Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve — interest-rate decisions, inflation, and monetary policy — reported without spin.

115 articles shownof 115 totalLast updated 2026-09-21 16:16 UTC
us finance 7 1d ago 4 min read

Oil's Pullback From $107.63 Peak Drags Treasury Yields Back Toward 4.93%, Even After the Fed's First Hike Since 2023

Since Brent crude spiked to $107.63 on September 10 amid the escalating US-Iran fight, oil has settled into a $101-$105 range and 10-year Treasury yields have eased to roughly 4.93%-4.95%, even after the Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. Wall Street got a one-day relief rally out of it, but the Dow still logged its third straight losing week and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is signaling nothing is settled.

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us finance 7 1d ago 4 min read

Bank of Japan's Ueda Splits 7-2 on Rate Hike to 1.25%, Satisfying Neither Tokyo Nor Washington

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, September 18, the highest since 1995, but two board members appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voted against it and the yen weakened anyway. Governor Kazuo Ueda is now caught between a prime minister who wants easy money and a US Treasury secretary who publicly claims he can predict the BOJ's moves.

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us finance 7 2d ago 4 min read

Federal Debt and an Iran Oil Shock Are Testing the Fed's Independence, Economists Warn

Rising federal debt is pulling the Federal Reserve and the Treasury into closer coordination. Bloomberg's analysis blames President Trump's handling of the Iran conflict for keeping energy costs elevated long enough to force central banks to abandon their old playbook on supply shocks. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target all decade, Treasury yields are surging, and Washington keeps spending anyway.

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us finance 7 2d ago 4 min read

Howard Marks Endorses Fed Chair Warsh's Hands-Off Approach as Critics Say the Rate Hike Breaks the Greenspan Playbook

Oaktree's Howard Marks told Bloomberg This Weekend he wants a less activist Federal Reserve, backing Chair Kevin Warsh's pullback from forward guidance. Not everyone agrees with the September 16 rate hike that came with it: RealClearMarkets contributor Peter Navarro says Warsh just repeated a mistake Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke both avoided by hiking into an oil price shock.

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us finance 7 2d ago 4 min read

Foreign Investors Bought $1.75 Trillion in US Assets Even as the 10-Year Yield Hit 5% and the Fed Resumed Rate Hikes

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress on September 15 that recent bond auctions rank among the strongest in 20 years, and new Treasury data shows foreign purchases of US stocks and bonds climbing sharply since 2024. But the Fed's surprise rate hike on September 16, a 10-year yield at its highest since 2007, and pointed criticism from Maxine Waters show the debt and inflation math still worries plenty of people who aren't buying the victory lap.

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us economy 7 2d ago 3 min read

Tariffs, Fuel Costs and a Fed Rate Hike Are Squeezing American Manufacturers

A small saw manufacturer in Iowa watched a $42 bracket jump to $87 this summer, and he's not alone. Tariffs, Iran-war fuel spikes and a September 16 Fed rate hike are hitting manufacturers, truckers and retailers at the same time. Some of this is Trump's trade policy working exactly as designed to cost money short-term, and pretending otherwise doesn't help anyone running a real business.

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us finance 7 3d ago 4 min read

Senate Republicans Defend Fed Rate Hike and Supreme Court Ballot Ruling Against Trump's Attacks

Since the Fed's quarter-point rate hike Wednesday, September 16, President Trump has lashed out at both the central bank and the Supreme Court in the same week, and Senate Republicans are publicly breaking with him on both. GOP senators including John Cornyn, John Kennedy, Mike Rounds and John Thune say the Fed followed its mandate and the Court correctly blocked a last-minute mail-ballot screening plan.

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jp finance 7 4d ago 4 min read

Bank of Japan's 1.25% Rate Hike Passes 7-2, Two Dissents Shift Market Expectations on Future Tightening

The Bank of Japan's Friday hike to a 31-year high of 1.25% cleared with two board members voting no, and traders read that split as a sign Governor Kazuo Ueda won't tighten as fast as markets had priced in. The yen kept sliding toward 157 per dollar, Tokyo stocks jumped past 65,000, and Japan's record intervention spending from August is back in focus.

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us finance 7 4d ago 5 min read

Yen Falls Past 156 to the Dollar Amid Fed Rate Hike and Narrowing Yield Gap

The yen touched a seven-month high near 152 to the dollar in recent weeks on Bank of Japan rate-hike bets, prompting traders to abandon the yen carry trade for the Swiss franc and Swedish krona. Then the Federal Reserve raised rates with a hawkish outlook on Thursday, September 17, and sent the yen back past 156. The carry trade isn't dead, it's just looking for a new home, and the fight over whether the dollar or the yen holds the upper hand is far from settled.

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us finance 7 5d ago 4 min read

Bond Yields Ease Slightly After Fed's Rate Hike, But Warsh Signals More Increases Are Coming

A day after the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield finally cooled off after eight straight days of gains. The relief may be short-lived: the Fed's own rate projections point to another hike before year's end, and the deeper fight over who controls the bond market, the Fed or the Treasury, isn't settled.

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us finance 7 5d ago 4 min read

Fed Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023, Trump Demands Rates 'Should Be 1%, or Less'

The Federal Reserve unanimously hiked its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, citing inflation stuck at 3.4% and driven partly by energy prices tied to the Iran war. Trump immediately demanded a cut to 1% or below, setting up his first real clash with Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair he handpicked just four months ago.

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us finance 9 6d ago 4 min read

Fed Set to Announce First Rate Hike Since 2023 This Afternoon as Iran War Keeps Inflation Hot

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting today with a decision due at 2 p.m. ET, and traders are pricing in a 92-95% chance of a quarter-point hike, the first since 2023. Inflation is stuck above target because of Middle East oil disruptions, and the White House says it will respect Chair Kevin Warsh's call even though NEC Director Kevin Hassett admits he'd vote against a hike himself.

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us economy 8 6d ago 4 min read

Retail Sales Jump 1.2% in August, Beating Forecasts as Fed Weighs First Rate Hike Since 2023

US retail sales rose 1.2% in August, nearly double what economists forecast, with a 3.1% jump in gas station receipts reflecting higher pump prices rather than increased volume. The strong number lands hours before the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate hike since 2023, with markets already pricing in two more by year's end.

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ir economy 9 6d ago 5 min read

Iran Warns of Retaliation, Oil Tops $108, and the Fed Weighs a Rate Hike Today: A Rough Week for the Global Economy

Iran's Foreign Ministry has accused the U.S. and Israel of disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after strikes on oil tankers, and oil has jumped to four-month highs as a result. That's landing the same week the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates for the first time in three years, while the Bank for International Settlements warns the AI stock rally is cracking and debt keeps piling up in Washington.

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us economy 8 Sep 14 4 min read

US Inflation Stuck at 3.4% as Diesel Hits Record $6.23 a Gallon and the Fed Weighs a Rate Hike This Week

August's Consumer Price Index came in flat at 3.4% annual inflation, but diesel just hit an all-time high of $6.23 a gallon as the Iran war disrupts oil shipping. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday with several regional presidents openly split on whether one rate hike will even be enough.

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us economy 8 Sep 14 4 min read

Trump Tells Daily Signal He Won't Fight Kevin Warsh on a Rate Hike as August Jobs Data Complicates the Case for Cuts

Since Kevin Warsh's August 28 Jackson Hole speech signaled the Fed might raise rates instead of cutting them, a stronger-than-expected August jobs report has stripped away the dovish argument Trump was counting on. Trump told the Daily Signal on Monday he won't pressure Warsh to back off, even as he keeps insisting rates are too high, with the Fed's decision due Wednesday.

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us finance 7 Sep 9 4 min read

Goldman Sachs: AI Spending, Not the Fed, Is Now Driving U.S. Borrowing Costs

Goldman Sachs says AI capital spending has become a bigger force behind interest rates than the Federal Reserve itself, as hyperscalers flood bond markets with debt and Treasury floods markets with T-bills to fund the buildout. The Fed's own bill holdings are up 130% this year, 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2001, and Goldman's economists are openly warning AI could be starving other sectors of capital.

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us finance 6 Sep 8 5 min read

Asian Banks Rush Record Dollar Bond Sales Ahead of the Fed's September 16 Decision

RBL Bank, Bangkok Bank and Capri Global Capital are among a wave of Asian lenders locking in dollar funding before the Federal Reserve's next move, part of what Bloomberg Markets calls record issuance for the region. At the same time, Washington's own long-term borrowing costs hit a 19-year high in August, forcing the U.S. Treasury to double its bond buybacks just to keep yields from spiraling further.

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jp finance 7 Sep 7 4 min read

Yen Jumps to ¥154.06, Erasing Entire July Intervention Rally as BOJ Rate Hike Bets Build

The yen strengthened as much as 1.4% to ¥154.06 per dollar Monday, its best level since February and stronger than the peak Japan and the US bought their way to on July 31. Traders are betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike at its September 17-18 meeting and speculating Japan's giant pension fund could shift assets toward yen. Tokyo has now spent roughly $170 billion defending the currency this year, and it's still not clear the strategy works without the BOJ actually raising rates.

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au energy 6 Sep 7 4 min read

Australia's Central Bank Says the AI Data Center Boom Is Now a Factor in Its Interest Rate Decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia has named the AI data center construction wave as an upside risk to inflation, right alongside oil prices and Middle East conflict spillover. Estimates put the investment pipeline at up to A$155 billion over the next decade, competing with housing and defense for the same workers, materials, and power. Americans are seeing a smaller version of the same squeeze show up on their electric bills.

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us politics 8 Sep 4 4 min read

Trump Threatens to Halt Trade With Deficit Countries Unless the Fed Cuts Rates

President Trump used Friday's strong August jobs report to renew his demand that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cut interest rates, this time threatening to cut off trade entirely with countries that run surpluses against the U.S. if the Fed doesn't comply. It's a real escalation from a president who days earlier said he'd let his own appointee use his own judgment, and it lands right as the Fed's own governors are signaling a possible hike, not a cut, at the September meeting.

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gb finance 6 Sep 3 3 min read

BoE's Huw Pill Pushes for Immediate Rate Hike as UK Gilt Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill told an Edinburgh audience the MPC should stop waiting and raise rates now, arguing a prompt quarter-point move beats a bigger catch-up hike later. He's still in the minority after being outvoted 6-3 in July, and markets aren't betting on him winning next time either.

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us finance 9 Aug 31 4 min read

Fed Chief Kevin Warsh Talks Tough on Inflation, Rate Hike Odds Jump Back Above 50%

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell, told the Jackson Hole gathering on Friday, August 28, that inflation hasn't meaningfully improved in 65 straight months of running above trend. Markets responded by pushing September rate hike odds from roughly one-in-three back above 50%, a swing that's already hitting the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah and other emerging-market currencies. The next real test comes with August's jobs report on September 4 and the Fed's meeting September 15-16.

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us finance 7 Aug 29 4 min read

Fed Chair Warsh Signals Openness to a September Rate Hike, Mortgage Rates Hold Near 6.6%

Mortgage rates have drifted back up toward the year's highs, according to Zillow, Freddie Mac and The Mortgage Reports data. Meanwhile Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Jackson Hole conference on Friday that a September rate hike is on the table if inflation doesn't cool, and Treasury yields barely budged in response, meaning mortgage rates may not follow the Fed's lead either way.

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us finance 7 Aug 26 4 min read

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Stuck at 3.7% in July, Rate Hike Odds Climb

Core PCE inflation held at 3.3% and headline PCE at 3.7% in July, both hotter than analysts expected, according to the Commerce Department. Markets now put roughly 40% odds on a Fed rate hike in September, up from under 33% a week earlier. Five years after inflation blew past the Fed's 2% target, Americans are still paying the price and the central bank still can't agree on what to do about it.

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us finance 8 Aug 26 4 min read

Fed Signals Rate Hike Still Possible, ECB Set to Hike in September as Inflation Refuses to Quit

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting show officials openly discussing a rate hike if inflation doesn't cool, with three regional bank presidents already pushing for one. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is on track to raise rates in September to 2.50%, with ECB board member Isabel Schnabel telling Bloomberg more tightening is needed. Two years after the Fed and ECB started cutting rates, both are now flirting with raising them again, and neither has hit its 2% inflation target.

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us finance 8 Aug 25 4 min read

Off-Balance-Sheet AI Debt Hits $3 Trillion, Nearly Double a July Estimate, as Even the Fed Can't Agree on the Risk

A Wall Street Journal analysis puts nine tech giants' off-balance-sheet AI obligations at roughly $3 trillion, almost double a $1.65 trillion estimate from six weeks earlier. Fed officials from Williams to Daly to Schmid are publicly split on whether this is manageable leverage among profitable companies or the early stage of a 2008-style credit problem, and 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest levels since 2007 suggest bond markets are starting to price in the strain.

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us finance 8 Aug 24 4 min read

National Debt Hits $40 Trillion as the Fed Sits on Half the 10-to-15-Year Treasury Market

The federal debt crossed $40 trillion this month, hitting a threshold the Congressional Budget Office once projected wouldn't arrive until 2028. At the same time, the Federal Reserve owns more than half of all Treasury bonds maturing 10 to 15 years out, a legacy of pandemic-era bond buying that's now distorting the market Washington relies on to borrow.

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us finance 4 Aug 23 3 min read

IRS Holds Interest Rate at 7 Percent for Q4 2026, Rolls Out New Automatic Penalty Relief

The IRS announced on Aug. 21 that interest rates on tax overpayments and underpayments will stay at 7% for individuals starting Oct. 1, unchanged from the third quarter. The agency also confirmed a new Automatic Exemption from Penalty program that will replace the old First Time Abate system for taxpayers with clean three-year filing records.

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us finance 6 Aug 23 3 min read

Ethereum Breaks Its 2021 Record After Powell Hints at a September Rate Cut

Ether cleared its November 2021 high on August 22, jumping nearly 15% in 24 hours on Coinbase after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible September rate cut at Jackson Hole. Bitcoin gained a comparatively modest 4% in the same window, and the buyer base this time looks less retail-driven than it did four years ago.

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us finance 5 Aug 21 4 min read

Lacy Hunt, a 40-Year Deflation Bull, Says the Fed Has Been Quietly Printing Money Since December

Hoisington Investment Management's Lacy Hunt says the Fed bought roughly $290 billion in Treasury bills between mid-December 2025 and June 30, 2026, calling it stealth quantitative easing dressed up as a restrictive policy stance. He's slashed his firm's bond duration from 21 years to under one and now expects long-run inflation of 3.5% to 4.5%, but not everyone agrees the debt and rate picture is actually abnormal.

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ir finance 6 Aug 17 1 min read Updated

Gold Nears $4,400 as Weak Retail Sales Data Sinks Rate Hike Odds

July retail sales fell 0.6%, the biggest monthly drop since May 2025, and gold jumped near $4,400 an ounce on bets the Fed stays put in September. Treasury yields rose anyway, and Iran's refusal to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz is adding a geopolitical premium the Fed can't control.

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jp finance 6 Aug 13 4 min read

Japan's Wholesale Prices Stay Hot, Setting Up September Rate Hike as Yen Defense Costs $200 Billion a Round

Japan's producer prices rose 7.2% in July, keeping pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates at its September 17-18 meeting. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs says Tokyo has enough dollar reserves for a couple more rounds of yen intervention like July's, but Goldman's own strategist admits the fix doesn't last.

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us finance 6 Aug 12 4 min read

July CPI Report Set for Wednesday: Economists Expect Mild Reading That Could Keep the Fed on Hold

Wednesday's July CPI report is expected to show just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core monthly inflation, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. A tame number would give Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the FOMC more room to sit on rates through the rest of the year, though the committee is already split on what comes next.

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us finance 7 Aug 11 4 min read

Wednesday's July CPI Report Could Decide Whether the Fed Hikes Rates in September

Wednesday's inflation report is a coin-flip moment for the Federal Reserve, which is currently split 50/50 on whether to raise rates next month after a weak July jobs report and months of tariff-driven price pressure. Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, so any upside surprise on core inflation could hit stocks hard.

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us economy 8 Aug 4 4 min read

Bessent Wants the Fed to Bankroll Japan's Yen Defense. That's a Bigger Ask Than the Intervention Itself.

Since Friday's coordinated dollar sales to prop up the yen, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has moved on to a bigger request: get the Federal Reserve to expand its FIMA lending facility so Japan can defend its currency without dumping Treasuries. That puts new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in a spot, deciding how far an independent central bank should go in propping up American financial diplomacy.

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us economy 6 Aug 2 4 min read

New Federal Loan Caps Push States to Offer Their Own Student Loans, With Interest Rates Up to 10.5%

Congress capped federal grad school borrowing starting July 1 under Trump's tax and spending law, and states like Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Minnesota are stepping in with their own loan programs. These state loans carry the government's name but function like private credit, with rates that can beat or badly trail federal loans depending on the borrower's credit.

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us finance 4 Aug 1 3 min read

Wall Street's Bond Managers Are Betting on Short-Term Treasurys, Not the Fed Cutting Rates

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this past week, and at least one major asset manager, Allspring Global Investments, says the smart money should stop chasing long-term bonds and focus on short-term Treasurys instead. The reasoning: the market is now pricing in the possibility of Fed hikes, not cuts, over the next couple of years.

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us economy 7 Aug 1 3 min read

10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.7%, Higher Than When Trump Took Office. Rate Cut Promise Nowhere in Sight

Trump promised Fed rate cuts would be 'Rocket Fuel' for the economy. Instead, borrowing costs are higher than when he took office, the government spent $827 billion servicing debt this fiscal year, and his own new Fed chair Kevin Warsh won't say how he'll fix inflation. The tariffs, AI data-center borrowing binge, and Iran war are all pushing rates the wrong direction.

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us economy 3 Jul 28 4 min read

New UK Education Secretary Lucy Powell Calls Student Loan Interest Rates 'Egregious,' Promises Review But No Fixes Yet

Lucy Powell, Labour's new education secretary, says fixing England's student loan repayment system is at the top of her priority list and repeats her past claim that Plan 2 interest rates are 'egregious.' She won't commit to any specific change, and the freeze on the repayment threshold that Rachel Reeves defended last year is still in place.

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us tech 8 Jul 21 4 min read

The Fed Still Doesn't Have Access to Anthropic's Mythos AI Model, Chairman Warsh Tells Senate

Since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell called banks in for an emergency briefing on Anthropic's Mythos model back in April, the Federal Reserve itself has been locked out of the tool it wants banks patched against. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Senate last week he's still asking for access, months later. The agency in charge of supervising the banking system's cybersecurity can't test the very AI model driving the crisis.

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us finance 5 Jul 21 3 min read

DoubleLine Says High Bond Yields Are Doing the Fed's Job for It, Bets on Zero Rate Hikes in 2026

DoubleLine Capital is loading up on shorter-dated Treasuries, betting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh won't need to hike or cut rates for the rest of 2026 because elevated bond yields are already squeezing the economy. Bank of America disagrees and still expects three hikes before year-end. The federal funds rate has sat at 3.50%-3.75% since Warsh took over in May.

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us economy 7 Jul 16 3 min read

Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 4% After June PPI Posts Its Biggest Drop Since April 2025

Traders have all but erased bets on a Fed rate hike this month after Wednesday's PPI report showed producer prices fell 0.3% in June, the sharpest monthly decline since April 2025. The July hike probability, which was already low, has dropped to just 4%, and September odds fell from 59% to 41.5% in 24 hours.

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us economy 8 Jul 14 4 min read

Warsh Tells House Panel the Fed Has 'No Tolerance' for Inflation, Even as June CPI Cools to 3.5%

Kevin Warsh testified before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday that June's cooler inflation reading doesn't mean the fight is over, and he's rolling out five internal task forces to overhaul how the Fed operates. He heads to the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday, where Chairman Tim Scott says he wants Warsh talking about AI data centers, not just interest rates.

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us economy 8 Jul 14 4 min read

June CPI Comes in Cooler Than Expected at 3.5%, But Warsh Tells Congress the Fed Isn't Backing Off Inflation Fight

June inflation dropped to 3.5% annually, beating forecasts of 3.8%, largely because gas and fuel oil prices fell over 9% during a brief Iran ceasefire. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh used his first congressional testimony to promise inflation will be a 'thing of the past' while leaning hard on AI investment as a growth story. Bond traders still see a real shot at a rate hike, not a cut, at the Fed's July 28-29 meeting.

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us economy 7 Jul 13 4 min read

Federal Reserve Survey: Small Businesses Took the Biggest Hit From Trump's 2025 Tariffs

A Federal Reserve of New York analysis of last year's Small Business Credit Survey found small businesses bore a disproportionate share of the pain from President Trump's 2025 tariffs, mostly by raising prices on customers. The people Trump promised to help got squeezed the hardest, and the paperwork mess from a Supreme Court ruling striking down some tariffs hasn't made it easier to get money back.

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us economy 7 Jul 10 4 min read

Who Is Actually Advising the Fed on AI and Jobs? A Layoff CEO, a VC, and a Stanford Economist on Leave at Anthropic.

The Federal Reserve has tapped Xbox CEO Asha Sharma, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, and Stanford economist Charles I. Jones to guide its AI-and-jobs task force. Sharma announced 3,200 Microsoft gaming layoffs days before the appointment. Meanwhile, a new Ramp and Revelio Labs study finds that companies most aggressively adopting AI actually grew headcount by 10.2% over two years, complicating the panic narrative without resolving it.

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us finance 7 Jul 9 4 min read

Warsh Names Marc Andreessen, Doug McMillon to Fed Task Forces as Rate Hike Odds Sit at 54%

Newly confirmed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh released the full membership of his five monetary policy task forces on Thursday, pulling in tech investor Marc Andreessen, former Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, and a roster of international economists. The announcement lands as the Fed's own June minutes show policymakers openly split on whether rates need to go up or stay put, with Kalshi prediction markets putting hike odds at 54% for 2026.

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us finance 8 Jul 9 3 min read

Kevin Warsh Confirmed as Federal Reserve Chair in Closest Senate Vote in Fed History

Kevin Warsh has been confirmed as the next Federal Reserve chair, clearing the Senate in the narrowest confirmation vote ever recorded for that position. Warsh, a former Fed governor and Wall Street veteran, takes the helm at a moment of genuine macro complexity: 30-year Treasury yields have touched 5% for the first time since 2007, and Japan's 20-year bond yields are at levels not seen since 1997.

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us economy 6 Jul 8 4 min read

Federal Reserve Data: The Top 1% Now Holds 31.9% of U.S. Household Wealth, Up from 22.8% in 1989

Thirty-six years of Federal Reserve data show a steady upward shift in wealth concentration at the top and a corresponding slide for everyone below. The mechanism is straightforward: stocks and business equity outpaced real estate, and the top 1% holds far more of the former. The middle class — the 50th to 90th percentile band — lost the most ground of any group in proportional terms.

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us economy 6 Jul 6 4 min read

Wage Growth Peaked Four Years Ago. Two Analysts Say the Fed Should Cut in September.

A May CPI print of 4.2% year-over-year has the inflation hawks warning of 1970s-style stagflation and rate hikes ahead. Two market analysts — Peter Tchir of Academy Securities and Lance Roberts of RealInvestmentAdvice.com — argue the headline number is misleading, because wage growth, the variable that has reliably led CPI peaks since 1985, topped out roughly fifty months ago.

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us finance 6 Jul 3 4 min read

Gold Posts First Weekly Gain in Five Weeks as June Jobs Miss Cuts Fed Rate Hike Odds

Spot gold is up 1.4% this morning, July 3, trading around $4,182 an ounce and on track for a 2.3% weekly gain after Thursday's June payrolls report came in well below expectations. That weak jobs number trimmed the market-implied probability of a September Fed rate hike from 65% to 53.5%, giving gold some room to breathe. The metal is still down about 22% from its January all-time high above $5,300, and strategists say a lasting recovery requires more than one soft data print.

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us politics 9 Jun 29 4 min read

Supreme Court Overturns 90-Year Humphrey's Executor Precedent, Gives Presidents Power to Fire Agency Heads. Federal Reserve Is the Exception.

The Supreme Court today issued two landmark rulings on presidential removal power. A 6-3 majority wiped out the 1935 Humphrey's Executor precedent, letting presidents fire heads of independent agencies like the FTC at will. But a separate 5-4 ruling held that the Federal Reserve's board governors retain for-cause protection, drawing a clear constitutional line between the central bank and every other federal agency.

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us finance 6 Jun 29 4 min read

Fed Rate Cut by September Is Now a Real Possibility, Analyst Argues, Even as Iran Clashes and AI Costs Complicate the Picture

Markets have priced in a 75% chance of a Fed rate hike in September and nearly 1.25 hikes by December, but Academy Securities' Peter Tchir argues that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is quietly laying the groundwork for cuts instead. Two wild cards — renewed U.S.-Iran exchanges and growing doubts about the AI trade — could derail that path before it opens. The unresolved question is whether Warsh's hawkish public posture is the message or the misdirection.

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us finance 7 Jun 25 3 min read

Gold Stalls Near $3,990, Down 7.5% for the Year as Fed Rate Hike Bets and Fading War Premium Weigh on Prices

Gold is struggling to hold $4,000 and silver has shed nearly 20% since January 1, as the precious metals rally that defined 2025 runs out of fuel. A hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh, a strengthening dollar, and the apparent wind-down of the U.S.-Iran conflict have removed the main drivers that sent both metals to record highs last year.

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in finance 7 Jun 24 4 min read

India's Central Bank Governor Calls Rate Hike Talk Premature, Bond Yields Fall to Three-Month Lows

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said Wednesday that discussing interest rate hikes is premature, pointing to the MPC's neutral stance as proof the bank isn't preparing to tighten. Indian bond yields dropped to their lowest since March as markets absorbed the signal, though monsoon deficits and fragile geopolitics keep the outlook genuinely uncertain.

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us economy 6 Jun 24 4 min read

Education Department Cuts Student Loan Interest Rate by 1% for Autopay Enrollees, Sets September 30 Deadline

The Department of Education announced a temporary 1% interest rate reduction for federal student loan borrowers who enroll in autopay by September 30, 2026. The move quadruples the previous 0.25% autopay discount and targets a repayment participation rate that has fallen from over 80% pre-pandemic to roughly 40% today. The policy is incremental, not transformational, and the underlying $1.7 trillion debt problem remains unresolved.

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us finance 6 Jun 23 4 min read

Nine of 18 Fed Officials Now Project a 2026 Rate Hike as Warsh's Market-First Framework Takes Hold

Since Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting wrapped up last Wednesday, the picture has sharpened: markets are getting less Fed guidance and more volatility. Nine of the 18 committee members penciled in a rate hike before year-end, the easing bias is gone, and Warsh himself submitted no forecast at all. The question investors are now working through is whether repricing on real data is healthier than the old hand-holding, or just more painful.

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us economy 7 Jun 22 4 min read

Alan Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman for Nearly 19 Years, Dies at 100

Alan Greenspan died Monday at his Washington home from complications of Parkinson's disease, confirmed by his wife, NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell. He led the Fed from 1987 to 2006 under four presidents, earned the nickname 'the Maestro' for steering the 1990s boom, and spent his final years defending decisions that critics tied to the 2008 financial crisis.

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us finance 6 Jun 20 4 min read

Megacap Tech Gorges on Debt to Build AI Infrastructure, and That Makes the Fed's Next Move Their Problem Too

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are projected to spend a combined $750 billion on AI infrastructure this year, much of it funded by debt. That shift is pulling big tech squarely into the interest-rate universe that previously only worried smaller, unprofitable companies. The Fed's signal of a possible 2026 rate hike is no longer an abstraction for tech investors.

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