US Clears H200 Chip Sales to 10 Chinese Firms But Zero Chips Have Been Delivered

The Approval Exists. The Sales Don't.

The headline sounds like a win: the US government cleared H200 chip sales to Chinese tech giants. Reuters reported on May 14 that roughly 10 companies — Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, and several distributors — got the green light from the Commerce Department.

Each approved buyer can purchase up to 75,000 chips under US licensing terms.

Not a single chip has been delivered.

Beijing Is the Bottleneck Now

According to Sherwood News, China's government remains hesitant to approve the imports. The concerns are real: supply-chain security, foreign tech dependencies, and most importantly, Beijing's push to build its own domestic AI chip industry from scratch.

There are serious logistical complications on the American side too. Chinese buyers must certify the chips won't be used for military purposes. Nvidia must certify sufficient US inventory exists. And under an arrangement reportedly negotiated by the Trump administration, the chips must physically pass through US territory before reaching China — which Beijing views as a tampering risk.

So the US said yes. China said not yet. The chips sit in limbo.

Jensen Huang Boards Air Force One

On May 13, according to TradingKey, Huang boarded Air Force One in Alaska to join Trump's delegation to China — 24 hours after his name was conspicuously ABSENT from the White House's 16-member business delegation list. That omission triggered immediate market concern that Nvidia was being sidelined from Trump's trade diplomacy.

Trump personally called Huang, who then flew thousands of miles to catch the presidential aircraft. Trump posted on Truth Social to shut down what he called "fake news" about Huang's absence.

Analysts aren't buying the triumphant optics. TradingKey reported that analysts view the Air Force One appearance primarily as a PR correction rather than a policy breakthrough. Export control "red lines" don't move because a CEO gets a seat on a government plane. The analysts' view: it might accelerate H200 approvals or clarify a compliance path for Nvidia's newer B30 chip, but the performance ceiling on what Nvidia can sell China is not shifting.

The Damage

Nvidia's China revenue has collapsed from 26% of total sales in fiscal 2022 to roughly 5% by Q3 2025, according to TradingKey. Jensen Huang himself has publicly stated that Nvidia's share of China's AI accelerator market has "fallen to near zero."

For context: before US export controls tightened, Nvidia held approximately 95% of China's advanced chip market, per Reuters. The current position is effectively zero high-end sales.

The Competition Filled the Vacuum

While Nvidia was frozen out, Chinese domestic chipmakers moved in. Per tech-insider, companies like Cambricon saw rapid revenue growth during the freeze. Huawei is leading the charge — TradingKey reports that domestic AI chip shipments now account for 41% of the Chinese market, with Huawei driving that number.

The domestic alternatives still primarily match Nvidia's older H20 specification, not the H200. But if Beijing keeps stalling on H200 imports long enough, Chinese firms will eventually close that gap — or simply accept lower-performance chips as acceptable.

Every month of delay is a month China's domestic industry cements itself.

UBS and Foxconn Add Tailwinds Elsewhere

While the China situation remains unresolved, Nvidia's other indicators are strong.

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised his price target on Nvidia to $275 from $245 ahead of Nvidia's quarterly earnings report, forecasting Q1 FY2027 revenue of roughly $81 billion — above FactSet's consensus estimate of $79 billion — with guidance expected in the $90-91 billion range, according to CNBC. Arcuri specifically cited Nvidia's upcoming Vera Rubin Platform as a major growth driver in the second half of this year.

Separately, Hon Hai (Foxconn) — Nvidia's primary server assembler — reported Q1 net profit of NT$49.92 billion, up 19% year-over-year and ahead of the NT$48.88 billion estimate, according to Sherwood News. Foxconn maintained its full-year outlook of "strong" revenue growth driven by AI server demand. That's a direct read-through to Nvidia's data center business.

Of 61 analysts covering Nvidia, 57 have a buy or strong buy rating, per CNBC. The stock is the largest in the S&P 500 by market cap at over $5 trillion.

What the Approval Actually Means

Most coverage treats the H200 approval as a positive development for Nvidia. An approval with zero deliveries is a press release, not a business result.

The real situation is a standoff: Washington approved the sales, Beijing won't take delivery, and Jensen Huang is doing diplomatic work to unstick it. Meanwhile, China's domestic chip sector grows every single quarter the deadlock continues.

The antitrust wildcard isn't getting nearly enough attention either. TradingKey flagged an ongoing antitrust investigation in China that could result in behavioral restrictions on Nvidia — a separate pressure point that most coverage is ignoring entirely.

Where Things Stand

Nvidia is a $5 trillion company with extraordinary AI tailwinds and a China-shaped hole in its revenue that used to be worth tens of billions of dollars a year. The US government gave the green light to fix part of that problem. Beijing hasn't blinked.

Until actual chips cross actual borders, this is a diplomatic negotiation — not a business recovery.