NBER Study Links iPhone's 2007 Launch to Measurable Drop in U.S. Birth Rates
A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research used AT&T's early iPhone exclusivity as a natural experiment and found that wider smartphone access correlated with a meaningful decline in births. The methodology is credible enough to take seriously, even if causation remains debated. The researchers themselves note the nation's birth rate has dropped 22 percent since 2007, the year of the iPhone's introduction.