The Ceasefire That Wasn't

The 72-hour ceasefire Donald Trump announced Friday, May 9, expired Monday with at least two people dead and seven wounded — including a 14-year-old boy — in Russian strikes on Ukraine's Kharkiv and Kherson regions, according to Associated Press reporting via PBS News.

Russia's Defense Ministry claims it "strictly observed" the ceasefire. Ukraine says Russian drones, bombs, and artillery never stopped.

Both can't be right. People died during a ceasefire.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War analyzed NASA satellite data and confirmed military activity decreased but did NOT stop after Trump's announcement. ISW stated bluntly that "ceasefires without explicit enforcement mechanisms, credible monitoring, and defined dispute resolution processes are unlikely to hold."

A handshake ceasefire with no enforcement is just a press release.

The Positions Haven't Moved

According to PBS News, Putin still demands all of the Donbas — Ukraine's industrial heartland — even though his army hasn't fully captured it. Zelenskyy says he won't surrender it. Full stop.

Zelenskyy has offered a face-to-face meeting with Putin. Putin has refused until a negotiated settlement is "almost finalized." How does that work exactly? You won't meet until you agree, but you can't agree without meeting?

Putin reportedly floated former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder — a man with well-documented close business ties to Russia — as a potential intermediary. That tells you everything about how seriously Putin is treating this process.

Trump called the ceasefire "the beginning of the end" of the war. The data says otherwise.

The Diplomatic Record

Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Steven Pifer laid it out in an April 29 analysis: Trump's chief Russia-Ukraine negotiator Steve Witkoff has traveled to Moscow eight times since March 2025. He has yet to visit Kyiv. Not once.

The Biden administration operated under the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." The Trump team apparently doesn't feel bound by that. Whether you liked Biden's approach or not, the basic logic is sound — you don't negotiate someone else's surrender without them in the room.

Pifer also flags a major unknown hanging over the entire process: what exactly did Trump and Putin agree to at their August 2025 meeting in Anchorage? Russian officials keep referencing something they call the "Anchorage understanding" as the basis for Russia's current demands. Trump said afterward that it was "really up to President Zelenskyy to get it done." Neither leader provided specifics. Neither took questions.

According to Pifer's analysis, Trump reportedly told European leaders after that meeting that he supported Kyiv ceding all of the Donbas. If accurate, that represents a significant shift in how the negotiations are being conducted on Ukraine's behalf.

Zelenskyy's December Optimism vs. May Reality

Back in December 2025, Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv that U.S. proposals were "quite solid" and that "nearly 90%" of Ukraine's demands were incorporated into draft agreements, according to Associated Press reporting via PBS News.

The proposed framework included a 20-point plan, security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe, EU membership for Ukraine, and maintaining Ukraine's military at 800,000 troops.

Five months later, we have a failed 72-hour ceasefire and the same irreconcilable core demands from both sides.

Between December and May, the momentum shifted dramatically without public explanation.

What WSJ Gets Right — and What It Misses

The Wall Street Journal's framing of Kyiv entering a "hopeful spring" after a brutal winter captures the mood on the ground. Ukrainian resilience is real. Battlefield dynamics have shifted in places.

But optimism in a capital city doesn't translate to progress at the negotiating table. The WSJ framing risks making the war feel like it's trending toward resolution when the ceasefire data says the opposite.

What This Means for Americans

The U.S. has poured over $100 billion into Ukraine since the 2022 invasion. American taxpayers deserve a straight answer on what the diplomatic strategy actually is.

Right now, we have a negotiator who visits Moscow eight times and Kyiv zero times. We have a secret "understanding" from Anchorage that neither side will explain publicly. We have ceasefires with no enforcement that last 72 hours and kill people anyway.

If Trump wants credit for ending this war, he needs to show his work — publicly, specifically, and with Ukraine actually in the room. If Putin won't budge and Zelenskyy won't budge and our envoy keeps flying to Moscow, at some point the American people deserve to know whether we're brokering peace or just running down the clock.