions that critics tied to the 2008 financial crisis.

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us finance 6 Jun 20 4 min read

Megacap Tech Gorges on Debt to Build AI Infrastructure, and That Makes the Fed's Next Move Their Problem Too

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are projected to spend a combined $750 billion on AI infrastructure this year, much of it funded by debt. That shift is pulling big tech squarely into the interest-rate universe that previously only worried smaller, unprofitable companies. The Fed's signal of a possible 2026 rate hike is no longer an abstraction for tech investors.

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us finance 6 Jun 20 4 min read

Kevin Warsh Delivered on His Promise. The Fed's First Statement Under His Watch Was 132 Words, Down from 341.

The new Fed chair has acted. His first press conference cut the Fed's policy statement by 61%, dropped all forward guidance, and sent the 10-year Treasury yield jumping six basis points in a single session. The debate now is whether this is sound monetary discipline or a volatility tax on every American borrower.

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us finance 7 Jun 17 4 min read

Fed's Dot Plot Now Projects a Rate Hike This Year. Warsh Refused to Submit His Own Forecast.

The FOMC held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, but the quarterly dot plot shifted sharply hawkish, with nine of 18 submitting officials now expecting at least one hike before year-end. Chair Kevin Warsh declined to submit a projection and stripped forward guidance from the policy statement entirely. Treasury markets moved fast: the 2-year yield climbed more than 16 basis points to 4.216% by the close of regular trading.

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us finance 6 Jun 16 4 min read

Wells Fargo Shares Down 9% Year to Date, a Year After the Fed Lifted Its Asset Cap

The Federal Reserve removed its $1.95 trillion asset cap on Wells Fargo in June 2025, and investors expected a breakout. Twelve months later, the stock is lagging the S&P 500 by roughly 19 percentage points, and Jim Cramer's CNBC Investing Club is trimming its position. The underperformance reflects both Wells-specific execution problems and broader pressure on bank stocks in 2026.

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us finance 7 Jun 15 4 min read

Iran Deal Drops Oil 5%, Pulls Treasury Yields Lower, and Cuts Odds of a Fed Rate Hike

Since the Iran conflict began in late February, energy-driven inflation had pushed 10-year Treasury yields nearly half a percentage point higher and killed expectations for a 2026 Fed rate cut. Sunday's preliminary peace agreement reversed some of that pressure overnight, but core inflation and a record equity issuance wave mean the rate picture for the rest of 2026 is still unresolved.

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id finance 7 Jun 11 4 min read

Bank Indonesia's Surprise Rate Hike Has Already Failed to Stop the Bond Selloff — Another Hike Is Now Expected June 18

Since Bank Indonesia's off-cycle 25-basis-point rate hike on June 9, Indonesian bonds have resumed their selloff: the 10-year yield climbed back to 7.47% on Thursday, June 11 — near its highest level since 2022. The brief Wednesday relief rally is over. Analysts at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas and BNY now expect another rate hike at the scheduled June 18 meeting if the rupiah fails to stabilize. The deeper problem isn't the interest rate — it's a crisis of confidence in Indonesia's economic governance.

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kr finance 6 Jun 8 4 min read

South Korean Kospi Crashes 8% as AI Trade Unwinds and Rate Hike Fears Return

South Korea's Kospi index plunged more than 8% in a single session, triggering an emergency trading halt as leveraged retail bets on Samsung and SK Hynix unwound fast. This is what concentrated AI hype looks like when it reverses. Regular investors — not Wall Street institutions — are holding the bag.

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us finance 6 Jun 8 4 min read

Global Markets Enter Week Two of Tech-Driven Rout: $1.8 Trillion Gone, Oil at $98, and Rate Hike Bets Mount

Since Broadcom's revenue miss triggered a cascade last week, the global tech selloff has extended into Monday, June 8, wiping $1.8 trillion from S&P 500 market cap and dragging Asian and European markets down hard. A blowout May jobs report killed hopes for Fed rate cuts — and now traders are pricing in hikes. Add oil spiking to $98 on fresh Middle East strikes, and the bull case that carried markets for two years is under serious stress.

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us economy 4 Jun 8 4 min read

Federal Reserve Study Published in Science: Remote Workers Are More Depressed, Anxious, and Lonely Than In-Office Peers

A peer-reviewed study published June 8, 2026 in the journal Science found remote workers experience higher rates of depression, anxiety, and mental health care visits than people in jobs that require in-person attendance. Workers are willingly trading up to 10% of their salary for the privilege — and it's costing them more than money. The answer isn't forced return-to-office mandates, but the data should end the pretense that remote work is a mental health free lunch.

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us finance 6 Jun 6 3 min read

May Jobs Report Triggers Wall Street's Worst Week in Over a Year — Fed Rate Hike Now Fully Priced In

A stronger-than-expected May jobs report crushed what had been a nine-week winning streak for the S&P 500, sending the Nasdaq 100 down roughly 5% and pushing rate-hike odds to 100% by year-end. The AI trade that drove the entire rally is now the epicenter of the blowup. Regular people with 401(k)s are watching months of gains evaporate in days.

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us economy 5 Jun 5 4 min read

Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 52% as Markets Absorb the May Jobs Report — and Kevin Warsh Faces a Civil War Inside the Fed

Since the May jobs report landed earlier today showing 172,000 new positions — a 4-sigma blowout above the 80,000-88,000 consensus — the story has shifted from the headline number to what comes next. Prediction markets now put the odds of a Fed rate HIKE this year at 52%, and Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair sworn in May 22, is already taking fire from his own colleagues. This isn't just about rates anymore. It's about who controls the Fed's direction.

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us economy 6 Jun 5 5 min read

Fed Rate Hike Odds Hit 52% as Alphabet Goes Hat-in-Hand for $85 Billion and Trump Complains About His Own Good Economy

Since this morning's May jobs blowout re-priced the entire rate outlook, three major storylines are colliding: prediction markets now see a 52% chance the Fed hikes before year-end, Alphabet is scrambling to raise $85 billion with its stock in a four-week slide, and Trump publicly complained that 'stocks should go up, not down' — apparently unaware that strong jobs data kills the rate-cut trade. The market isn't broken. Trump just doesn't understand how it works.

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us finance 7 Jun 5 4 min read

May Jobs Report Blows Up the Fed Rate-Cut Narrative — And Takes the Nasdaq Down With It

Since the Broadcom-triggered chip selloff began earlier this week, Friday's blowout May jobs report poured gasoline on the fire — the Nasdaq dropped more than 3%, its worst single-day loss since October 2025, and the S&P 500's nine-week winning streak is officially over. Strong labor data killed expectations of near-term Fed rate cuts, sending Treasury yields spiking and rotating money out of tech into defensive sectors. This wasn't a random market panic — it was a collision between overheated AI expectations and cold economic reality.

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us finance 5 Jun 4 4 min read

S&P 500 Snaps 9-Day Win Streak: Broadcom Miss, Iran Escalation, and a Rate Hike Scare Hit Markets Hard

Since the S&P 500 closed above 7,600 for the first time on Tuesday, Wednesday brought a sharp reality check — the index fell 0.74%, the Dow dropped 620 points, and after-hours carnage from Broadcom and CrowdStrike set up Thursday for more pain. The bigger story isn't one bad day. It's a convergence of three separate threats hitting the market simultaneously.

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us finance 6 Jun 3 4 min read

Bond Market Prices In Fed Rate Hike by December as Warsh Takes Helm and Iran War Inflates Everything

Since Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair on May 22, Treasury yields have surged and bond traders have flipped from betting on cuts to betting on hikes — all by December 2026. The Iran war is the accelerant. The S&P 500 is somehow still hitting records while the bond market screams inflation. Both things can't stay true forever.

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ir finance 6 Jun 1 4 min read

Iran Deal Stalls Into June: Oil Rebounds 3%, Hedge Funds Buy Stocks at Fastest Pace in Six Months, and the Fed Has a New Problem

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension is holding — barely — but fresh strikes and no final deal sent oil climbing over 3% to start June. Stocks shrugged it off anyway, powered by AI momentum and the fastest hedge fund buying in six months. Meanwhile, inflation data nobody is talking enough about just got worse.

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us finance 5 Jun 1 3 min read

Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 10% After Powell Press Conference — Markets Now Pricing Tightening Risk for 2026

The conversation has shifted from 'how many cuts' to 'could there actually be a hike.' Fed rate hike odds went from 0% to 10% in a single day after Powell's April 29 presser, driven by surging oil prices and a new Iran war premium baked into inflation expectations. This is a direct update to the ECB hike story — the pressure isn't just in Europe anymore.

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eu economy 5 May 31 4 min read

ECB Meeting Minutes Reveal April Hold Was a Close Call — Rate Hike Now Expected June 11

The ECB's internal minutes from the April 30 meeting show several policymakers were ready to hike right then and there. The energy shock from the Middle East war is proving stickier than the ECB expected, and markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point hike at the June 11 meeting. This is a significant shift from the 'wait and see' tone the ECB was projecting publicly.

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us finance 5 May 31 4 min read

Federal Reserve Governors Warn Stablecoins Could Reshape Banking, Monetary Policy — Congress Already Moved

The Federal Reserve is finally grappling with what stablecoins actually mean for the U.S. economy — and the picture is complicated. Two Fed governors gave major speeches laying out real risks to bank deposits and monetary policy transmission. Congress already passed the GENIUS Act, so ready or not, this is happening.

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us economy 5 May 29 4 min read

Powell Out, Warsh In, and the Fed Just Added Middle East Oil Shock to Its Rate-Hold Case

The April 29 FOMC meeting delivered more than a hold — it marked Jerome Powell's final press conference as Fed chair, confirmed Kevin Warsh's path to the top job, and revealed a new wildcard: rising crude oil prices tied to Middle East conflict. The Fed's messaging war is still hot, and now there's a DOJ investigation hanging over Powell's exit too.

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