The Summit Hangover Is Setting In

Trump called the Beijing meeting an "incredible visit" with "fantastic trade deals." That was Friday. It's now clear the market didn't agree.

Boeing — the one concrete winner everyone pointed to — saw its shares drop 3.8% the same day Trump announced China would buy "at least 200 aircraft." According to CBS News, investment advisory firm Capital Economics noted the initial order was smaller than analysts expected going in. Boeing's own statement said they "expect further commitments will follow after this initial tranche" — which is corporate-speak for "we're not there yet."

The biggest deal from the summit underwhelmed the market on the day it was announced.

What We Still Don't Know

Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. Trade Representative negotiator, told CBS News she expected "mega purchases of U.S. agriculture, energy and airplanes." Her verdict: "So far, it doesn't seem like Trump and his team have a lot to show for the visit."

David Meale, head of the China practice at Eurasia Group, put it more diplomatically: "Neither side has come out with a clear statement of details."

On energy — Trump said China agreed to buy "billions" in U.S. oil. But China energy policy expert Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy, told CBS News the oil commitment isn't confirmed and there's been no statement specifying volume. Zero barrels committed on paper.

The agriculture promises — "billions of dollars of soybeans" — similarly have no signed agreement attached. A White House official confirmed to CBS News that "more details on the agreements are forthcoming."

What the Tariff Numbers Actually Say

While the summit was generating headlines, the Tax Foundation published updated tariff tracking data from analysts Erica York and Alex Durante.

Trump's 2025 tariffs cost the average U.S. household $1,000 in additional taxes last year. In 2026, the new Section 232 and Section 122 tariffs are projected to add another $700 per household.

Those are tax increases. On Americans. Not on China.

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on February 20, 2026 that Trump's IEEPA tariff authority was unconstitutional, knocking the weighted average tariff rate down from 14.9% to 8.2%. Trump responded by slapping a 10% tariff on nearly all countries under Section 122 — covering an estimated $1.2 trillion, or 34%, of annual U.S. imports — effective February 24, 2026.

The Tax Foundation projects these tariffs will raise $956 billion in revenue over 2026-2035. But after accounting for the economic damage they cause — slower growth, fewer jobs, higher prices — the real net revenue drops to $697 billion. The difference is American economic output that simply disappears.

If the Section 122 tariffs expire on schedule after 150 days, the average effective tariff rate for calendar year 2026 will still be 5.7% — the highest since 1972.

What Mainstream Coverage Is Missing

Left-leaning outlets like CBS News and the NYT are focusing heavily on expert skepticism — which is fair — but they're underplaying a critical structural point: this is a negotiating pattern, not a failure yet.

Meale at Eurasia Group said it directly: "I don't think that means it's a failure or that those deals don't exist. They just need to cross the Ts and dot the Is."

That's a fair assessment. But there's a critical structural point both sides are glossing over: the Phase One deal in January 2020 had similar fanfare, and China never fulfilled the $200 billion in purchases it promised. According to Wikipedia's documented record of the trade war, by the end of Trump's first term that deal was "widely characterized by American media outlets as a failure."

The pattern is: announce deal, celebrate, China doesn't fully deliver, tariffs stay, American consumers keep paying.

The NYT argues Trump and Xi could reach a genuinely transformative deal — but notes both men "would need personality transplants" to do it. The real obstacle is structural: China has zero incentive to make firm commitments when Trump has already signaled he wants a win he can announce, and vague promises have worked before.

What This Means for Regular Americans

If you're a farmer waiting on those soybean purchases — don't plant extra acres yet. There's no confirmed volume, no signed agreement, and a historical record of China promising agricultural buys and then underdelivering.

If you're a consumer, the tariff math is simple: $700 more out of your pocket in 2026, regardless of what happens in Beijing boardrooms. That money doesn't come back because Xi agreed to shake hands in front of cameras.

If you're a Boeing employee, the 200-plane commitment is real progress — the company itself confirmed it. But the stock market's 3.8% drop on the news says professional investors think the full upside was already priced in, and the delivery timeline is long.

The deals from Beijing may eventually materialize into something real. But right now, they're IOUs from a country that has cashed IOUs before and delivered less than promised. The $700 tax hit on your household is NOT an IOU. That one's already in the mail.