The Rush Is Real. So Are the Red Flags.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order in April 2025 directing federal agencies to fast-track permits for deep-sea mining. One year later, the results look impressive on the surface: millions raised, stock prices surging, at least nine companies in active talks with the government for access to seabed minerals, according to an Associated Press review by reporter Helen Wieffering.

Sections of the seafloor from American Samoa to Alaska could be auctioned off for mining as early as this summer. If that happens, it would mark the first time any nation has commercially mined the seabed in international waters. Ever.

What's Actually Down There

The main prize is polymetallic nodules — fist-sized rocks that form over millions of years from the remains of shark teeth and shells. They contain manganese, copper, nickel, cobalt, and some rare earth elements. According to AP News, other seafloor targets include mineral-rich crusts on volcanic seamounts and hydrothermal vent deposits laced with gold and silver. Closer to shore, companies want to dredge ocean sands for titanium, zirconium, and phosphorites.

Those minerals are genuinely critical. They go into EV batteries, defense systems, electronics — the backbone of modern tech. And right now, China dominates the global supply chain for most of them. Trump's framing of this as a national security and economic independence issue is not without merit.

The question isn't whether the minerals exist. They do. The question is whether these specific companies can actually get them out of the ocean floor at scale, at a profit, in any reasonable timeframe.

The Companies: Uncertain Track Records

A close look at the companies involved reveals uncertain track records and histories spattered with legal disputes, according to the AP's investigation. The reporting describes a pattern of financial uncertainty across the sector, though specific company names were not available in the source material.

Victor Vescovo — a private equity investor and deep-sea explorer who has personally dived to the deepest points on Earth — chose not to back any of these companies. Vescovo, someone who knows the ocean floor better than almost anyone alive, does not trust their financial models.

"It just feels right to people thinking that there is a cornucopia of metals on the bottom of the seafloor that are just there to be plucked up like seashells on the seashore," Vescovo told AP News. "If there's more scrutiny on their actual financial models, you would go, 'Wait a second, this is much more uncertain.'"

The Processing Problem Nobody Is Talking About

Even if these companies successfully extract nodules from the seafloor, major questions remain unanswered: how will those minerals be processed and refined once they're topside?

According to the AP's reporting, processing critical minerals requires industrial facilities, chemical expertise, and supply chains — most of which currently exist in China. You can't haul rocks out of the ocean and plug them into a battery factory.

The practical challenge is stark: the effort to cut China out of the minerals supply chain could fail at the finish line because the U.S. lacks the domestic refining capacity to process what would be extracted from the seafloor. This infrastructure gap has received little attention in policy discussions.

What the Media Is Getting Wrong

Left-leaning outlets are covering this primarily as an environmental story — reefs, ecosystems, disruption to deep-sea habitats. Those concerns aren't unfounded, but framing this only as an ecological issue ignores the legitimate strategic imperative.

China controls the processing of roughly 60-80% of the world's rare earth minerals and holds dominant positions in cobalt and nickel supply chains. The U.S. has a real national interest in changing that equation. Fast-tracking permits to explore American options is not reckless — it's overdue.

But cheerleaders on the right are making the opposite mistake: treating regulatory speed as proof of success. Moving fast on permits doesn't mean the underlying companies are viable. The government fast-tracking a process for companies with legal disputes and unproven technology is not a win — it's a gamble with taxpayer resources and potentially irreversible environmental consequences.

What Comes Next

Trump's strategic instinct here — reduce dependence on China for critical minerals — is sound. The execution is where things get murky.

At least nine companies are circling government contracts for seabed access. Some have troubled histories. None have a fully solved processing pipeline. Auctions could happen as soon as this summer, according to AP News.

The U.S. government is about to hand out commercial seabed mining rights — something that has never been done — to companies that skeptical deep-sea investors won't touch. The risks deserve scrutiny equal to the potential rewards.