Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve news covering interest rate decisions, FOMC meetings, minutes and projections, and statements by the chair and other officials. Stories explain the effect on mortgages, loans, savings and markets. Nothing on this page is financial advice.Read moreShow lessFAQ

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132 articles shownof 132 totalLast updated 2026-11-06 19:14 UTC

economy 7 3h ago 5 min read

Strong October Jobs Data Lifts Odds of a December Fed Rate Hike to About 78% and Pushes the 10-Year Yield Toward 4.87%

Since the October jobs report landed this morning, Nov. 6, the argument has shifted to the Fed. Markets were pricing about a 78% chance of a December quarter-point hike, up from about 67% on Thursday, and Treasury yields rose, threatening a three-week slide in mortgage rates. The AI-driven stock sell-off had cooled hike bets earlier in the week, and one strong payroll number put them back in focus.

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6 sources

economy 8 2d ago 4 min read

Democrats Win Senate, Leaving Trump No Easy Path to Add Allies to the Fed Board

Democrats won control of the Senate in Tuesday's midterms, giving them the confirmation power over Federal Reserve governors and likely the Banking Committee gavel, which Elizabeth Warren is expected to hold. The Fed board has no vacancies today, so the first test is Trump's effort to fire Governor Lisa Cook. Her lawyers say she cannot attend the White House's Nov. 5 hearing and could appear no earlier than after the Fed's Dec. 8-9 meeting.

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economy 7 3d ago 3 min read

Bundesbank's Nagel Says December ECB Rate Hike Is 'Very Likely Necessary'

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said Tuesday, Nov. 3, that a December rate hike is very likely necessary, days after the ECB held its deposit rate at 2.5%. The ECB sees inflation topping 4% in coming months, and a December move would be its third hike this year.

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finance 7 Oct 29 4 min read

Gold Slips Toward $4,000 After Fed Hold as Markets Still Price a December Rate Hike

Since the Fed held at 3.75%-4% on Oct. 28 in a 10-2 vote, spot gold has fallen about 0.7% to 1% to roughly $4,038-$4,044 an ounce. Markets still put the odds of a December hike near 78%, and Thursday's inflation data may decide whether the $4,000 level holds.

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economy 5 Oct 26 4 min read

Phoenix Suburb Weighs Water Rate Hike That Could Take a $130 Monthly Bill Past $500

A resident of a fast-growing Phoenix suburb says his water bill could climb from $130 to more than $500 a month under a proposed increase, according to a Washington Post report published Oct. 25. The fight is over who pays for scarcity: the households that use the water, or everyone through slower, cheaper rate changes.

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economy 6 Oct 16 4 min read

Bailey Says UK Price Pressures Are 'Quite Subdued' So Far as Economists Forecast a November Rate Hike

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said today, Oct. 16, that second-round inflation effects from the energy shock have been limited so far, but it is too early to be sure. A Reuters poll of 63 economists finds 54 expect the Bank to raise rates to 4.0% in November. Next week's inflation data will show whether energy costs are reaching the wider economy.

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7 sources

economy 8 Oct 14 4 min read

Economists Expect September CPI at 3.6% as Gas Hits $4.34 and Fed Weighs Another Rate Hike

The September consumer price index is due Wednesday morning, Oct. 14, and economists polled by Dow Jones expect annual inflation to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%. Gasoline is averaging $4.34 a gallon against $3.08 a year ago, and New York Fed President John Williams says one more hike this year may be appropriate. The reading will shape pricing for the Fed's next move ahead of Chair Kevin Warsh's speech Friday.

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economy 7 Oct 13 4 min read

Boston Fed's Collins Expects Another Rate Hike Before Year-End, Says Timing Depends on Data

Boston Fed President Susan Collins said Tuesday, Oct. 13, that she expects it will be appropriate to raise rates further before the end of 2026, but gave no date. Other Fed officials have pointed to December rather than the Oct. 27-28 meeting, and Wednesday's CPI report is the next test.

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economy 7 Oct 13 4 min read

Fed's Hammack Says Economy Needs More Restriction, Keeps 'Open Mind' on October Rate Hike

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, a 2026 voter on rate policy, said Monday that policy needs to be more restrictive and that small, quick moves beat waiting. She has not committed to a hike at the Oct. 27-28 meeting, where markets expect the Fed to hold, but traders put the odds of a December hike near 88%.

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7 sources

economy 7 Oct 9 4 min read

Beijing Rolls Out Homebuyer Subsidy, Rate Cut and Bank Cash Injection; Societe Generale Sees 4.5% Growth

Since Sept. 29, Beijing has launched its first interest subsidy for first-time homebuyers, cut a key policy-bank lending rate and moved to inject bond-funded capital into state banks. Analysts at Societe Generale expect the package to get China to the low end of its growth target, around 4.5%, without fixing weak household demand. Whether Chinese families and businesses will borrow and spend is the open question.

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6 sources

finance 7 Oct 8 3 min read

Fed Minutes: Most Officials See Another Rate Hike by Year End, No Date Set

Minutes of the Sept. 15-16 meeting, released today, show all participants backed the quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4.00% and most expect another increase by year end. They give no timing, and softer August inflation data have cooled expectations for a move at the Oct. 28 meeting. The next decisions land Oct. 28 and Dec. 9.

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finance 7 Oct 6 4 min read

World's Top 50 Mining Companies Lose $264 Billion in September Amid Bond Selloff and Fed Rate Hike

The world's 50 most valuable mining companies shed $264 billion in market value in September 2026, the second-worst month on record, as bond yields spiked and the Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023. Gold miners got hit hardest, copper producers dealt with a deadly accident and a strike vote at the world's biggest copper mine, and Wall Street's trading desks somehow profited from the same chaos that crushed everyone else.

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7 sources

economy 8 Oct 5 4 min read

Fed's September Rate Hike Collides With a Weak Jobs Report, and Markets Flip to Expecting a Hold

Kevin Warsh's Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point in September, the first hike in three years, framing it as removing 'a dose of accommodation' rather than tightening. A weak September jobs report showing just 29,000 new jobs has since flipped futures markets from pricing in another hike to pricing in a hold at the Fed's next meeting, while Apollo's chief economist warns the whole approach could backfire on renters.

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finance 7 Oct 5 4 min read

RBI Set to Deliver First Rate Hike Since 2023 as India's Inflation Runs Hot

India's Monetary Policy Committee meets October 5-7, with economists and swap markets betting heavily on a 25-basis-point hike to 5.50%, the first increase since February 2023. Inflation has broken above the RBI's 4% target for three straight months, growth is running hotter than forecast, and the Fed and Bank of Japan have already moved first. This is sound-money discipline doing its job, even if it means pricier loans.

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7 sources

finance 7 Oct 2 4 min read

Nasdaq Sets Record as Weak September Jobs Report Cuts Odds of Another Fed Rate Hike

The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below forecasts, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Wall Street cheered the bad news anyway because it lowers the odds the Fed hikes rates again this month, sending the Nasdaq to a fresh record even as the jobs number itself says the labor market is cooling fast.

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finance 5 Oct 1 4 min read

Swiss National Bank Official Warns Stablecoins Could Weaken Its Grip on Interest Rates

SNB Governing Board member Petra Tschudin told a Zurich audience on September 30 that large stablecoins operating outside the traditional banking system could blunt the central bank's control over borrowing costs. Her fix is more regulation, which conveniently keeps the SNB in charge of the money supply.

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finance 8 Sep 25 4 min read

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.2%, Highest Since 2007, as Fed Weighs Another Rate Hike

The 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% this week and hit 5.2% by Friday, September 25, the highest since 2007, dragging mortgage rates and stock valuations down with it. Fed officials are signaling another rate hike could come in October, and economists disagree on whether the bond market is punishing government debt or just repricing Fed policy expectations.

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7 sources

finance 7 Sep 21 4 min read

Oil's Pullback From $107.63 Peak Drags Treasury Yields Back Toward 4.93%, Even After the Fed's First Hike Since 2023

Since Brent crude spiked to $107.63 on September 10 amid the escalating US-Iran fight, oil has settled into a $101-$105 range and 10-year Treasury yields have eased to roughly 4.93%-4.95%, even after the Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. Wall Street got a one-day relief rally out of it, but the Dow still logged its third straight losing week and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is signaling nothing is settled.

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finance 7 Sep 21 4 min read

Bank of Japan's Ueda Splits 7-2 on Rate Hike to 1.25%, Satisfying Neither Tokyo Nor Washington

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, September 18, the highest since 1995, but two board members appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi voted against it and the yen weakened anyway. Governor Kazuo Ueda is now caught between a prime minister who wants easy money and a US Treasury secretary who publicly claims he can predict the BOJ's moves.

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finance 7 Sep 20 4 min read

Federal Debt and an Iran Oil Shock Are Testing the Fed's Independence, Economists Warn

Rising federal debt is pulling the Federal Reserve and the Treasury into closer coordination. Bloomberg's analysis blames President Trump's handling of the Iran conflict for keeping energy costs elevated long enough to force central banks to abandon their old playbook on supply shocks. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target all decade, Treasury yields are surging, and Washington keeps spending anyway.

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finance 7 Sep 20 4 min read

Howard Marks Endorses Fed Chair Warsh's Hands-Off Approach as Critics Say the Rate Hike Breaks the Greenspan Playbook

Oaktree's Howard Marks told Bloomberg This Weekend he wants a less activist Federal Reserve, backing Chair Kevin Warsh's pullback from forward guidance. Not everyone agrees with the September 16 rate hike that came with it: RealClearMarkets contributor Peter Navarro says Warsh just repeated a mistake Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke both avoided by hiking into an oil price shock.

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finance 7 Sep 20 4 min read

Foreign Investors Bought $1.75 Trillion in US Assets Even as the 10-Year Yield Hit 5% and the Fed Resumed Rate Hikes

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Congress on September 15 that recent bond auctions rank among the strongest in 20 years, and new Treasury data shows foreign purchases of US stocks and bonds climbing sharply since 2024. But the Fed's surprise rate hike on September 16, a 10-year yield at its highest since 2007, and pointed criticism from Maxine Waters show the debt and inflation math still worries plenty of people who aren't buying the victory lap.

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economy 7 Sep 20 3 min read

Tariffs, Fuel Costs and a Fed Rate Hike Are Squeezing American Manufacturers

A small saw manufacturer in Iowa watched a $42 bracket jump to $87 this summer, and he's not alone. Tariffs, Iran-war fuel spikes and a September 16 Fed rate hike are hitting manufacturers, truckers and retailers at the same time. Some of this is Trump's trade policy working exactly as designed to cost money short-term, and pretending otherwise doesn't help anyone running a real business.

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finance 7 Sep 18 4 min read

Senate Republicans Defend Fed Rate Hike and Supreme Court Ballot Ruling Against Trump's Attacks

Since the Fed's quarter-point rate hike Wednesday, September 16, President Trump has lashed out at both the central bank and the Supreme Court in the same week, and Senate Republicans are publicly breaking with him on both. GOP senators including John Cornyn, John Kennedy, Mike Rounds and John Thune say the Fed followed its mandate and the Court correctly blocked a last-minute mail-ballot screening plan.

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finance 7 Sep 18 4 min read

Bank of Japan's 1.25% Rate Hike Passes 7-2, Two Dissents Shift Market Expectations on Future Tightening

The Bank of Japan's Friday hike to a 31-year high of 1.25% cleared with two board members voting no, and traders read that split as a sign Governor Kazuo Ueda won't tighten as fast as markets had priced in. The yen kept sliding toward 157 per dollar, Tokyo stocks jumped past 65,000, and Japan's record intervention spending from August is back in focus.

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finance 7 Sep 18 5 min read

Yen Falls Past 156 to the Dollar Amid Fed Rate Hike and Narrowing Yield Gap

The yen touched a seven-month high near 152 to the dollar in recent weeks on Bank of Japan rate-hike bets, prompting traders to abandon the yen carry trade for the Swiss franc and Swedish krona. Then the Federal Reserve raised rates with a hawkish outlook on Thursday, September 17, and sent the yen back past 156. The carry trade isn't dead, it's just looking for a new home, and the fight over whether the dollar or the yen holds the upper hand is far from settled.

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finance 7 Sep 17 4 min read

Bond Yields Ease Slightly After Fed's Rate Hike, But Warsh Signals More Increases Are Coming

A day after the Fed's first rate hike since 2023, the 10-year Treasury yield finally cooled off after eight straight days of gains. The relief may be short-lived: the Fed's own rate projections point to another hike before year's end, and the deeper fight over who controls the bond market, the Fed or the Treasury, isn't settled.

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finance 7 Sep 16 4 min read

Fed Raises Interest Rates for First Time Since 2023, Trump Demands Rates 'Should Be 1%, or Less'

The Federal Reserve unanimously hiked its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, citing inflation stuck at 3.4% and driven partly by energy prices tied to the Iran war. Trump immediately demanded a cut to 1% or below, setting up his first real clash with Kevin Warsh, the Fed chair he handpicked just four months ago.

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finance 9 Sep 16 4 min read

Fed Set to Announce First Rate Hike Since 2023 This Afternoon as Iran War Keeps Inflation Hot

The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day meeting today with a decision due at 2 p.m. ET, and traders are pricing in a 92-95% chance of a quarter-point hike, the first since 2023. Inflation is stuck above target because of Middle East oil disruptions, and the White House says it will respect Chair Kevin Warsh's call even though NEC Director Kevin Hassett admits he'd vote against a hike himself.

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economy 8 Sep 16 4 min read

Retail Sales Jump 1.2% in August, Beating Forecasts as Fed Weighs First Rate Hike Since 2023

US retail sales rose 1.2% in August, nearly double what economists forecast, with a 3.1% jump in gas station receipts reflecting higher pump prices rather than increased volume. The strong number lands hours before the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its first rate hike since 2023, with markets already pricing in two more by year's end.

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economy 9 Sep 16 5 min read

Iran Warns of Retaliation, Oil Tops $108, and the Fed Weighs a Rate Hike Today: A Rough Week for the Global Economy

Iran's Foreign Ministry has accused the U.S. and Israel of disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz after strikes on oil tankers, and oil has jumped to four-month highs as a result. That's landing the same week the Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates for the first time in three years, while the Bank for International Settlements warns the AI stock rally is cracking and debt keeps piling up in Washington.

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economy 8 Sep 14 4 min read

US Inflation Stuck at 3.4% as Diesel Hits Record $6.23 a Gallon and the Fed Weighs a Rate Hike This Week

August's Consumer Price Index came in flat at 3.4% annual inflation, but diesel just hit an all-time high of $6.23 a gallon as the Iran war disrupts oil shipping. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday with several regional presidents openly split on whether one rate hike will even be enough.

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economy 8 Sep 14 4 min read

Trump Tells Daily Signal He Won't Fight Kevin Warsh on a Rate Hike as August Jobs Data Complicates the Case for Cuts

Since Kevin Warsh's August 28 Jackson Hole speech signaled the Fed might raise rates instead of cutting them, a stronger-than-expected August jobs report has stripped away the dovish argument Trump was counting on. Trump told the Daily Signal on Monday he won't pressure Warsh to back off, even as he keeps insisting rates are too high, with the Fed's decision due Wednesday.

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finance 7 Sep 9 4 min read

Goldman Sachs: AI Spending, Not the Fed, Is Now Driving U.S. Borrowing Costs

Goldman Sachs says AI capital spending has become a bigger force behind interest rates than the Federal Reserve itself, as hyperscalers flood bond markets with debt and Treasury floods markets with T-bills to fund the buildout. The Fed's own bill holdings are up 130% this year, 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest level since 2001, and Goldman's economists are openly warning AI could be starving other sectors of capital.

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finance 6 Sep 8 5 min read

Asian Banks Rush Record Dollar Bond Sales Ahead of the Fed's September 16 Decision

RBL Bank, Bangkok Bank and Capri Global Capital are among a wave of Asian lenders locking in dollar funding before the Federal Reserve's next move, part of what Bloomberg Markets calls record issuance for the region. At the same time, Washington's own long-term borrowing costs hit a 19-year high in August, forcing the U.S. Treasury to double its bond buybacks just to keep yields from spiraling further.

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finance 7 Sep 7 4 min read

Yen Jumps to ¥154.06, Erasing Entire July Intervention Rally as BOJ Rate Hike Bets Build

The yen strengthened as much as 1.4% to ¥154.06 per dollar Monday, its best level since February and stronger than the peak Japan and the US bought their way to on July 31. Traders are betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike at its September 17-18 meeting and speculating Japan's giant pension fund could shift assets toward yen. Tokyo has now spent roughly $170 billion defending the currency this year, and it's still not clear the strategy works without the BOJ actually raising rates.

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8 sources

energy 6 Sep 7 4 min read

Australia's Central Bank Says the AI Data Center Boom Is Now a Factor in Its Interest Rate Decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia has named the AI data center construction wave as an upside risk to inflation, right alongside oil prices and Middle East conflict spillover. Estimates put the investment pipeline at up to A$155 billion over the next decade, competing with housing and defense for the same workers, materials, and power. Americans are seeing a smaller version of the same squeeze show up on their electric bills.

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politics 8 Sep 4 4 min read

Trump Threatens to Halt Trade With Deficit Countries Unless the Fed Cuts Rates

President Trump used Friday's strong August jobs report to renew his demand that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cut interest rates, this time threatening to cut off trade entirely with countries that run surpluses against the U.S. if the Fed doesn't comply. It's a real escalation from a president who days earlier said he'd let his own appointee use his own judgment, and it lands right as the Fed's own governors are signaling a possible hike, not a cut, at the September meeting.

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8 sources

finance 6 Sep 3 3 min read

BoE's Huw Pill Pushes for Immediate Rate Hike as UK Gilt Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill told an Edinburgh audience the MPC should stop waiting and raise rates now, arguing a prompt quarter-point move beats a bigger catch-up hike later. He's still in the minority after being outvoted 6-3 in July, and markets aren't betting on him winning next time either.

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finance 9 Aug 31 4 min read

Fed Chief Kevin Warsh Talks Tough on Inflation, Rate Hike Odds Jump Back Above 50%

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell, told the Jackson Hole gathering on Friday, August 28, that inflation hasn't meaningfully improved in 65 straight months of running above trend. Markets responded by pushing September rate hike odds from roughly one-in-three back above 50%, a swing that's already hitting the Thai baht, Indonesian rupiah and other emerging-market currencies. The next real test comes with August's jobs report on September 4 and the Fed's meeting September 15-16.

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finance 7 Aug 29 4 min read

Fed Chair Warsh Signals Openness to a September Rate Hike, Mortgage Rates Hold Near 6.6%

Mortgage rates have drifted back up toward the year's highs, according to Zillow, Freddie Mac and The Mortgage Reports data. Meanwhile Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Jackson Hole conference on Friday that a September rate hike is on the table if inflation doesn't cool, and Treasury yields barely budged in response, meaning mortgage rates may not follow the Fed's lead either way.

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7 sources

finance 7 Aug 26 4 min read

Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Stuck at 3.7% in July, Rate Hike Odds Climb

Core PCE inflation held at 3.3% and headline PCE at 3.7% in July, both hotter than analysts expected, according to the Commerce Department. Markets now put roughly 40% odds on a Fed rate hike in September, up from under 33% a week earlier. Five years after inflation blew past the Fed's 2% target, Americans are still paying the price and the central bank still can't agree on what to do about it.

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finance 8 Aug 26 4 min read

Fed Signals Rate Hike Still Possible, ECB Set to Hike in September as Inflation Refuses to Quit

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting show officials openly discussing a rate hike if inflation doesn't cool, with three regional bank presidents already pushing for one. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is on track to raise rates in September to 2.50%, with ECB board member Isabel Schnabel telling Bloomberg more tightening is needed. Two years after the Fed and ECB started cutting rates, both are now flirting with raising them again, and neither has hit its 2% inflation target.

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finance 8 Aug 25 4 min read

Off-Balance-Sheet AI Debt Hits $3 Trillion, Nearly Double a July Estimate, as Even the Fed Can't Agree on the Risk

A Wall Street Journal analysis puts nine tech giants' off-balance-sheet AI obligations at roughly $3 trillion, almost double a $1.65 trillion estimate from six weeks earlier. Fed officials from Williams to Daly to Schmid are publicly split on whether this is manageable leverage among profitable companies or the early stage of a 2008-style credit problem, and 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest levels since 2007 suggest bond markets are starting to price in the strain.

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finance 8 Aug 24 4 min read

National Debt Hits $40 Trillion as the Fed Sits on Half the 10-to-15-Year Treasury Market

The federal debt crossed $40 trillion this month, hitting a threshold the Congressional Budget Office once projected wouldn't arrive until 2028. At the same time, the Federal Reserve owns more than half of all Treasury bonds maturing 10 to 15 years out, a legacy of pandemic-era bond buying that's now distorting the market Washington relies on to borrow.

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finance 4 Aug 23 3 min read

IRS Holds Interest Rate at 7 Percent for Q4 2026, Rolls Out New Automatic Penalty Relief

The IRS announced on Aug. 21 that interest rates on tax overpayments and underpayments will stay at 7% for individuals starting Oct. 1, unchanged from the third quarter. The agency also confirmed a new Automatic Exemption from Penalty program that will replace the old First Time Abate system for taxpayers with clean three-year filing records.

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finance 6 Aug 23 3 min read

Ethereum Breaks Its 2021 Record After Powell Hints at a September Rate Cut

Ether cleared its November 2021 high on August 22, jumping nearly 15% in 24 hours on Coinbase after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible September rate cut at Jackson Hole. Bitcoin gained a comparatively modest 4% in the same window, and the buyer base this time looks less retail-driven than it did four years ago.

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finance 5 Aug 21 4 min read

Lacy Hunt, a 40-Year Deflation Bull, Says the Fed Has Been Quietly Printing Money Since December

Hoisington Investment Management's Lacy Hunt says the Fed bought roughly $290 billion in Treasury bills between mid-December 2025 and June 30, 2026, calling it stealth quantitative easing dressed up as a restrictive policy stance. He's slashed his firm's bond duration from 21 years to under one and now expects long-run inflation of 3.5% to 4.5%, but not everyone agrees the debt and rate picture is actually abnormal.

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finance 6 Aug 17 1 min read Updated

Gold Nears $4,400 as Weak Retail Sales Data Sinks Rate Hike Odds

July retail sales fell 0.6%, the biggest monthly drop since May 2025, and gold jumped near $4,400 an ounce on bets the Fed stays put in September. Treasury yields rose anyway, and Iran's refusal to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz is adding a geopolitical premium the Fed can't control.

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finance 6 Aug 13 4 min read

Japan's Wholesale Prices Stay Hot, Setting Up September Rate Hike as Yen Defense Costs $200 Billion a Round

Japan's producer prices rose 7.2% in July, keeping pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates at its September 17-18 meeting. Meanwhile Goldman Sachs says Tokyo has enough dollar reserves for a couple more rounds of yen intervention like July's, but Goldman's own strategist admits the fix doesn't last.

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finance 6 Aug 12 4 min read

July CPI Report Set for Wednesday: Economists Expect Mild Reading That Could Keep the Fed on Hold

Wednesday's July CPI report is expected to show just 0.1% headline and 0.2% core monthly inflation, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. A tame number would give Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and the FOMC more room to sit on rates through the rest of the year, though the committee is already split on what comes next.

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finance 7 Aug 11 4 min read

Wednesday's July CPI Report Could Decide Whether the Fed Hikes Rates in September

Wednesday's inflation report is a coin-flip moment for the Federal Reserve, which is currently split 50/50 on whether to raise rates next month after a weak July jobs report and months of tariff-driven price pressure. Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, so any upside surprise on core inflation could hit stocks hard.

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economy 8 Aug 4 4 min read

Bessent Wants the Fed to Bankroll Japan's Yen Defense. That's a Bigger Ask Than the Intervention Itself.

Since Friday's coordinated dollar sales to prop up the yen, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has moved on to a bigger request: get the Federal Reserve to expand its FIMA lending facility so Japan can defend its currency without dumping Treasuries. That puts new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in a spot, deciding how far an independent central bank should go in propping up American financial diplomacy.

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economy 6 Aug 2 4 min read

New Federal Loan Caps Push States to Offer Their Own Student Loans, With Interest Rates Up to 10.5%

Congress capped federal grad school borrowing starting July 1 under Trump's tax and spending law, and states like Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Minnesota are stepping in with their own loan programs. These state loans carry the government's name but function like private credit, with rates that can beat or badly trail federal loans depending on the borrower's credit.

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finance 4 Aug 1 3 min read

Wall Street's Bond Managers Are Betting on Short-Term Treasurys, Not the Fed Cutting Rates

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this past week, and at least one major asset manager, Allspring Global Investments, says the smart money should stop chasing long-term bonds and focus on short-term Treasurys instead. The reasoning: the market is now pricing in the possibility of Fed hikes, not cuts, over the next couple of years.

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economy 7 Aug 1 3 min read

10-Year Treasury Yield Tops 4.7%, Higher Than When Trump Took Office. Rate Cut Promise Nowhere in Sight

Trump promised Fed rate cuts would be 'Rocket Fuel' for the economy. Instead, borrowing costs are higher than when he took office, the government spent $827 billion servicing debt this fiscal year, and his own new Fed chair Kevin Warsh won't say how he'll fix inflation. The tariffs, AI data-center borrowing binge, and Iran war are all pushing rates the wrong direction.

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economy 3 Jul 28 4 min read

New UK Education Secretary Lucy Powell Calls Student Loan Interest Rates 'Egregious,' Promises Review But No Fixes Yet

Lucy Powell, Labour's new education secretary, says fixing England's student loan repayment system is at the top of her priority list and repeats her past claim that Plan 2 interest rates are 'egregious.' She won't commit to any specific change, and the freeze on the repayment threshold that Rachel Reeves defended last year is still in place.

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tech 8 Jul 21 4 min read

The Fed Still Doesn't Have Access to Anthropic's Mythos AI Model, Chairman Warsh Tells Senate

Since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and then-Fed Chair Jerome Powell called banks in for an emergency briefing on Anthropic's Mythos model back in April, the Federal Reserve itself has been locked out of the tool it wants banks patched against. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the Senate last week he's still asking for access, months later. The agency in charge of supervising the banking system's cybersecurity can't test the very AI model driving the crisis.

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finance 5 Jul 21 3 min read

DoubleLine Says High Bond Yields Are Doing the Fed's Job for It, Bets on Zero Rate Hikes in 2026

DoubleLine Capital is loading up on shorter-dated Treasuries, betting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh won't need to hike or cut rates for the rest of 2026 because elevated bond yields are already squeezing the economy. Bank of America disagrees and still expects three hikes before year-end. The federal funds rate has sat at 3.50%-3.75% since Warsh took over in May.

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economy 7 Jul 16 3 min read

Fed Rate Hike Odds Fall to 4% After June PPI Posts Its Biggest Drop Since April 2025

Traders have all but erased bets on a Fed rate hike this month after Wednesday's PPI report showed producer prices fell 0.3% in June, the sharpest monthly decline since April 2025. The July hike probability, which was already low, has dropped to just 4%, and September odds fell from 59% to 41.5% in 24 hours.

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